Fomenka

Fomenka

Seems like we may see a triangle formation because the price keeps subdividing in zigzags.

Fomenka

The black alternative has a lower probability given it is a double flat combination. Still, it can happen. The rest of the chart is pretty similar to the gold analysis posted previously, which can also accomodate a double flat, by the way.

Fomenka

It has been a very difficult week. After being stopped out of the gold shorts, I took some time to understand what had happened. I got so fixated on the bearish case that I ignored flashing signals of divergence in RSI. Despite the abrupt sell-off, I am still not prepared to get back in. The structure, in my opinion, is becoming more intricate and will take...

Fomenka

This is a higher timeframe view for the previous post -https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NATGASUSD/gwgRrXus-NatGas-Update/

Fomenka

I reckon we might be witnessing a rise in wave (v) of [i ]. The price is likely to gravitate towards 200 MA which is trending down on Daily timeframe.

Fomenka

WTI is rallying hard with no divergence on RSI, which probably means the trend will carry on for some time. I plotted a couple of possibilities for how to interpret the count. To me, both of them are equal in terms of probability.

Fomenka

I'm updating the count after a significant blow to the previously defined scenario. In my weekly email, I will also consider the prospect of a developing upward trend.

Fomenka

No strong opinion here. As per previously outlined scenario we might be at a local top.

Fomenka

Similar to Silver (),The search for precious metals shorts is ongoing. I was unable to characterize the drop before the irritating bounce as anything other than a prolonged wave (1) in the shape of a diagonal.

Fomenka

Despite the setback with my previous outlook I remain bearish in the big picture. The rise from the bottom does not look like an impulse wave therefore I suspect a diagonal in the making.

Fomenka

This is what came to mind in the first 10 mins I have looked at the chart. I will proceed with my weekly highlights write-up, which will include Gasoil and Natgas. It might trigger other ideas.

Fomenka

Although the price largerly followed previously posted scenario the retracement is too deep to ignore. I am inlclined to think that we might be through waves (1) and (2) at this point and is about to start an abrupt ascend in wave (3)

Fomenka

Upon closer examination of the near-term wave subdivisions, I call back the statement that initial wave (a) of the remaining 2023 uptrend might be complete and replace it with a diagonal. Again, I have to cautiously mention that such projections are very speculative at this stage. I shall be ready to alter my view at any point if I receive new information.

Fomenka

The count is revealing itself and by the look of the decline is not over yet. My analysis tells that we are about to experience another wave of selling. This is somewhat confirmed by what I see in precious metals and US stock market.

Fomenka

Although the count may look complete, the scenario allows that there can be one more wave down before resuming the uptrend.

Fomenka

I believe we are in wave (3) of of c. It has been difficult to define what was going on at the lowest levels of time. In doing so, I tagged the result of 1-2 waves, anticipating a decrease in wave 3 of 3 of (3) anytime soon. However, the big plunge may never occur because the price continues to roll gradually down through levels.

Fomenka

The price consolidated on the solid level of support. Within the outlined scenario, I consider it to be wave (iv) before the terminal (v) in of W. In the chart below, I indicated that wave ideally would need to reach 100% of in length. It will be sufficient, although Silver tends to go wild in terminal moves and overshoot such targets.

Fomenka

I have shortened and streamlined the count, making it more closely correlated to what I see in metals and US stocks.