A great indicator to determine the confidence (ie. risk appetite) of investors/speculators is the XLY/XLP ratio. XLY is the ETF for consumer discretionary stocks whereas XLP is the ETF for constumer staples stocks. In times of confidence, XLY should perform better than XLP because there is belief that the economy is doing well and that people will spend cash on...
So here we are, S&P 500 at 2,000, bears have good arguments and bulls have good arguments as well. As of right now, I have no idea where equities are going, I'll let the market tell me.
But here is a quick trade idea I got today. By the way, please correct me if there is something wrong in my analysis as this is my first real market-neutral trade that does not...
Ratio chart between the S&P 500 and US Treasury Bonds. The ratio is right now at the same height as before the crash in 2008 and it could eventually reach the levels of the pre-2000 crash if it continues.
The only times the monthly RSI(14) of this chart went over 70, a crash eventually followed. However notice the period from 1994 to 2000 where RSI hovered around...
This is not a trade idea, just an interesting observation. This spread chart is essentially the difference between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 (SPY-IWM). The last time it was at this level, it was before the crash in 08 (additionally, it was very high before the dot-com crash). Not saying this is the market's destiny, but it might confirm the thesis of a...
CAD/JPY represents a great long opportunity if you are willing to hold the position for a few weeks.
With a potential of 565 pips compared to a downside risk of 196 pips, the R-R-R is of nearly 3 (2.88).
Price action has been forming a very nice double bottom during the last two months. We should see pattern completion at around 93.67.
Stochastics (14,3,3) do...
Cypher pattern formation finally completed (dating from October 2013). This trade provides a great RRR (3) and the 1330 level is likely to hold, as it has been tested both as support and as resistance in the past.
Other fundamental factors accentuate the idea behind this position, but the technicals alone show that goal is very likely to see a reversal.
Here's why
1) 38.2 Fib retracement (starting on the December 27th leg)
2) Major structure level
3) Oversold Stochastics (5,3,3)
4) Previous candle went through Bollinger Bands (20,2)
5) MAJOR MAJOR MAJOR level 0.9000
You could take this as a swing trade or intraday trade if you're like me, happy trading!
1) Close to hitting resistance of downwards movement
2) Divergence in stochastics (5,3,3) from previous high
3) Oversold stochastics
4) Top of BB (20,2) and we even came out
*Put your stop a little bit over downwards trendline
- Lukas
1) Hit diagonal resistance (based on trend channel)
2) Out of (20,2) Bollinger Bands and coming back in
3) Oversold on (5,3,3) stochastics
4) Small but good divergence on stoch.
5) Not perfect but still good looking Cypher Pattern
6) No major NZD or USD events coming in the next hours
(You might want to wait for a crossover on stoch. before going in)
I'm looking at a possible bullish reversal towards the 1.3578 area. It will pull back on 38.2 fib and it has been a major level (support and resistance). The level could be broken if there is enough pressure, but chances are that it will bounce. We'll see!
