Impressive rally off the 200d MA breakout last week. My gut feeling says we should pull back a little from here. Don't focus on headlines and news not related to monetary policy - only price pays! And be aware of the relentless bull stopping out increasingly weaker bears.
Impressive +30% rally off March 23 lows, capped by last week's bear trap and Monday's bounce to new cycle highs. Most of the fundamental news behind the rally long priced into stocks. So what to expect now? Pick your side and let me know your rationale in the comments!
3 for bulls:
- So far COVID-19 is evolving in line or slightly better than predicted by health...
Entered with 1 ES contract today after market close. Initiated at 2600, stop 2571, target 2700. Playing for a 5-day bounce hoping that selling exhasted on the NY session.
Fundamentals: Good macro data all over the place, earnings beats, steady investor inflows, and a nice reset to P/E ratios courtesy of the -10% correction we've just experienced.
I'm watching a major support line in AAPL stock at this juncture.
50-month moving average @92.80
The closing high from the last uptrend in AAPL, back in Sept 2013 @95.30
Lower Bollinger Band (from 20-month rolling 2 std bands) @90.9194
I'm long AAPL @94.87 as I believe the 10.52 P/E and the 2.42% dividend yield are a very good reward for taking the risk of...
THe S&P 500 reached it's bullish target at the 2000-2020 area (around 200-day MA on the daily chart) with a solid W-shaped recovery not unlike the one experienced on Q32015.
There are a couple of technicals that I'm using as a rationale to open short positions from current levels:
1. Lower lows on Jan-Feb,
2. RSI about to hit Overbought on the Daily chart.
Breakout off short-term resistance at 35$, and a more significant breakout off the June 2014 downtrend line, is positioning WTI Crude Oil Futures for a great long opportunity. Buying this breakout, targeting the next visible resistance target (Yearly Pivot and 50-week MA, also overlapping with the 200-day MA), and placing stops below the downtrend line, makes...
Early signs of topping on ZB futures. Distribution candles on the top, and failing yet again at familiar spot. Setup is not yet confirmed by RSI or MACD, though, and the long bond bounced a bit off the MA(9).
I'm inclined to open half of my position here. A daily close below MA(9) would lead me to open the second half of the short on ZB, targetting MA(200),...
OK, so here I'm holding a small long since thursday (via UWTI) and I'm thinking on selling it on the following days.. It's been fun, but gravity is strong with Crude Oil since late 2014 and it's best to cash in on quick profits.
I'm more interested on the price action around 35$ (Last line of support before the capitulation wave of early 2016). It's also around...
Still holding a small size on ES longs from an avg entry price of around 1854.
Targets and stops as shown. It's probably safe enough to move the stop to either the breakeven point, or below 1870 (S3 pivot daily).
The rationale is basically dip-buying. There's a lot of market chatter about the "death" of dip-buying...
Just opened a short on SPY at 199.82 (a tick below the 50-day MA). Stops and targets as shown. 3-day holding horizon. Tight stop because it 's against the trend and based purely on the 50-day MA being resistance.
Let's do it :)
(Im coming back to the trading desk this week after 3 weeks of vacations!)
Im opening a long EUR position to hold over the weekend and with a multi-day horizon. The rationale is both technical and fundamental.
Technicals: For the first time in a long time, EURUSD printed a Golden Cross (50-day MA is at 1.1174 vs 200-day MA at 1.1168), and the currency is trading...
Short-term play: Short USO opened con Thursday Sept 3 @avg. Entry Price 15.31.
- Short-covering rally that lost steam at the 50-day MA (Not pictured, around 48.75$ WTI).
- Nothing changed on the fundamentals during the rally... Save for some OPEC comments about getting "fair prices" for Crude Oil. Nothing onof substance still, though
- Shooting star...
(Sorry, reposting to show full chart)
Probably one of the most-watched Fib extensions in the market nowadays. The fibo 1.618 extension from 2007 highs - 2008 lows ('the Great Reccesion') is so far confirming as a top for the S&P 500. Questions about the validity of the study aside, it's accuracy is remarkable.
Technically speaking, August 2015 is shaping up to...
And.. the much expected correction on SPY finally started, with the two worst trading days of the year by far. 2.2 trillion USD was wiped out from global equities this week. This kind of traumatic incident usually has devastating consequences for some market participants: think, for example, of sellers of puts (esp. those with deficient delta and gamma hedging);...
positioning indications on the chart.
Entry levels chosen at mayor support points in the last 10 years.
Targets chosen on areas where the uptrend, if we get one, could find difficulty climbing higher.
The 'Long Oil' trade is a purely Contrarian idea, based on the notion that extremes in sentiment are always the best leading indicators of price tops and bottom
Sold short some TLT at the market close. Looking to add tomorrow right away if it gaps down.
Aiming for 123.40 (1° target); 122.33 (2° target and out).
RSI divs on 1hr usually work on this ETF. The only worrisome sign: SPY seems to be at a hard place and this is a 'risk-on' trade. Let's see how it goes.
SPY action has been getting pretty choppy as of late, with lots of intraday volatility and monstrous o/n gaps. I want to play it like this (There can be NO gap over 210.85 after the CNY deval thing in China that is causing some jitters in the Asia session; that's part of the rationale on shorting this, which would otherwise look pretty appealing for a Long):