After the mini bull market ended in July, we consolidated deep inside demand for a while, a concerning warning sign. One last exit pump / short squeeze (the Me pump) then bear market continuation.
However, we've already tested support 5 times - buyers are exhausted and Rule of 5/6 applies. If we return for another test,...
I don't think the bull market is over but imo 60-62k is still a good place to hedge in case we see a larger drawdown.
Ideally BTC keeps ranging so alts keep pumping, then BTC breaks out sometime this summer (white)
Scam Triangle Pattern:
- Frequently a flat bottom
- Moderate impulse down to trigger long stops and breakout shorts
- Massive markup that stops out breakout shorts and triggers breakout longs; frequently supasses the top of the triangle
Update on the original idea. Going according to plan. We're still completing the first downswing.
Within the 53.2-51.3 gap is a good candidate for the next 4H bottom. Then recover to at least 55k, the next decision point, which should be determined by macro fundamentals.
Was just checking up on the health of alt season when I realized that the chart looked real familiar...
Of course, it's a fractal, so all the usual caveats apply. But the similarities are striking - even the timeframes match. *Arguably*, alts have been in a bear market vs BTC since their peak (i.e. BTC.D low) in Sep 2020. An alt crash would be a continuation of...
Feeling cute, might short the bullish BMS’s 2nd HH and channel deviation at the 30k range OTE, arc resistance, and previous POC into a second tap of 2H supply and 4H pivot as a countertrend mean reversion play fading the overextended upswing contingent upon seeing some short liquidations 😘
Detailed notes on chart.
We got our first bearish BMS and a channel breakdown after 3 continuous months of higher highs and higher lows. This dump may be the beginning of the first major downswing since October. Need to reclaim 3870 to be bullish again.
There, we should see a bearish response - planning to hedge my lev long exposure in the low 36ks.
Progress should be slow since we've yet to test the PoB supply at 34k. Bullish but it's not rainbows and sunshine yet
Eventually, we'll need to enter an extended consolidation period to catch a breather before continuation or transition into a bear market.
Note also that the $20k ATH was 16.6x the previous previous bull run ATH of $1200. 5x from the previous bull run ATH of $20k is $100k, 7.5x is $150k, and 10x is $200k.
So, set optimistic targets at $200k+? It sounds...
The dollar can still fall a long way (which would be very bullish for risk-on assets). But we're also at demand, a logical area to start a year long upswing. That'd mean a full blown bear market and global risk-off; a year of pain.
The direction should be clear by late Feb
If indeed we transition into a 2021 bear...
Current PA reminds me of the pain I felt in early Oct
I hope this is wrong since (a) I'm hedge short and (b) I want to buy BTC lower but here's some bullish hopium if you're looking for a justification to long right at resistance
Here is something more realistic, that takes into account how Bitcoin matures over time.
The ratio between the percentage gains of the two major Bitcoin bull runs (2011-2014, 2015-2017) is 4.85:1.
Applying this ratio to the 2015-2017 bull run, this would place our next high at ~80k. Which definitely sounds reasonable, as Bitcoin is no longer the $12 fringe asset...