Haven't posted on here in a bit. Figured I would share some plays that take advantage of the recent spike in volatility.
Airlines have taken an absolute beating, and if you put a gun to my head I would say that will continue. However I don't see it happening at the same pace and we should get a couple green days mixed in. The high IV has provided a very wide...
BTC-28FEB20 Put Ratio Spread
Sell 2x 2/28 6500P for 0.0430 ($315)
Buy 1x 2/28 7000P for 0.0700 ($510)
Net Credit: 0.0160 ($120)
Max Profit (if pinned @ 6500): Approximately 0.0850 ($620)
Margin Requirements: 0.2700 ($1975) due to Deribit not having complex orders
Break Even: $5,880
This is a neutral to bullish trade. Anything above 7000 and profits are capped...
Short 1/31 8500 Call
Short 1/31 6000 Put
Margin Requirement: .2 BTC
Credit Received: .0545 BTC
Profit Target: .02725 BTC
Expected Move: +/- $1200
End up with a slightly short portfolio delta, essentially delta neutral.
Generate over $10 daily positive theta.
Look to close at 50% max profit (credit...
Buy: 11/22 33p for .49
Sell: 11/22 37p for 1.61
Sell: 11/22 37c for 1.80
Buy: 11/22 41c for .40
Net Credit: $2.52 (Max profit if pinned at $37)
BP Reduction: $1.48
As seen on the chart, was able to cash in on an Iron Condor last earnings cycle in a similar range. Going to give myself a little more time to be right and look to pin $37 in the next 30 days. Not...
Hitting this one again. Worked out well last month. Only widening the strikes a bit to give more room and also increase max profit. This does add risk to the trade however, but with a greater probability of profit.
$X Iron Fly
Buy: 11/22 8p for .14
Sell: 11/22 11p for 1.08
Sell: 11/22 11c for .64
Buy: 11/22 14c for .07
Net Credit: $1.51 (Max profit if pinned...
$SPY Put Spread
Buy: 11/08 297p for 4.56
Sell: 11/08 292p for 3.11
Net Debit: $1.45
Max Profit: $3.55
Do not like debit spreads in general but taking my chances on a dip below $295.55 (break even at expiration) at some point in the next 28 days. SPY has seen a massive run in the last two days and we know how Trump tweets and China trade deal cycle work...
$CAG Iron Condor
Buy: 10/18 32c for .27
Sell: 10/18 31c for .49
Sell: 10/18 27p for .47
Buy: 10/18 26p for .28
Net Credit: $0.41 (Max profit if all expire worthless)
Buying Power Reduction: -$0.59 (Max loss on blowout)
Profit Range of $26.59 - $31.41 w/ 55% POP at expiration
$X Iron Fly
Buy: 10/18 13c for .10
Sell: 10/18 11c for .63
Sell: 10/18 11p for .66
Buy: 10/18 9p for .11
Net Credit: $1.08 (Max Profit if pinned @ $11)
BP Reduction: $0.92 (Max Loss)
Profit Range of $9.92 - $12.08
I believe we will get another wick higher (still shy of $6k) in the next couple days, however BTC is clearly running out of steam. A sizable, though reasonable (for crypto) retrace of around 20% can be expected. I will be targeting the lower $4700's before looking for the next move higher.
I know many people that are very bullish on this project and viewed it as a great buy at nearly 2x this price point. I will leave the FA to them, but from a TA perspective I finally see value in entering here. The r/r is very good at this level and we should see a substantial gain in a few short weeks. Much like the MFT play I posted yesterday, RSI hasn't reached...
Picked up some MFT today. BTC is on some shaky ground but alts actually held relatively well against BTC during this last dump after BFX/Tether FUD. This is simply due to the fact that there aren't a whole lot of people left willing to sell down here. So while MFT has been week, it is at a level where I see the risk being well worth the potential reward. As noted...