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This is my vision for USDCAD pair. We cannot predict what will happen in the near or medium term - it depends on sentiment - but in the longer period of time, we have probability of decline this pair.
Presented Idea is only an assumption, one of many possibilities which can happen.
Always invest consicously. The price can do anything at any time.
There is very high probability for AUDUSD for cyclic motion, given fundamental and supply/demand analysis.
Risk to Ratio is on the long side of the Market.
There is economic development in the world, commodities price should go up.
We never know what the price will do, but we have probability of the move and potential. Both of them are on long side for AUDUSD now, ...
Taking into account the current Price Action, momentum and overbought, there is a high probability of price drop, and the risk:reward ratio is at the level of at least 1:2 and more, depending on the method of entry and target. Definitely an interesting option for short positions.
Remember to invest consicously, pay attention and be aware all the time, have a good ...
This is my short explanation:
Analysis of demand-supply for the AUD and NZD currencies shows, that in the future there sholud be a stronger demand for AUD and weaker for NZD. We do not know what the market will do today or in the near future, will it notice it and will start to discount it, whether it will continue on the side of short positions. We rely on the ...
Presented Idea is an assumption depending on global supply/demand on currencies. In longer period of time, Euro should go down, has big potential to go down, it should weakening, but it will also depends on what Usd will do and how far it will go to the downside. USD has a big potential to go down and it can move in that direction even for a couple of months until ...
This is short explanation of my vision (more information and full analysis are available - contact me via email).
This is one of the best fundamental based trades nowadays. The Euro is overbought, Yen is sold heavily (I refer to CFTC Report). It gives the possibility of collapse of demand / supply for these currencies. The United States is going to raise interest ...
I think it is one of the best trades in upcoming weeks, months.
GBP has a very good potential to strengthen, governor Carney suggest in recent comments, repeats a hike may be appropriate in upcoming months, so the Central Bank is on the hawkish side. What is more, nowadays GBP is not appreciated as it should be, despite Brexit case. So there is some room for GBP ...
1. EUR/USD has potential to weaken - the price now is inappropriate to conditions in Euro Area - flat GDP which can negatively affect CPI in the future,
2. CPI is still far from ECB inflation targets - it will take a time to be confident about inflation growth and GDP,
3. Commodities like Gold have potential to growth in the future - it will positive affect ...
The price of NZD is inappropriate to economic conditions in New Zeland. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand wants NZD lower. The trade-weighted exchange rate has increased by around 3 percent since May, partly in response to higher export prices. A lower New Zealand dollar would help rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradables sector.
The last CFTC Commercial ...
1. OIL price and economy cycle which shows that commodities should go up (in long period of time),
2. Reserve Bank of New Zeland (RBNZ) Rate Statement & Monetary Policy Statement is on dovish site (as before),
3. Possible shifting in Bank of Canada Monetary Policy,
4. Global growth should positively affect on OIL price.
1. If dollar index go up, then ...
1. The last CFTC Commercial (Banks) report shows 5,850 long and 23,571 short for EUR/GBP X-rate, which is 4:1 ratio for sell EUR and buy GBP,
2. Preliminary CPI for Eurozone is not yet as good as expected, so the price for Euro now is not appropriate. Core CPI is still subdued, but Mr. Market buy Euro now because of assumption that there is a possibility in ...
The price now is inappropriate (is too high, but it doesn't mean that it cannot go up higher) to conditions, which are currently on global markets (us monetary policy, possible shifting in cad monetary policy, oil prices...)
There is one obstacle to fulfill this scenario - it is dollar index. If us dollar go up, then usdcad probably will consolidate or even go up ...
Prons (very shortly):
1. CAD is strongly correlated with oil price, which bias is on long side (long-term);
2. The Economic Cycle shows global growth which is going to broaden and continue;
3. Monetary Policy in US will probably affect on canadian economy and future path of canadian rates;
4. Bank of Japan Monetary Policy is on negative side with negative tendency ...
The pair USDZAR has quite good positive swap, which can lead to additional profits (carry trade).
The last CFTC report shows that Commercials have DXY (dollar index) 10,674 long and 59,033 short. It is almost 1:6 ratio, so it can lead to correction on DXY.
Presented idea is only an assumption, one of many possibilities which can happen.
The price can do ...
The current situation in Australia (rising credit debt, hot housing market, etc.), the tone of the Central Bank of Australia (neutral, but strengthening AUD may complicate economic transitions) and the strengthening of the dollar index point to the potential sell of AudUsd.