I believe this downward trend line is extremely significant, I would not consider a long position until it has broken it, and even then I would expect a retest if this structure.
I would target a profit in the region of 5850-6030 if it does break.
Should the TL hold firm I would expect a move to 4,000 fairly sharpish.
I believe we will have a breakout from this structure before April. It could move in either direction but realistically the risk is to the upside.
I personally don’t trade this but a useful indicator for other related markets.
Here is a Overly simple curve that for me fits with a squeeze towards 30,000 with the market having to work harder and harder for smaller gains.
This would coincide with a VIX trend line which could suggest a breakout in March/April time