I've drawn in a upward channel showing us that while AUD is rallying, there may be a short opportunity to capitalize on. We have a bearish candle printed this past Friday and my target would be between .9166 & .9130
Sell the bounces!
IMO we have a bearish engulfing pattern playing out.
1. Price couldn't pierce the resistance line
2. Evening star candle in a up trend with progressively lower volume
3. AUD/USD has been and I believe continues to be a sellers market
4. China's economy is a proxy of AUD and China's eco data is dovish
With no signs of a correction, I expect us to break the blue trend line in my chart with a possible bounce on the 1st line of support, however geopolitical news will decide the currencies course of action and Tuesday will carry with it high impacting cables.
There's an obvious downward channel AUD seems to be following. This chart is designed to show only a possibility of direction and does not account for fundamentals even if it seems to fit geopolitical news and overall bias against the AUD paired with the USD.
We have two events upcoming in the news that could effect which scenario plays out, Monday Italian Industrial Production at Monday 3am CST (GMT -6:00) and Tuesday 4am CST (GMT -6:00). Video posted explaining chart @ http://daytradingfutures.net/2014/01/11/video-eurusd-futures-daily-technical-analysis/
Economic data to be released, in my opinion, will put additional pressure on the AUD currency. We had some positive news come out on 01/06/14 that didn't help the currency punch through the various lines of resistances drawn in blue.
The major events upcoming that more than likely will drive AUD down is (times ...
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 17 responded this week. This was less than normal, with many still away from their desks for an extended New Year’s holiday. Ten see prices up, while six see prices down and one is neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures ...
While the AUD rallied Thursday night and broke the sideways range that started around the 18th of December, it couldn't hold above the two lines of resistance. This will be a key point for AUD market open Sunday.
As the notes in my chart describe, I'm bullish GBP long-term due to the fundamentals and the head fake we experienced instead of the continuation and usual outcome of a symmetrical triangle in a downtrend pattern.
Again with my other charts recently published on NZD and AUD, Gold is also greatly influenced by the rise and fall of the USD. With USD strength expected into the 1Q and beyond of 2014, I am Short Gold.