Dr_Roboto

Dr_Roboto Updated 

A trend line chart using log price to show that the S&P is still running pretty hot relative to historic trends. There are some good websites that use Mean Reversion Model, exponential fit, and inflation adjusted prices to show the same thing. I did a more visual analysis using trend lines. Hard to know how long price will stay at this level. The recent AI boom...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Closed below 200 day yesterday and pretty clear follow through today. You can see that that the price tested and is now back in the original down channel before the breakout in January. My guess is that we are at least going to test the center of the red channel and likely the blue trend line. Could even go as low as center of orange channel and test the purple...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Follow up to my previous post. The big sell today confirms that the 20 day EMA is lost and a test of the 200 day is next. Not sure how low it will go, but the blue trend line, the 200 day, and the previous orange trading channel should provide support. Lose that, then down to the dotted red center line around 3700. If that comes true, then there is ample reason to...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Looks like S&P is losing support of the 20 day SMA. You can see that it is currently clearly below the 20 day close SMA and now looks to below the 20 day low SMA. You can see in my chart that when this happens the indicator turns red and almost every time some level of pull back follows. How low is always the questions. It seems like the minimal pull back should...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

What I see is that the S&P has confirmed a new down channel (red) with Thursday's (2/2) peak after it broke out of the orange down channel made from the tops in March and August 2022. This new red channel is created with the two lows from June and October 2022 and the price action from May 21. If this holds, then bear market is still intact and price will fall. I...

Dr_Roboto

Another of my big picture looks at the NASDAQ. You can see that we had a strong rally off the bottom of the blue channel, and right now it is around the middle of the channel. In the big picture though, we have barely come down out of the massive QE and low interest rate bubble created after the financial crisis. I find it hard to get too into this rally, we saw...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

S&P broke above resistance trend line of the down channel yesterday. Is this a breakout with more upside or a fakeout? Trading rules say we should look for a test of the trend line before confirmation of the breakout. Market really wants to put 2022 in the rearview mirror, but let's see what happens.

Dr_Roboto

One of my ideas where I zoom out and look at the bigger picture for the NASDAQ using QQQ on the weekly timeframe. The technical analysis is pretty simple with a focus on the main trading channels and how the major peaks align. Hard to guess the markets direction, but there is definitely room to go lower to the support of the green channel. With 20 and 200 week...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Here is an update on my Tesla analysis. Hit the 1.618 fib extension just above $101 and saw a good support. Maybe a good bounce to the $130 level? I still think Tesla has more downside. Once the selling starts, it is hard to stop it. Could find good support at this level if enough people think this price is a good deal, but retail investors won't be enough. If the...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Here is my chart combining channels, trend lines, and waves. You can see that the NASDAQ has been fighting to stay inside the blue channel since mid-October, but has been trapped under the black channel. If it is going to hold, then this would be a good place. That would keep the blue channel bull rally intact. However, this week's rejection off the top of the...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

US500 (includes extended hours) showing resistance at top of the down channel started at the beginning of 2022. Is it time to breakout or is it more down? I say down, but I am hedging both ways.

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Tesla has lost several key support lines this year and now is making a serious move to the downside. IMO, it still has a way to fall before it finds solid support. Daily chart

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Another big picture view like my idea on the NASDAQ. Right now, it looks like on the monthly that the S&P has been testing the the purple trend line, but no success. From the looks of it, there is still a good size drop to come down to at least the bottom of the blue channel ($350) to test previous low, maybe even the center line of the purple channel around $325....

Dr_Roboto Updated 

It is important to step back and look at the big picture sometimes. The NASDAQ is testing the support of the green channel. May see a bounce here, but I think it is more likely that it tests the top of the blue channel in the coming month. Maybe more importantly the black trend line (around 9,500-10,000) looks like a good place to bottom in the near term. Let's...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Here are my core channels and trendlines. NASDAQ looks to be losing support of the blue channel. If so, I see 2 support trend lines: green line around 9500 and the red line around 8750. If we see the same abc correction wave from earlier this year, that will put us right at 8750 and the red trend line.

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Crazy two weeks with some massive price swings. However, all said and done the down trend that started in January is still intact. Big test yesterday of resistance but ultimately failed with the gap up closed and no follow through after Fed rate hike. Looks like a good old pump and dump. The gray region (connects to gap up in 4/21) that I drew seems to be a very...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

If you look back over this long correction since the beginning of the year, every time the price closed with a red candle below the lower bound of the 20 day moving average the price continued to move lower. I don't see why this time is any different. I would expect support at the $380 and maybe down to the $375 level. That would bring the S&P right around the...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

You can see that over the last two days that the S&P is jumped above the 200 day on Wednesday huge rally, which also broke above the April 2021 gap. However, today saw a rejection of the resistance of the down channel that started Jan 2022 ATH. This channel has rejected price solidly 2x times now. The most probable thing would be to see a rejection and to head...