We've been in the no trade zone (between 38.2 and 61.8) for a month now, ever since price got rejected by the 8/1 Gann. To be honest, I didn't think we would make it above the 4/1 Gann, so I've been staying away from this market.
Now, price action is revealing some weakness at these levels. The 61.8, as you know, is where longer-term holders and professional...
$TSLA has been rebounding for just over a month now, but is facing a pretty heady resistance line. Price action is lagging behind our model a bit, but if price can make it through the resistance we could see a huge rally as everyone who were doubters pile back in.
The hryvnia (UAH) continues to trade sideways while in consolidation in the "no trade zone." Recently, the currency strengthened against the dollar (USD) and initially it looked like an opportunity to go long on the USD. However, the weekly EMA50 (which historically has provided support for the USD) turned into resistance, broke the 3 year trendline, and now we...
The USD is currently sitting at a very strong support level against the CAD. EMA50 is also above EMA200 on the daily and weekly. Keep in mind that, technically, the pair is in a "no trade zone."
The Canadian economy is also experiencing a number of acute deteriorations vs. the US economy that could put pressure on bank balance sheets in Canada. Increasing...
We can see the US dollar has been gaining against the Canadian dollar for about a decade now. At the end of 2018 we had a break out from the bullish flag formation, but things are taking a bit more time to materialize as the breakout formed within the "no trade zone."
Wow! Huge gains in this market. Now we have entered the range between the 0.382 and 0.618 measured from $20k to the bottom near $3k. This is a "no-trade zone" where price is too neutral to make any significant bets. Above the zone I am bullish, but while we are in the zone and below the zone I am bearish.
A few weeks ago we got some nice yield inversion in the US treasury market, just like we did in Canada. I'm thinking the Fed will keep the Federal Funds Rate stable around here before cutting when bad nGDP data comes rolling in.
Looking at the chart we can see the 3 month yield inverted with the 10 year yield a few weeks ago so recession could be anywhere from 12-18 months out. The question is, where do we stabilize in this current down swing? Things will probably go sideways for a while before we break support and rates dive to zero. The catalyst will be nGDP figures and Bank of Canada policy.
Bitcoin dominance looks like its getting ready to resume the trend upward. Its not quite following our previous projection, but the break out from the descending wedge pattern will keep the chart bright until we see some major breakdown or weakness.
1) We see lots of upside due to the size of the descending wedge.
2) RSI forming falling wedge reversal
The 10 year Canadian yield is now below the 1 year and 3 month yield, which is a good indicator of a potential recession ahead. Rates follow economic growth, so we can interpret yields as a function of the economy. These interest rates also impact the price of money (CAD interest rates). One way to interpret lower interest rates in the Canadian economy is that...
Ukraine's Hryvnia looks poised for a reversal to the downside on the weekly and lower timeframes against the dollar. There could be a 5-8% trade in here.
1) RSI is currently indicating a trend change.
2) Price action is currently indicating a trend change
3) Volume profile is quite high which could indicate traders are soaking up USD by trading in their UAH as...
Following government bond yields can be crucial to understanding the underlying price action of banks stocks. Take this example of Canadian bonds and stocks. We can clearly see how, following a steady expansion in yields of various maturities, a trend break where bonds suddenly appreciated (yields go down when bond prices go up) the results were a change in trend...
Confirmation/Entry: 124.46 (ideal) / 188.78 (early)
Invalidation: Local high
Target: Three targets on chart
Pattern: 1) Weekly bearish impulse with 2) break of weekly EMA50, and 3) death cross on daily.