Fomenka

Fomenka

#Natgas returns to the previous scenario, in which wave (ii) is complete. Expect a rapid increase from these levels.

Fomenka

#Natgas looks solid. Although wave (ii) required relabeling and repositioning, the combination of the leading diagonal in presumed wave (i), moving averages support, and oversold RSI seemed encouraging.

Fomenka

#Natgas looks to be favouring the blue scenario posted previously. The price now needs to pullback to form wave (ii) before next rally.

Fomenka

#WTI developed more pronounced (C) of Y of (X), but the count remains unchanged. It also appears that waves 1 and 2 of A have formed, and the price is poised to rally.

Fomenka Updated 

#WTI Long story, short. The way the market is trading today may have eliminated a lot of triangle-based scenarios. I anticipate that the rise will continue to be erratic, but as before, those variations may occur faster or slower than shown. News regarding US oil and distillate inventories will be released tomorrow, and the US and EU are going to announce...

Fomenka

NatGas has finally reached what appears to be a local bottom. As shown on the chart, single abc zigzags can form a triangle, but abc can also start an abc flat. Considering the depth of the retracement, this unlikely to mark the end of the correction. We'll be monitoring for more cues. If the price rises shaping abc zigzag, the triangle will become more likely....

Fomenka

The chart's key message is that we are likely to be in a large block of corrective waves until about April. It is possible that this will be wave (B) or even (2), followed by sharp impulse wave (C) or (3). However, it is equally feasible that we will continue to see-saw movements, forming a contracting diagonal (C) in the black scenario. An alternative bearish...

Fomenka

Last week's decline removed several alternatives, including the possibility that the correction was nearly complete, which is ironic. There are no more confusing options with triangles. However, the fact that the price penetrated the red dashed trendline indicates that wave b is most likely not over. Also, because of the steepness and depth of the decline, I am...

Fomenka

Looks like we have just comleted wave [3 ] of the ending diagonal. This also largely corresponds to my expectations in BTC.

Fomenka Updated 

#USOIL before we celebrate the end of correction let me cast some options of what wave b can look like.

Fomenka

COVID marked the supercycle's low in oil. Since then, the price has rallied to form a double zigzag consisting of (A)(B)(C). Since February 2022, the price has been falling in a very choppy manner. Recent developments suggest that the price is forming an expanding diagonal. When completed, I believe the price will drop to $60/bbl in 2025. The alternative is...

Fomenka

The larger picture supports the blue case, in which wave (w) may have already been completed and we are approaching a period of rapid growth to $100 per barrel area. Such a scenario would appear more organic in the sense that wave C of (X) must hurry up; otherwise, it becomes too disproportionate to A and thus less likely. As of now I cannot see any immediate...

Fomenka

Today a friend of mine attempted to talk me into crypto. I dusted off my BTC chart and voila!.. I saw only bears... I might be wrong, though. I don't usually follow BTC, but this count came without any effort. I'm not saying I'm 100% right, but be careful, guys.

Fomenka

Oil has broken through extremely strong resistance. However, the area is contaminated with strong resistance levels every $2-3 USD per bbl, making the levels technique less effective. In my charts I chose to delete the levels. Three options are on the table. 1. Bold scenario assuming a shallow retracement in wave B (zigzag, double zigzag, flat, triangle, or...

Fomenka

In addition to the previously posted scenario, I'm preparing for a situation in which the expanding diagonal is nearly complete and we're in wave [ 5]. The previous subwaves are sufficiently complex to contain whatever you are looking for. The structure appears to be sufficiently developed, and the more compact scenario may hold true, with the price unlikely to...

Fomenka Updated 

Answering requests and attempting to make the analysis more useful, I begin providing boxes instead of specific structures where there is no certainty about the shape of the incoming wave (on top of the uncertainty that I am incorrect about the course of action). I'm doing this to create a product that will meet your needs, and to avoid giving a false confidence...

Fomenka

I wonder it the Texas border dispute can put Natgas on fire.

Fomenka

I continue to elaborate on a possible expanding diagonal triggered by how the price subdivided in wave [ 1]. Very speculative of course.