Fomenka

Fomenka

I had to slightly rework the NatGas chart. The price appears to have formed and confirmed the Order Block, and is now retesting it to allow smart money to pull out of shorts that were previously opened to trigger the sell-off and collect stop orders underneath.

Fomenka

#Natgas seems to have completed the wave down and is ready to explode. I can label the last wave as a diagonal and it seems that we have small 1-2-3-4 sequence completed. So I flipped my stance from bearish to bullish.

Fomenka

I've noticed that Friday and Monday rarely bring a change in gas prices (unlike Bitcoin). Usually, the price follows the previous week's trend, which is currently downward. It's possible that wave (5) of should be extended because waves and appear to be the same length. The chart shows weekly cycles that last one week, from Friday to Friday.

Fomenka

Oil has been a tough one. No clear patterns makes me keep the idea that we are in wxy double zigzag formation. I think we need to retest this huge Order Block area indicated in green box. A possible way to label it is to expect that (x) will be an expanded ABC flat with A being a combination. Not my ideal choice but do not have a better count now. The red...

Fomenka

That's how I see it. It has been difficult in the past month to count BTC waves and no wonder, considering the complex wxy waves. However, it is getting a bit more clearer now. Wave of y might have just finished, but the base case is going lower very soon. A complete wxy might also mean the end of the correction and the road to ATH.

Fomenka

Determining trend for intra week trading. I use 1h timeframe and 300/400/500 moving averages (grey). If they are stacked and do not entangle too much the trend is defined and trading on 1h and lower timeframes should be done in the direction of the trend. Otherwise it is better to stay away.

Fomenka

I suspect we are already on an upward trend. The diagonal we just finished can be referred to as wave A. Sadly, this means that we missed it and even stayed short for a significant portion of it. The new low is still possible, as indicated in black, but I am increasingly leaning toward the red scenario. Wave b could be almost any shape, making trading...

Fomenka

Bitcoin remains firmly in a downtrend, and I believe we have only completed waves 1 and 2 of a five-wave sequence. The projection on the chart is for illustration only and should not be used as targets. Wave was a diagonal (not sure if it was expanding or contracting), so I expect wave to manifest as an impulse.

Fomenka Updated 

A few possibilities to complement the previous update. Wave B can take many shapes and forms and an expanded flat (black) is relatively frequent but bot the only one. A triangle (green) is not less probable and WXY combination is also possible.

Fomenka

Seems like ICT Smart Money Concept confirms Elliott Wave Analysis calling for abrupt rally over the weekend to retest open Order Blocks before turning down

Fomenka

Some very interesting developments are brewing up in BTC. My followers know that I have been bearish on BTC despite its recent flare-ups. The count is slowly revealing itself. Now I have two scenarios, the red one advocating a strong selll-off very soon. The red has two variations: i) almost immediate sell-off after completing a narrow diagonal, and ii) the...

Fomenka

Last attempt to short BTC failed. Here I incorporate smart money approach in attempt to validate Elliott Wave count.

Fomenka Updated 

Wow.. that was quite something trying to puzzle out the minute timeframe. THe count of last resort - expanding diagonal in wave c of abc flat before a meltdown.

Fomenka

Seems like the market will shape an ending diagonal. It started with a small diagonal which triggered me into expecting an impulse - went all in (very small deposit) and it kept swinging until formed a nearly complete triangle.

Fomenka

A leading diagonal has absorbed all the previous attempts to spot downward impulse waves on minute timeframes. Most likely we are in for a small bounce or sideways action before the plunge. Since I am expecting an expanding diagonal, I label subwaves as nested abc zigzag within wxy double zigzag. I have a rule that expanding diagonals can be made of double...

Fomenka Updated 

The resolution is a bit small. We might be on the verge of 3rd of 3rd wave in Bitcoin. The wave count up to this point seems to be robust and also moving averages (included below) indicate a resistance zone at current levels.

Fomenka

I've stopped my martingale bot and am thinking of going full blown short from around 63000. So far, the price has followed the outlook perfectly.

Fomenka

Remember the chart? Seems like it is going in the right direction. Crypto is definitely different from energy commodities. Bigger waves are more densely packed with subwaves resulting in higher proportion of abc/wxy to impulse waves IMHO.