So it seems that BTC is not doing the gold chart fractal. It is now almost certainly ivalidated.
Instead, it does what it always liked to do best: Long plateaus after a small pre-rally.
This rally from 3k to 14k was really similar to the one in mid 2012, and the one in late 2015/early 2016.
And every time after such runups, btc like to relax for a long...
A quick comparison to 2012 shows that BTC will probably go sideways for a long time, and could dump down to the 9000 area.
It will probably hit the weekly middle bband at some point, as back in 2012.
This would also align with the halving timing, and the stock flow model, etc, showing the ATH to be reached in 2021.
Should it now suddenly pump and go past 13.9k,...
If BTC decides to take the slower route, which I really hope, we could see some months of sideways action.
The other possibility would be the gold fractal, if it now pushes through 13.9k.
I however hope for this sceario here, because this would allow all indicators to cool off, then having more steam for the next push where BTC will attack the old ATH.
I had previously drawn scenarios where BTC would take the "normal" route that we all know, where we'd see the All time high, sometime after the bitcoin halving.
But because this time BTC is half a year faster in the cycle than back in 2015/16, we would see the ATH already by late 2020, or early 2021.
However, as I posted previously, if BTC decides to do the gold...
Every time we look at the monthly BTC chart, we learn some interesting stuff regarding the longer timeframe development of BTC.
For example we can clearly see that we have entered the bullmarket now, because the monthly Stoch RSI is now on overbought, and normally remains there 1-2 years.
This is historical behavior, of which I think that BTC will not just...
With all the giant arrows pointing either upwards or downwards, what if BTC surprises us with boringness/sideways action?
Quite similar to 2016 when BTC did these longer plateau phases after every runup.
The daily MA200 is rising, already at 6400, we also have strong volume profile supports at 8.1k and 6.4k.
If BTC doesn't push on soon, then the gold fractal...
Depending on which route BTC will like to take now, we will see different heights of the new All time high.
The resistance is curved as we know, because BTC at some point left the exponential growth channel.
Of course, at some point it could decide to change this longterm behavior, but until now, based on historical data, it is reasonable to assume that this...
A while ago I did a fractal comparison between BTC and gold, because a few people here on TV and me noticed the incredible fractal similarity between the BTC behavior and the gold behavior.
Of course, the timescale for gold is far greater, since gold has a much higher marketcap, thus doing everything much slower.
But in principle, the charts look really...
XRPBTC is falling as I predicted here:
Now, many are waiting for the big ripple breakout.
When will XRP finally start to follow BTC?
Well, if we look at the volume profile and the big falling (bullish) wedge,
we see that there are basically two very...
Recently I published a chart, that was admittedly not drawn too nicely. I didn't have enough coffee, ok?! This time I learned my lesson, and fueled up with a good dosage of
caffeine before starting to draw some lines and curves, hehe :)
Anyways, I would want to talk about the complete Elliott wave picture of BTC since it started trading back in 2010 at...
Not much to say here. BTC seems to be consolidating again, the dump everyone is waiting for probably not materializing, instead BTC just brutally pushing on.
We can however dip lower first, before resuming the uptrend, and forming this nice wedge here.
Watch for a break below support, this would invalidate the trading setup.
If BTC stays within this wedge, I see...
So I was thinking for a long time about this current move of BTC. WTF is BTC doing here, it should still "rest" in 2019 and start the bigger upmoves in early 2020, a few months before the halving.
Instead, we are already now apparently pushing for higher highs, and are not too far away from ATH any more.
And BTC? Still no sign of a larger correction.
So I noticed this similarity, as always fractals can be seen everywhere at any timescale in markets. But here, it was really interesting that the current 1h chart,
looks really similar to the 1d chart of the 2014-15 bearmarket.
Well, if we were to apply this scenario to the current situation, we'd slump slowly down to a low of around 8k, upper 7k, then stabilize...
Contrary to some uber ripple shills, I personally don't really like ripple. It's centralized, and stands for everything which I basically don't like.
However, I can't deny the brutal pumping potential behind this coin. In the past, it always was one of the best performing coins.
However, I am pretty convinved that it will NOT pump in 2019.
2019 is accumulation...
Well with all the bullishness lying in the air, I thought I'd make a more bearish chart.
I mean, not really bearish, only short term bearish. Longer term of course, BTC is uber bullish.
It's really hard to say what BTC will do, but we have very solid support at 6.3K, where the volume profile indicates extremely strong support!
Let's see! Not much more to add...
So the dump did come, the shooting star weekly was indeed a good dump indicator.
However, as always, there are now many emotional charts out there. As long as we climb, everything is super nice, but as soon as it starts dumping, doom and gloom is back, hehe!
Good old hysterical bitcoin land :)
I think we won't go lower than the middle weekly bband, so around the...
Well a beautiful textbook shooting star candle is forming. I know, there is still time until the new weekly candle, and in 6 hours a lot can happen in bitcoin land.
However, if no miracle happens now, and we get a 1000 USD pump, then the weekly close will look strongly like a shooting star.
That is usually a strong reversal candle. In that case, I expect a dump...
Well here it is again, the good old 2012 rally.
So far, it still has some similarities. But unfortunately with fractals we can find similarities everywhere, so it of course will not magically tell us that this is exactly how the rally will look :/
But is still interesting to see. The gold fractal doesn't fit any more, because it would have needed to dump at 13k,...