SEK Inflation data due shortly.
Given the recent PMI data, we are expecting
a worse print, which would catch the market
off guard and send USDSEK higher.
EURSEK is also another consideration for the trade.
Enter AFTER the data - do not anticipate.
Markets are now very sensitive to data.
Worse ISM on Tuesday and worse ADP yesterday
have sent stocks lower and have generated a broad risk-off tone.
Today everything hinges on the ISM Non-Manuf.
report due at 16.00 CET.
If, as we expect, the print comes in worse, we will look to sell the Dow.
Target is 25250s.
The AUD has seen a very tight range last week, across the board. Tomorrow we will get the RBA's decision and that will likely be the catalyst for a pickup in volatility.
We believe the odds are for a dovish hold...which might disappoint the markets.
Last week RBA Governor Lowe noted the difficult external environment, but he also repeated three times that the...
NZD was hit hard after ANZ Activity outlook fell to -1.8 (lowest since 2009) and business confidence fell to -53.5 (lowest point since 2008).
We like selling NZDUSD in the 6270/80 area looking for a break of recent lows, which would open up further downside towards 6200.
While other central banks are easing,
the SNB keepT rates on hold, reiterating Swiss Franc remains overvalued, Adjusting the basis for calculating negative interest.
The reaction has been a consolidated push
higher for the CHF and we like selling AUDCHF
on the back of this news since all big banks in Australia are now expecting the RBA to cut rates at the next...
USDCAD is within a defined range ahead of
We have CPI coming up today and the odds
are for a worse print.
However, we would suggest fading any break beyond the range, and waiting for FOMC to get
the true direction.
Saudi officials have calmed the markets aying that they will be back up and running in no time.
The attack was less a shock than expected and Crude is back down to the main support line: 59.00.
A break below here would probably test 55.00.
Just beware that today Saudi officials will bring fourth evidence on who was behind th attacks (Iran apparantly)
The ECB is expected to do 4 things: cut rates by 0.1% to -0.5% (1), with the mitigating measure of tiering (2). Furthermore, the market expects and extension of forward guidance (‘at present or lower…well past the horizon of net asset purchases’) (3); the market expects the reintroduction of QE for 12 months at a pace of 30-40 bln per month (4).
The market is...
Eyes on Dow and risk appetite today into the NY session. It's going to be an important two days for U.S. stock investors. A slew of economic data from payrolls to services PMI figures to durable goods orders have taken on even more significance, after the unexpectedly poor reading from the ISM purchasing manager's index this week.
With many investors pointing to...
Despite the rally in risk assets, the negatives that sent the EUR lower have not changed. The economic gloom in Europe remains and, despite the north-south divide on the ECB board, many still expect policy easing, if not in September than before year-end as Christine Lagarde ascends to the presidency. Thus EUR/CAD is likely to continue to trend lower. Larger...
GBP in the spotlight. The Pound bounced from sub-1.2000 levels to end higher on the day after PM Johnson lost his working majority in the House of Commons (following a defection) and after the opposition defeated the government 328-301 and seized parliament.
The coming hours will be crucial for the pound - watch for headlines surrounding a vote to call for a...
Focus is again on Brexit with the UK House of Commons returning to session. It looks like we are heading for a snap election sooner than expected. Today there will be an emergency debate on a bill trying to force PM Johnson to ask and accept another Brexit extension until 31 January in case no deal is reached no later than at the EU summit 17-18 October. A...
The biggest move in markets this week has been the USD.
The trade weighed USD keeps pushing higher to the strongest level in two and a half years.
Today we also have the ISM due, and we forecast
it to come in better than expected, which would
also enhance USD strength.
Alongside general EUR weakness, we suggest
selling EURUSD on a retracement to prior
The Italian political scene
seems to be calming down
with some kind of agreement
between 5-Star movement and
the Democratic Party.
Traders would very much like to
see the cautious DP back in power
as they would likely defuse the tension
between Italy and Brussles.
We like continued upside today, with the
US being away for Labour Day.
Buy intraday dips ahead of...
Trump surprised markets once again yesterday
and announced that tariffs will be delayed to 15
December on a range of goods such as mobile
phones, computers and video game consoles .
The announcement led to a jump in equities and
bond yields along with a surge in the oil price and yen.
In the absence of other dynamics, there may be marginal upside to be had...
Equity markets are lower today, on the back of
lingering trade uncertainty and also HK protests.
Embattled Hong Kong leader Lam said the Asian
financial center is at risk of sliding into an
“abyss". This is influential since it is de-facto a
Chinese matter, which won't help the already
tense international situation with the US.
We continue to expect downside...