Exsilium

Exsilium

There are a confluence of indications that we have established a bottom. I very much hesitate to say this as it puts my reputation on the line, but I will outline my reasons in the following analysis. As a preface, I want to make it clear that charting Elliot Wave corrections is very complicated as there are over 20 possible counts and my use of Elliot Wave...

Exsilium

Bounce from 0.57 lows was limited by a combination of the (P+S1)/2 line and the 0.5 Fib of Wave 5 at 0.64. It appears we are in an ABC correction for the moment, with Wave C ending anywhere between 0.64 and 0.67. A move beyond 0.71 would convert this into a new bullish impulse wave, probably a Wave 5 situation. The Monthly Pivot sits at 0.75, but we are close to...

Exsilium

Bitcoin took a dive since my last analysis, currently at 7300. Ripple on the other hand has been relatively flat, currently at 0.60 still up 0.03 from its low yesterday. LOI has been fluctuating about 1,000,000 over the last 10 hours, also seemingly to ignore whatever it is that Bitcoin is doing. The purple line on the chart is the Monthly HA(P+S1)/2 Point, and...

Exsilium Updated 

Price broke past both the bullish trend-lines that formed the bullish Ascending Triangle and Bearish Pennant during the Asian session. The 4H RSI trend-line was also broken to the south, but is now in Oversold territory. We could see a bounce here, if only temporary. 4H RSI is oversold, and a break above the descending trend-line would be a good buy signal. 4h...

Exsilium Updated 

Ripple is currently testing the lower bullish trendline that forms the Bearish Pennant and Ascending Triangle. Yes you read that right, opposing formations. LOI is also pushing a new low since the beginning of the month. All indications point to a break of this trend-line to test 0.64 again. Regarding LOI - While the LOI was a little lower than where it is...

Exsilium

There has been no real direction for the last few days. This can be a very good thing or a very bad thing. As the price continues to meander along like this it winds up like a spring and when it finally breaks one way or another it will move quickly and you can expect big gains, or big losses. On another note, LOI actually decreased a little then flattened out....

Exsilium

Important Note: We are currently at the 0.618 fib of the Impulse Wave series from 0.46 - 0.96. The breach of the ascending trend-line that was forming the bottom of both an Ascending Triangle and a much larger Pennant was breached yesterday and as proposed in my analysis yesterday 0.64 was tested again. The orange dashed line in the chart is the (P+S1)/2. In my...

Exsilium

As you can see from this chart, the 4h RSI trend-line has broken, as well as the bottom of the Ascending Triangle. I dont see any immediate follow through so this might be just a poke and not a break, but keep an eye on it if you need to set a stop loss or want to go short.

Exsilium Updated 

As expected per yesterday's analysis, price has continued sideways in the Ascending Triangle. There is probably 2-3 more days of this if the Ascending Triangle fills out. Ascending Triangles are usually bullish patterns, but I have to make it clear that it is possible it can break down, so set your stop losses accordingly. The top of this Ascending Triangle is...

Exsilium

I expect a few more days of sideways movement between 0.70 and 0.75 as $XRP fills in the Ascending Triangle formed between Monthly Pivot and the bullish trend-line plotted. In theory $XRP should move up the length of the flag pole plotted in yellow, but I do expect a pause at the bearish trend-line plotted. We should have enough technical grounds to break past...

Exsilium Updated 

Monthly Pivot 0.75 proves to be problematic resistance as mentioned earlier. RSI trend-line still holds, but a break of that before break of Pivot means re-test of 0.64. 4h LOI is dropping and has only gained 1.05 million since 0.64. For comparison, LOI would have to increase another 10.4 million for us to be in the 0.90's again. In other words, I do not see any...

Exsilium Updated 

In my last analysis I mentioned that for the bounce to really be confirmed it would need to get past the 2nd bearish trend-line. Instead of breaking it, $XRP touched it and retreated, further validating that trend-line. However, at the moment of touch, like a drowning person reaching up in a desperate plea for help, $XRP had simply ran out of air with indicators...

Exsilium

For a while now I have been a fan of the "half pivots", like the (P+S1)/2 we just bounced off of, and which I suggested would provide support. We have now past the first short term bearish trend-line and are approaching the second, but I believe the break of the first is the first real confirmation signal that we have in fact bounced. In addition, 4H RSI is...

Exsilium Updated 

XRP breaks through Pivot @ 0.75 after breaking down through bullish flag and RSI channel. The (P+S1)/2 is at 0.64. 4H RSI is under 20 and is extremely oversold. The 0.63-64 area also provided solid support a month ago and back in March. This confluence of support should hold. If not, were looking at 0.55-56.

Exsilium Updated 

The Asian market saw the price break below the bullish trend-line that was supporting this correction from the 0.48-0.96 wave. A break below 0.78 would invalidate Wave 1 at which point I would have to re-evaluate the count. A break below 0.75 would be a short time bearish sign in my opinion with a potential fall to 0.64. The Monthly Pivot of 0.75 should provide...

Exsilium Updated 

From an Elliot Wave analysis, this correction has been difficult to chart. Since I wouldnt feel confident in any analysis when it comes to Elliot Wave theory at this point, I am not going to include any such analysis until after I feel confident a correction has in fact been confirmed by a new high above 0.96. I could try and plot lesser degree Elliot Waves, but...

Exsilium

Correction patterns are by far the most difficult to plot. It pains me to admit this, but right now I don't know how to plot this. Every time I think I got a solid plot set up the price does something different. I think this could be an WXY double correction (two ABC's), but it could just be the beginning of a triple correction. In other news, we have new Pivot...

Exsilium Updated 

This ABC correction has been difficult to plot, let alone analyze. There has been a lot of call for a Wave C (also Wave 2 of higher degree) to retrace to the 0.50 fib of the last series, which is normal for Wave 2. I saw 0.77 as a pretty big line in the sand so disagreed and instead expected a Flat ABC Correction wave. It appears that were going to end up with...