Fomenka

Fomenka Updated 

We stick to our base case, which we've been tracking since January, the market may experience a significant retracement before resuming its upward trend. As previously stated, the market appears to have formed a double top with negative divergence against the RSI indicator, and after a modest bounce on Monday, it could fall to everyone's surprise.

Fomenka

I'm leaning towards an expanding diagonal in WTI to finish wave (x). Reasons are 1) sharp sell-off on Monday, which appears to be a wxy double zigzag rather than a five-wave impulse 2) the subsequent bounce appears difficult enough for another double zigzag. Of course, I could be wrong about the bearish case, but I'm sticking to it so far, despite the fact that...

Fomenka

This past week, the price gave us a hard time determining the peak of wave [ B]. Nonetheless, when compared to last week's update below, the outlook remains on track. I suppose we've just finished the predicted ABC zigzag in wave (Y), with wave A being an imperfectly shaped leading contracting diagonal and wave C being a nicely shaped ending expanding...

Fomenka

The diagonal we identified last week has been confirmed. However, its fifth wave taken out the prior low, making some aspects of the previous scenario irrelevant. In the overall scheme of things, this doesn't change anything other than adding assurance to the scenario with a larger falling diagonal, which we began considering a few weeks ago.

Fomenka

I started to assemble own ibrary of ElliottWave patterns and rules. Here simple zigzags occured in: wave W and wave Y of WXY double zigzag Zigzag 1 - wave W Wave A - leading diagonal Wave B - double zigzag Wave C - ending expanding diagonal ending at the top line of the parrallel channel Zigzag 2 - wave Y Wave A - impulse Wave B - double zigzag Wave C -...

Fomenka

#WTI is now in sync with NatGas. Unintentionally, we arrived at a similar expected trajectory for both commodities. Mind the oversold RSI, the price being above moving averages and the lack of finishing pattern. That gives us some comfort that the trend is ongoing.

Fomenka

#Natgas The triangle we had projected as an option in the weekend update did not materialise. The price breached the guidelines. Reassembling alternative scenarios leads me to the concept of a diagonal. I showed the contracting diagonal, which is the most common, but an expanding one is also possible.

Fomenka

Compared to the forecast we published two weeks ago, the natural gas prediction turned out to be 100% accurate. A comparison of the 1 hour charts is shown below. Though I was able to accurately predict the exact shape of the recovery from the recent low, I was uneasy about the longer-term outlook. On daily chart I repeatedly expressed my discomfort with the lack...

Fomenka

The bigger picture remains ambiguous about what will happen when the price rises to around $83-85. The blue and black scenarios are concrete; wave should contain either a diagonal or an impulse. The green scenario is the least certain because wave b could be anything. However, given the time it took to get to where we are now and the growing disproportions,...

Fomenka

Last week, the price performed exceptionally well against the outlook. The price formed (W)(X)(Y) with a distinct triangle in wave (Y) and rallied strongly. This occurred when the majority of other analysts, both technical and fundamental, became bearish, casting doubt on us as well. However, our Elliottwave technique proved to be superior at that point. We...

Fomenka

#WTI seems like have finished the correction wxy. This analysis now is contrarian to most of other views

Fomenka

It appears that the WXY wave has come to an end. I changed Y from ABC flat to ABCDE triangle, the most common pattern in wave Y of of the WXY combo. Invalidation is moved to the triangle's nearest low point. #WTI

Fomenka

#Natgas returns to the previous scenario, in which wave (ii) is complete. Expect a rapid increase from these levels.

Fomenka

#Natgas looks solid. Although wave (ii) required relabeling and repositioning, the combination of the leading diagonal in presumed wave (i), moving averages support, and oversold RSI seemed encouraging.

Fomenka

#Natgas looks to be favouring the blue scenario posted previously. The price now needs to pullback to form wave (ii) before next rally.

Fomenka

#WTI developed more pronounced (C) of Y of (X), but the count remains unchanged. It also appears that waves 1 and 2 of A have formed, and the price is poised to rally.

Fomenka Updated 

#WTI Long story, short. The way the market is trading today may have eliminated a lot of triangle-based scenarios. I anticipate that the rise will continue to be erratic, but as before, those variations may occur faster or slower than shown. News regarding US oil and distillate inventories will be released tomorrow, and the US and EU are going to announce...

Fomenka

NatGas has finally reached what appears to be a local bottom. As shown on the chart, single abc zigzags can form a triangle, but abc can also start an abc flat. Considering the depth of the retracement, this unlikely to mark the end of the correction. We'll be monitoring for more cues. If the price rises shaping abc zigzag, the triangle will become more likely....