For anyone who attended one of Tone Vay's workshops we've got a nice 9 bottom and reversal here on the Aussie. It's been in this range for some time and the selling was exuberant so if anything we'll get either a counter-trend rally or more consolidation within this range. @tonevays
So it's no exactly textbook or very pretty but it looks like gold is forming a nice cup and handle formation. I think a daily close above US$1590 would be confirmation that we've bottomed here and the bull trend continues...
Looking at 30 year UST yields key levels are at 2.2% and 2.4% on the weekly chart.
Break and close above 2.4% could indicate we have bottomed, but close below 2.2% and we're probably heading lower, meaning the rally in yields (sell-off in bonds) was a retracement of the heavy buying buying before the rally in treasuries continues.
Since I have a preference for naked charts I have not traded bitcoin for a very long time (and there are finally good opportunities in the fx markets). But right now we're looking at a decent right angle triangle which normally signifies downside to come if we close below the base at approximately $9,500. See page 88 of Richard Shabacker's book.
For the past 18 month the USDJPY cross has been quiet.
Zoom out to a monthly candle chart and it appears to have formed a flagpole (late 2012-mid2015) and a pennant (mid-2015 - late 2018).
Last few months had a pickup in volume breaking out of the upper line of the pennant and from the top of the flagpole to the lowest point of the pennant represents a 50%...
I'm seeing the same pattern on both futures for the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 on a 12 hour basis, a potential pivot point and down leg for us equities.
Not trade-able until next candle confirms or rejects the trend.
The XJO (Australia 200) to me has been the early daily indicator of risk sentiment and it is risk off at the moment.
Selling the NZDCAD at 0.9024 on the price flip
The CAD has been hit hard as it's highly correlated to the price of oil, looks like oil is basing for the time being.
Stop on this one is above 0.9110
Target: ride the (potential) 9 wave count down with a trailing stop loss.
Sell EURUSD at current rate 1.1398
Signal: 8 candle and next candle is already trading lower.
Stop: Above the TDST line at 1.1447
Macro events this week that could lead to volatility in this trade:
Eurogroup meetings & ECB minutes on Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday
This is a good setup to sell the AUD vs the USD.
We have the 9 candle inflection and the next candle is trading lower early and even before European exchanges open.
BE WEARY because there's key macro data coming out on Wednesday (14 November) from both Australia and China that can lead to a lot of volatility in any AUD pairs.
Your stop is above 0.7308 and...
Many of the European Indices are entering a bear market (50sma<200sma).
Shorting is difficult this early in a trend because counter-trend rallies can be explosive and rip through your stops.
The TI indicator that Tone Vays uses is brilliant for finding these inflection points when these counter-trend rallies run out of steam.
The Ibex hit a 9 candle inflection...