Fractal777

Fractal777 Updated 

The Dow meandered slightly higher in a holiday week which is usually positive. Our thinking has not changed, markets are very overbought and displaying narrower breadth as the rally is about to terminate. Bear markets seek to shake out everyone, this rally is no different in weeding out the weak shorts. Surprises seem to occur when least expected, a decaying...

Fractal777 Updated 

A week which initially saw the Dow dump on Thursday and reverse and rise on Friday with lighter volume. No conviction either way...there cannot be any further rally with rates rising and tightening money supply, no matter what bogus media spin is leaked. The collapse of FTX reeks of a collaborated and designed spook out of Crypto's. They are now high risk assets...

Fractal777 Updated 

A bad week for the bears as the inflation number has receded so much, the bulls anticipate a Fed pivot. We know that it will take a lot more than this paltry number for the Fed to change direction. A real spanner was thrown admittedly, our down trend line was breached for the first time in this bear market, such a powerful rally was not expected...a mix of buying...

Fractal777 Updated 

Another Fed meeting that failed the bulls, some believe that too many bears equates to a mega rally. The bear wants everyone to lose, just as they believe the worst has past, the market turns on a dime and whipsaws again. Our maximum corrective rally was spot on at 33089, just 14 points off. Our down trend line has held for many months and this weeks rally was...

Fractal777

In only 11 trading days the Dow has catapulted over 4000 points, driven by a handful of stocks over performing and the Fed "chatter" of concern that the economy is getting in trouble, this coupled with shorts covering has lit a fuse in the bears den. Our midweek idea was sure that the Dow would stop rising around the 61.8% retrace, another 3% added on Friday is...

Fractal777 Updated 

Our thoughts last week for either lower lows or at best, consolidation, were obliterated on Friday. The Wall St Journal "reported" that some Fed members were concerned at the condition of the economy regards tightening rates...this was the catalyst to spook the bears and cover. Yes we acknowledge that markets were oversold, but it is often at this condition that...

Fractal777 Updated 

What a week, gyrating prices to fool the most...that is the bear. Our midweek idea called for whipsawing action after the CPI number...a classic dump on the news was bid up by the plunge team and shorts stampeded to the exits. When this market should have cratered, it reversed up 3%. Then on Friday, almost all the gains were wiped out...a fake out move as we...

Fractal777

A quick idea today before the CPI data spills onto our screens. The past few days price action has been pretty bearish as each attempted rally is sold off. Long wicks on the 4hr candles as sellers take control of this market. Any rise in inflation above August's number will be too much...the last straw! A squeeze pennant like pattern has developed, the downtrend...

Fractal777

A classic week in a bull trap example that served to shake out weak shorts and temp weak bulls to bid up what they believed was a decline finished. The UK governments panic measure to prop up the pensions system after UK bonds collapsed was seen as a catalyst for the Fed's emergency meeting to intervene in US markets. We can clearly see the vulnerability of major...

Fractal777 Updated 

Our thoughts last week were for a serious plunge, the Dow ended very weak but the decline remains orderly. Almost 22% down, this bear market is getting legs now...just waiting for that capitulation event. It's baked in the cake that this week will see the towels being thrown, possible 3000 point drop. October is the favourite month to crash markets, once the Fed...

Fractal777 Updated 

Last week, the Dow popped early as indicated and sold of heavily into Friday. Clear as a bell wave threes down are unfolding. 29600 was our first target...easily hit, now our sights are on 24,000 and possibly 23,000. The next 7-10 days are going to be extraordinary, the severity will be evident this week...the catalyst to cause capitulation could be from Europe,...

Fractal777

Last week we called for the Dow to rally towards 32600ish for a wave two rally to complete. We also did mention that the bounce would expire itself and what an expiry! The coming week has two options, a slight bounce early on low volume and breath or a vertical plunge by the end of the week. We are in the denial phase still, bulls clinging to hope that the Fed...

Fractal777

Our midweek idea called for a rally off the lows towards 32k, three days of average volume buying has taken the Dow up 1000 points and possibly towards either 32,600 or 33,000...it may truncate below these levels, it's not necessary to reach them. We remain short in very high confidence that this bounce will expire itself this week and resume the bear market...

Fractal777 Updated 

Today's rally with higher volume is the likely beginning of minor wave 2 up in an ABC minor rally. Wave 1 down of 3 looks complete, perhaps a week to complete this rally before the dam bursts. A target of 32,200-32,500 could be reached, not necessary to reach these levels. The clock is fast running down towards that critical point of inflection. This market is on...

Fractal777

Back in 2020 we warned about what was really going on in this controlled world and what was coming. Before we get into the depths of this coming wipe out, we look back on the past weeks price action for the Dow and attempt to navigate a likely path for this week. Anything could happen any day right now, the fragility of these markets is an understatement. We are...

Fractal777

Sometimes in technical analysis, it just works perfectly...this week was a classic example in wave pattern completion and confirmation to boot. The Dow finished the day on it's low after a savage mauling ignited by investors being spooked by the Fed's refusal to pivot on rates. The same Fed who juiced these markets by pumping trillions of freebies into folks...

Fractal777

Firstly I would like to thank all those people who follow me and like our ideas. In a very challenging market, it's never easy fighting against the tide. The Dow finished Friday with enough downside breath to suggest strongly that this counter rally is over. Our midweek idea called the rally complete and only needed a further strong down day to confirm...Friday...

Fractal777 Updated 

A short update. The Dow has completed a major top early this week as we stated in our weekend idea. From the 4th January to the 17th June's bear market low, the Dow has corrected exactly a Fibonacci sequence of 61.8%...this on top of all the converging data, points to a major top. See the small throwover on Monday's candle and reversal today. Confirmation will...