Fomenka

Fomenka

After numerous iterations a refined count for UDSJPY to satisfy all possible rules and norms.

Fomenka

Strictly following rules to interpret the recent bounce confirmed that we might be in wave b of abc flat that should post new low this week. I think wave c will not exceed the recent high considering the pressure from moving averages on higher timeframes. Here I run against the crowd and some other Elliott wave practitioners expecting further advance as part of...

Fomenka

I do not normally track DXY but decided that I have to in order to validate some of my gold and silver counts. DXY is at the very strong level. The index has been bouncing around it the whole 2022 year. I illustrated potential developments with WXY one being a triangle in the shadow of W and another one - abc flat. A completely separate scenario is the one in...

Fomenka

The price has finally left the triangle and I expect swift decline, however nothing major to write home about. I reckon we are still in a bigger triangle and after swift portion of decline we might get entangled in see saw movements.

Fomenka Updated 

Somewhat similar situation in XAUUSD as compared to XAGUSD . I am short therefore all of it can be just a wishfull thinking. My rationale is that wave a (red) can not be interpreted as an impulse wave up, therefore we should be in the final stages of the correction.

Fomenka

This chart exists to support my analysis of Gold - and Silver - I use USDJPY as a proxy for DXY and because it is usually strongly correlated with Gold. The decline from recent highs is taking the shape of double...

Fomenka Updated 

I am reconsidering my Silver, Gold charts and looking at USDJPY for cues. See the updates of all of them now. Below I will post links to bigger timeframes and correlated tickers. Silver is strong, however, I still think we are in final stages of completing the move up. It can still inflict quite some damage on shorts. See the next post for a lower timeframe.

Fomenka

I would expect XAGUSD to do some really nasty things before completing the trend up.

Fomenka Updated 

Similar to gold but look at this beautiful triangle in wave B where E is also a triangle.

Fomenka

And slighlty bigger picture to provide a framework for the previous update -

Fomenka

I am short and in a loss therefore biased. Please treat this with caution. I do expect gold to go sharply down together with stocks.

Fomenka

Holding short through this bounce. The price left wave w territory and the triangle scenario in y is invalidated. The only possible option is abc flat. Let's see how it plays out.

Fomenka

Going back to my previous count with expanded flat as an assumption for what has happened yesterday.

Fomenka Updated 

Here's the simplest explanation of what has just happened.

Fomenka Updated 

Recent developments in Gold and Russian stock market make me reconsider SP500 chart. I think we are in the immediate bearish scenario with correction in wave B taking the shape of regular flat abc.

Fomenka Updated 

I think I spotted a double zigzag which can be a part of triangle on the way up. I am revising the outlook for this wave (b) and think that the local low is in place.

Fomenka

Flipping sides as suddenly I see indications for USDRUB to go up and for XAUUSD and XAGUSD to start sinking. Bulling case looks increasingly stretched.

Fomenka

I suspect that waves (i) and (ii) might be over and we will have a thrust upwards despite expectations for a longer and more organically looking diagonal.