A correction upwards could start soon. Under normal circumstances I would have assumed a retrace to around 1325 as a max but there is a glaring gap at 1342 so we might see an attempt to close the gap. The move is probably wave (D) of a converging triangle correction that has been in progress since December 2015. This upwards move should only be part of a...
See comments in link below If there is a break above 94.14 the rally up will continue but for now it seems like one more push down, potentially towards 90.5 before the rally up start
Key Levels: 94.14 and 91.53 A decline below 92.67 would signal the current move up was part of a correction . A decline below 91.53 would confirm it. The euro, sterling, and Swiss franc also looks corrective and at an end. This could suggests dollar weakness in the next few weeks. See graph blow in the updates for a Daily view
Looking at these pairs it would seem that all will retrace to previous higher or lower levels before the new direction resumes. The dollar index could be forming a cup with a handle, so down to +/- the 92 - 92.5 area before the rally resumes and take off. This could play out in the next week or two and bullish positions for the USD should be taken in the next...
A close above 13.40 in the next few days could be a indication that we could be heading to previous high at 13.95. A break above 13.95 will run to 14.15 and potentially 14.5 If the $ continues to strengthen the long trade will be very plausible.
Gold may be correcting five waves down with a converging triangle. Price might rise to the 1370 area, fall to the 1200 area, and rise to the 1300 area to complete the pattern and then begin to fall persistently in a new segment of five waves down. Most probable for me is that the high is in place and it should head down over the next few weeks
Looking at the potential wave counts it should be near the end of wave 4 If this is the case then we could see new lows in the next 3 to 4 months. However, should it break through the resistance line with a clear a Break above 1.385 we could see it continue higher to 1.42 and eventually 1.5 The way i see it it is more probable that it will start heading down...
The way I see it the most probable outcome is that it is at the top of a triangle as part of an ABCD pattern. If it breaks 1375 I will change my view to bullish which should be part of an ABC pattern that could take us to 1450. There is a few things counting against the bullish view at this stage: - Very overbought - FMOC coming up 19&20 Sept. Nothing major...
an Impulsive break above 110.6 clearing 111 could see 113 registered. A break below 108.1 and we are heading to at least 106.8 and potentially 105.6 I am looking for a short term long up to 113 and then a short down to 106
These pairs all indicting that they are close to breaking out or down I will probably back a probable negative view on these pairs backing a more positive view on the dollar in the next month or two
On a weekly view still working on the handle as part of the Cup with a handle formation. The next key level is 106: - 106.48 is at the 38.2% retrace level of the 2016 low - 106.66 is at the 61.8% retrace level of the low of the Cup. It should go down to 106 in 2017 and then start heading up to 120 in 2018 and probably 130 in 2019
Some key levels that are being tested: - 200 week MA Currently at 92.4 - The breakout support line as indicated on the graph - 2016 Low at 91.92 A break of the 2016 low could see the dollar heading for 86 to 87 We might see sideways action between 92 and 95 for a week or two before it heads up or the final blow towards sub 90 is given. Overall bearish sentiment...
A break of the 200 week MA and 2016 low could see the dollar going on the 80's I would assume that at these levels there would be at least a bit of a retrace and possible a turn up for a while
At the bottom of the target range now Could reach 0.815 to 0.82 after which it should be a short