Fomenka

Fomenka

In oil, I anticipate a complex expanding diagonal. Normally, I'd look for simpler alternatives. Now, however, I am basing my scenario on wave , which is subdivided into (w)(x)(y), which I cannot ignore.

Fomenka

Natural gas. I'm just counting waves, trying not to pay attention to reports of a warm winter and general pessimism. I correctly predicted the recent top, but I did not expect the price to fall so low. In retrospect, it appears to be fine from a technical standpoint, despite some disproportions on minute timescales, but hey... it's gas. It is frequently...

Fomenka

Oil looks like in a runaway scenario. This is the lower timeframe of my scenario with expanding diagonal going above 100. If the market gaps at the open there is a possibility of forming an ending diagonal and reversing the trend after that.

Fomenka

An extremely busy chart with a simple notion that wave 1] is likely to be done and we are going through a correction that might prove to be flat considering the wave structure so far.

Fomenka

Silver is likely to trend lower, swinging up an down as it goes through a sequence of zigzagz and possibly nested abc flats and triangles. The chart is indicative.

Fomenka

Sorry, a more nuanced and enhanced picture on the lower timeframes. I am getting more convinced that the diagonal will expand. The grey case is a probability, although I cannot count a clear wxy in wave [1 ].

Fomenka

Though my base case scenario is a contracting diagonal, I am also considering more extreme options to stay open-minded. Technically it would be the same.

Fomenka

The oil is less clear in the short term than it is in the long term. I believe a diagonal is forming, but it could be expanding or contracting. Better tactics is perhaps to stay long until it is clear which one it is. Not advice, of course.

Fomenka

After months of tracking Oil's decline, I was finally able to put the puzzle together. I rearranged the count so that it now makes much more sense. It does not alter the overall analysis, but rather strengthens it because the count is more simple and natural. Wave A of (W) absorbed all wxy zigzags into leading diagonal and wave (W) has grown in size. Wave X...

Fomenka

Apparently there is an opportunity to short the market. I suspect this will not be easy as waves b of (ii) tend to be tricky.

Fomenka

Working our way through the leading diagonal formation. If everything goes as planned, this will create a fantastic opportunity in early 2024.

Fomenka

An expanding diagonal is also possible but less likely.

Fomenka

Ok. I am speculating that we are in the upward trend already. But early developments can be fuzzy.

Fomenka

I guess something like this is in the making. Other options are possible, of course. Trying to tell the diagonal in its early stages is not super reliable charting. Considering that I wait oil to rally and stocks to fall something nasty should happen..

Fomenka

I ran out of scenarios. If it is not an epxanding diagonal - I do not know what it is.

Fomenka

Since 1 and 3 are somewhat equal in length wave 5 should extend.

Fomenka

Yay.. Despite the metals blew off the roof today I suspect we are at the turnaround point. Not a high confidence chart, however, this is what I have been contemplating for year or so.

Fomenka Updated 

A reasonable degree of confidence that we might have passed the peak. I think I have spotted a leading diagonal as wave i down and corrective wave ii up.