ForexVox

ForexVox Updated 

The US CPI figures and Retail data points should give the USD a boost if they come out as expected. The last FOMC meeting also comes with economic projections for 2020 and this is where the USDJPY could find the momentum to rise. If the UK elections go as currently forecasted with a Conservative majority, the Japanese yen should not be the go-to safe haven,...

ForexVox Updated 

Cable longer term chart: One last Sterling hurrah before weakness or a sustained push back towards 1.40? Cable has weakened in the majority of the previous elections. But don’t let this fool you. The last comparative election result (a Tory majority) was back in 2015 and Sterling strengthened.

ForexVox Updated 

The average range for GU in an election week is 2.41% (roughly - records from the 70's are less reliable). A short would need to aim at the 1.3 area as maximum first T1 - that consolidation pattern has made some strong resistance to get through. In the expected weekly range, we are currently in no man's land, so nothing but a quick scalp would be worthwhile in...

ForexVox Updated 

Looking at the recent changes in Brazil the technicals and fundamentals are lining up for a stronger BRL. BRL may open stronger Thursday, as the central bank delivered an expected 50bp rate cut, but notably removed the following sentences from the statement. “In the Copom evaluation, the evolution of the basic scenario and the balance of risks prescribes an...

ForexVox Updated 

Another leg lower in GBP/USD overnight means we can move our stop down again. The trade has banked 245 pips so far but there still seems more potential downside. 1.3150 should cap moves higher for now as we target a move towards 1.2830.

ForexVox

The USD is the worst performing G10 currency as we come to the final days of December and the end of the decade. DXY broke below the 96.750 level (US dollar index) which is its lowest in 6 months. The catalyst of the weaker dollar has likely been risk appetite holding up since both the US and China said that they were ready to sign a Phase 1 deal; as well as...

ForexVox Updated 

To offset the additional tariffs the CNY would have to depreciate - although the Chinese authorities have said that they won't pursue quantitative easing. If there is a formal announcement to suspend or delay the tariffs, the market would expect a more positive risk reaction and that is currently being priced in. WIth the USDCNY trading around the 6.90 and below...

ForexVox Updated 

USDSEK has been showing some nice support at some key zones. Though I'm in for a long at the monthly S1, if the trade works out I'm probably early so there should be another chance to enter - if you think USD has some overall strength still to show. Reason for the expectation that there will be another entry - their CB will be on deck next week. They have widely...

ForexVox Updated 

Just outlining a possible set of zones for the S&P500 to pull back towards (Marked in Green) FOMC UK General Election + Brexit December 15th China/US trade Tariffs ECB - Christine Lagarde's 1st proper meeting There are a few key risk events this week, so a pullback is more likely than not. Overall - the US fiscal flows are positive and larger each...

ForexVox Updated 

Inflation expectation is creeping higher in Australia. Currently, Core CPI is at 1.60, CPI Housing Utilities is increasing, the inflation rate is currently 1.7 and up 0.1 from September. With the US CPI coming out today better than expected but less than the previous reading traders have sold the US dollar. The likelihood is that the Fed keeps interest rates as...

ForexVox Updated 

UK elections on Thursday GBP has had a run-up on the back of polling data which shows that there is a consensus for a Tory majority government. As the election day gets close - it should be expected that the GBP falls into a trading range while we wait for the outcome. The weekly pivot would be the most obvious place for the GBPJPY to find a level to jump off...

ForexVox Updated 

Germany's trade surplus widened to EUR 21.5 billion in October 2019 from EUR 18.7 billion in the same month of the previous year. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany jumped 20.7 points from a month earlier to -2.1 in November 2019, the highest since May and easily beating market expectations of -13. Euro is currently enjoying the rise in...