BTC wants to go to overbought again on weekly timeframe. It would be ultra weird if not.
Weekly stoch RSI has not been on overbought since a very long time, probably the longest time in BTC history.
It needs to be overbought again on weekly, so that it can prepare for the next dump, which hopefully will be the final one.
At least there is a high probability it ...
It is important to understand the following. BTC hates you. Yes, it hates you, every single one of you. And it tries to destroy you, wherever it can. When you're long, it dumps. When you're short, it pumps.
Why does it do this? Because whales play us. They can play this low volume market easily, and play the market contrary to what the mass of people do.
So I've ...
Ahhh LTC, my old friend.
I bought a lot of you back in 2015, and I didn't regret it.
Of course, I was a bit pissed that ripple, ETH, and dash pumped much more, but I don't hold a grudge, because for me,
it all started with LTC.
That is the restart in 2015, because when I started with coins in 2013, I managed to lose all XD
Well, now let's take a look at the ...
Well, this bounce from 3200 is the most pitiful excuse for a bounce I have seen in a long time.
This shows that the support at 3200, which should have lead to a very strong reaction, a rally to upper 5000s, is quite weak.
I think we'll go below the MA200 in the near future. Maybe the structure will be different from the 2011 fractal, in that BTC just doesn't ...
It's time for another view at the longterm picture, and for that, we must zoom out again to the monthly timeframe.
It is apparent that this structure here is a bit different from the last bearmarkets.
The subsequent bullmarket could therefore also be different.
I think that BTC cycles are getting longer.
One must think of BTC as a physical pendulum. The more ...
To see where solid support lies, the monthly MA200 apparently provided solid support in the last two economic bearmarkets.
This time could develop very similarly, dropping a total of 60% down to 2800, lasting until maximum mid 2020, then afterwards we'll see a new bullmarket.
It was clear that it would come to that, but we didn't know when and ...
This could catapult BTC back into the 5000s, for a time at least.
Then we'll see some sideways creeping, and a longer flat, stable period of weeks, until BTC will make the final dump, sometime in March-April,
the low still remains at 2000 plusminus a few hundred imho.
I could of course be wrong, but that is the general feeling I have.
Weekly timeframe also ...
We're almost there in this falling wedge structure.
The final leg will soon materialize imho, the rising longs, and decreasing shorts are signalling that, then also the three drive pattern of a falling wedge, correction C was not here yet.
Then also the 4h stoch RSI on overbought again.
High probability trade, however, there is a chance of 10-20% that BTC will ...
BTC unfortunately is not an exact science. There are multiple supports which all seem valid, depending on whoch starting point you choose back in 2010, and what curvature you take.
The result is quite different, some curves are in line with the previous top area at 1200, others are too high for that.
Therefore I would tend to speak more of a support area which ...
So, it seems I over-estimated BTC.
It doesn't pump as expected, until not yet, we still have half a day until the weekly candle close.
If no miracle happens, and the weekly closes like this, this would be certainly a very bad sign, and we would continue to dump down to the SQRT support, at around 2k.
The question then is, what will happen in 2019.
This is the bounce we needed.
Now it looks as if we'll go to 5.5k.
Then float around the 5k level for a few weeks, until BTC will prepare for the last drop.
But of course only when the sentiment is super bullish again, and everybody including their grandmother goes long, hehe.
Then BTC will drop.
1. Shorts strongly above longs
2. Daily ...
Good news, it seems that BTC shows some signs of life after the last two weeks.
Several things point towards 3450 on bitstamp having been the local low for now.
It surely is a weird price that I didn't see coming, I thought that 4200 would act as strong support, but it went through that historical support line like butter.
That confirms by belief that lines ...
With all that doomsday feeling going around, I thought I'd update my older longterm chart, with updated, more precise price action.
It still seems that the bottom will be in the low 2000s area, sometime in march/april 2019, then a longer flat period, before the next bullrun.
This time, I looked at the ratio of the previous ATHs to each other, the factors are ...
So, as I feared BTC did choose not to respect the 4200 support line, that many hoped would be a magical Gandalf Mana shield barrier or something XD
No, as predicted, trendlines don't count a lot in BTC, since the support is more akin to a squareroot function in the log chart.
Therefore, we can go quite lower, without breaking the longterm bulltrend.
Since we didn't get any bounce since the brutal drop on the 20th, the chances unfortunately are increasing that we'll see a scenario that is quite unpleasant.
The 4300 level is not only the linear support line in the log chart all the way back to 2015, which many noobs think is the ultimate support line, where BTC cannot break through.
It can and it will, but ...
Wow, what a drop that was the last days. INSANE. It took me also by surprise I have to admit, the sheer intensity of it, and that we actually exactly hit the longterm support line.
Yesterday we had no bounce at all, and I was worried that we'll actually go below 4k, directly to 3k, which would have been very bad for BTC, it would have lead to a more intense ...
Ok guys, here is a real shocker for most people that really loooooove those lines. I mean, I get it. Lines are nice. They give you some sense of
security, some sense of predictability.
They also look nice, and as if that wasn't enough, they are also super easy to draw XD
Unfortunately, they don't mean a lot for BTC.
And all the people saying 4k will be the ...
Well everyone who is going long now, needs to learn how a bottom and reversal looks.
A drop like this, without ANY kind of bounce, is indeed very very weak.
What is more, the longs are still much higher than the short, meaning that too many people think this is the bottom, they want to long prematurely,
and BTC wants to naturally destroy as many people as it can ...