Idea for UVXY:
- Mistakenly closed previous position too early, but at least it gives more confirmation in the thesis.
- DXY continuing its ascent, causing macro bearishness.
- Efforts to break above 200D SMA on SPX continuously rejected. Waited for an SPX below the put wall at 4350 "to be sure".
- There is risk in short positions pre-CNY, but there is a Quality...
Idea for Macro:
- Just as the Fed shifts their narrative from "transitory" to "persistent" inflation...
- November saw crude oil with a 6 sigma move to the downside. Oil is inflation.
- Eurodollar futures curve inverted from 2024-2026.
Next CPI print will be a bewildering miss, and by January's (December) print, the deflationary fears will start to settle, but...
Idea for MRNA:
- Contrarian bet
- Investors believing that Nu variant will be a boon for Moderna and vaccine stocks.
- I think the opposite. Exit for Vaccine pump and dumpers before the bear market.
- Either the Nu var is a ruse, and we dont need boosters (bearish MRNA)
- Or Nu var is resistant to all vaccines (bearish MRNA)
Either way, very cheap to fade it...
Idea for Bonds:
- US05Y and US02Y printed immense spikes in the pre-market. Glitch? Probably not. Bond market in general is having extreme events globally, US markets not immune.
- Not shown on TV, but HYG also printed -7% in the AH on Friday... and traded there for several minutes.
- Dollar is unstoppable with global shortage. Pension funds have elected to use...
Idea for GME:
- The MOASS is here.
- There is a global shortage of both US dollars and high quality collateral for debt (10-year US Treasury bonds). Why would the dollar be rising despite the high CPI prints? It's simple. To borrow, one must have collateral.
- CS's Zoltan Pozsar explained in Nov. 19th Global Money Dispatch that currently, this demand is caused by...
Idea for Natural Gas:
- I expect that the "Energy Crisis" is largely over globally, and the speculative excesses will deflate with risk off deleveraging into 2022.
- Already had called this reversal in energy:
A wicked weekly wick to stop this advance by none other than...
Idea for Gold:
- Today Goldman suggested a trade idea, courtesy of the bank's European strategist Bernhard Rzymelka who urges clients to "consider levered gold upside" which while attractive exposure in its own right is also cheap optionality on even lower real yields.
- "So lever up. This will probably be the best (and possibly final) party of our...
Idea for Real Estate:
- Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct.
- MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev:
- Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal.
- We will have...
Idea for VIX:
- Spot VIX sub 17 (quickly rising), 2 point spread has appeared between spot VIX and front month, with a high degree of contango in term structure, and a significant spread between Treasury volatility (MOVE).
- Daily Roll Yield 0.10~
- Possible to either capture spread, or have a low risk bullish bias.
- Positive correlation right now with Vol and...
Idea for Stocks:
- I think we will decline to Q2 2022 at the least.
- IMO, Market participants have completely misjudged inflation expectations and currency devaluation and mispositioned. Market seems largely positioned for goldilocks/reflation, inflation and growth, but nothing could be further from the truth. Inflation fears will not be talked about in 2022.