ForexAnalytix

ForexAnalytix

Breakout point from Dec highs at 1.0740. If you have been long US Dollars since last week, need to be careful now.

ForexAnalytix

Although most of the traders in the Forex Analytix community has turned bearish the AUDUSD over the last week, it's important to talk about "why" that is technically, and show you where we are wrong. First of all, the AUDUSD stalled at the horizontal resistance (highs) from early August, 2022. Also, the long term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the April 2022...

ForexAnalytix

One of the traders in the Forex Analytix community (Grasshopper) pointed out that the 10yr Yields are developing an inverted head and shoulder pattern which may lead (on a breakout) to higher yields near term. Considering a false breakdown happened last week on January 19th below horizontal support, this builds the case that was the head. A break of the neckline...

ForexAnalytix

Now that the market is past the CPI in Australia (strong data overnight) the market can look past that and towards the ECB next week. The ECB has been one of the more hawkish Central Banks recently and we are not expecting that to change next week. Technically, the EURAUD dropped to the "support zone" that we have noted since early 2021. Also, we hit the 38%...

ForexAnalytix

The break higher in gold today suggest that while we trade above the 1700 level the risk if for a move higher towards the 1736 level and possibly the 200dma in the coming weeks ahead. The trend line which was broken today was measured from the highs of March 2022. The break back above the 1700 level suggests that last month’s breakdown may be false. RSI is...

ForexAnalytix

The EURUSD was launched January of 1999. After the launch the EURUSD came under pressure until June 2002, the EURUSD broke out in an amazing fashion to eventually trade to 1.6000 the next 6 years. Speaking of fashion, just shortly after Supermodel Gisele Bundshen announced she would only be paid in Euros, the EURUSD peaked (and double topped) and has dropped ever...

ForexAnalytix

Following the FOMC decision, despite the rally in the US Dollar as the FOMC raised rates 75bps, gold and silver ironically went higher too. Silver could be on the cusp of a relief rally near term, especially if today's highs at 19.90 and broken and we get a daily close ABOVE 20.00. A descending trend line from early May is capping the rally. Also, the precious...

ForexAnalytix

Gold is trading below the key support that has held since March of 2021. The issue here is that gold has not gone higher, despite the market being very bullish gold (and calling for higher prices) for a very long time. While we trade below the 1700 level, the risk is for a move to the 1647 level, then the 161% extension of the last major move higher this summer at 1604.

ForexAnalytix

Following the much stronger CPI data today, you can easily see that the market was positioned for a weak data point, thinking that inflation may have peaked in July. The August data showed that was not the case, and could argue that the Fed will continue to stay hawkish and push rates possibly above 4%. The market was wrongfooted, and the reversal from the 2022...

ForexAnalytix

The GBPJPY (A.K.A. the "guppy") is breaking some horizontal resistance at the 166.42 level however should find some key resistance at the 127% extension of the July 27th high to August 2nd lows. This is at 168.34. Above that is the very long term 61.8% retracement at 168.71 level which is also near the highs from the 20th of April and the 9th of June. Considering...

ForexAnalytix

Some will tell you than all the news is "baked into the price" of an asset. Stocks, crypto and even currencies. And for the Pound Sterling, there has been an overabundance of "bad news" from high inflation, a power emergency this winter, to Brexit to a rotating Prime Minister (and I am sure I am forgetting a few things). However, the Cable has finally reached some...

ForexAnalytix

The Russell 2000 has been prone to false breakouts since last fall as the index rallied to all time highs then failed at the end of 2021. The move from Monday/Tuesday of this week could set up the same fate for the index especially if the highly anticipated #CPI data comes in hotter than expected. You can also see that the November 2021, March 2022 and highs this...

ForexAnalytix

The #Silver market has rallied sharply off the key support at the 18.34 level. If you did not know why this was a huge support level a few weeks ago, it is the post COVID lockdown move's 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The silver market has been developing a bull flag pattern and is trying to break higher today after a week of "flag consolidation." We are also...

ForexAnalytix Updated 

#Bitcoin has been in a bearish consolidation since mid June below the spike low in mid May (25,400). Bitcoin bulls should take note since we have been in a minor ascending wedge since June 18th. The problem bulls may have since then is that risk appetite (SPX, stocks, etc.) has rallied substantially since mid July (see orange overlay line chart). Unfortunately for...

ForexAnalytix

Over the last few months the 10yr bond market has been developing a long term inverted head and shoulder pattern. This was suggesting a test of the 200dma may be coming up soon and yields would continue to come down. However, today we saw a massive bearish engulfing and a move that almost wiped out last week’s entire move higher. This aggressive move lower in the...

ForexAnalytix

The US Dollar index is at channel support, and it is at the 50% retracement of the May 30th low to the July 14th high. The RSI is still pointing lower which highlights the risk of the DXY to the downside, however the index is back to mid range as well. This is a pivotal level for the index at the 105.25 level. Also should be noted that the May 13th high was at the...

ForexAnalytix

The EURUSD survived the "End of Month/Quarter/H1" flows today as the market was widely expecting strong US Dollar buying into today. The EURUSD reversed course from the 1.0400 probe below and by the end session ended near the highs of the session. The EURUSD continues to compress in a wedge as the descending trend line is at 1.0570 and remains key resistance for...

ForexAnalytix

US 10Y yields are pulling back after testing twice the 3.5% area but the move to the D/S is unfolding in a corrective manner for now (descending channel). 3% is the closest support area (also a psychological level) but a move towards 2.8% before resuming the upside is likely. We know it seems far but 4% is a level we expect the market to eventually hit while...