Fx-AlphaStrats

Fx-AlphaStrats

From the last post, I updated it on 20th may, that it looked like a bear market rally was about to take place, which was a correct call. the target for the bear market rally is set to about 13200 and 13600. This is approximately an increase of 15 pct. and 18 pct. respectively. These levels should spark a euphoric feeling in traders, where everybody starts to...

Fx-AlphaStrats Updated 

Look at the Correlation Matrix heatmap for stock-bond correlation. See you at 10.700 level Short every spike.

Fx-AlphaStrats

The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors: www.nber.org On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance: onlinelibrary.wiley.com Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies: onlinelibrary.wiley.com A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction: deliverypdf.ssrn.com Can Mutual Fund...

Fx-AlphaStrats Updated 

12000 target very close, expecting the level to print today. Whats next? - 11750 level sounds reasonable. why? Everybody thinks the bottom is in, which is a great opportunity for fund managers to offload more assets to retail. plus we still have high inflation, with CPI printing more than expected today. The higher reading on CPI was already indicated yesterday...

Fx-AlphaStrats

Have you ever heard of turnaround Tuesday? Now you have. Turnaround Tuesday is a trading strategy that says that "whenever we get a > -1% drawdown on a Monday, you should buy at the close, and sell the next day at close" This strategy has a success rate of about 60-65% I will not initiate longs, but I just wanted to share that a spike tomorrow should not...

Fx-AlphaStrats

Theory of Rational Bubbles: www.jstor.org Testing for Multiple Bubbles: korora.econ.yale.edu

Fx-AlphaStrats

As previously posted ideas. - Inflation is still high (check) - Rates keep increasing. (check) - bear market rally (check) Keep shorts, reduce leverage, and short every spike. The first target of 12.000 ish is soon to print. Next would be a bear market rally, then we are vomiting again. If you look at what happened at NASDAQ nordic, we got a flash crash because...

Fx-AlphaStrats

It is just a friendly reminder of bear market rallies and how brutal they are. The setup is still as before: Shorting every spike up, and keeping leverage low while taking some profit at the same time.

Fx-AlphaStrats

Nasdaq 100 bounced back from the lows of 12950 and had trouble with staying under the 13000 level. Put call ratio for the market (PCC) have been falling, which indicates more calls are bought than puts. Looking at the past levels of the ratio it seems likely that the ratio is ready for mean reverting at this point. However put/call for equities (PCPS) are high,...

Fx-AlphaStrats Updated 

From previous posts i expected a spike to 14500, 14400 was hit instead before pukking lower. Shorting all spikes have worked great. Still expecting the 12.000 level. I will keep shorting the spikes. Inflation expectation (green line) is exploding and no signs of mean reverting for now. Put/call ratio on the rise which indicates a more bearish sentiment. High gas...

Fx-AlphaStrats

As posten previously, The Long trade did not print to the 14500-15000 level but around 14400. The Long trade for that level was a counter trade for the ongoing Short position. Looking for indication for if the gab closes then adding to the Short position. Put call ratio is increasing and signs of a ban on commodities from russia seems likely. I Will keep adding...

Fx-AlphaStrats

Shorts closed on the basis of a squeeze to the upside. We have fallen almost aaround 20% from ATH, which makes the case for a spike to the upside. The sanctions on russia will and already are giving higher energy prices and likely to stay high for some period. This means households would have less disposable income and therefore lower consumption, which gives...

Fx-AlphaStrats Updated 

Looking at other dates, we see that in 2018, there was an 14% drop at the start, where in the last couple of months in 2018, where a significant larger drop of 24,5% before a reversal up. first couple of months of 2020 gave the famous 30% drop from ATH. From aug to sep, there was a drawdown of 14.5%. The start of 2021 gave an almost 12% fall in prices....

Fx-AlphaStrats

New covid variant (omicron) gave fear to the market the week before as there are a lot of uncertainty about the new strain. Dr. Fauci said friday 10 december that a test conducted of 42 individuals who where affected by the new strain, gave 1 servear hospitaliation, which indicate a percantage rate of 2,38%. with the numbers right now with the current strain of...

Fx-AlphaStrats

Divergence in cash rate policy between US and Norway, creates an opportunity for shorting the pair. US is expected to cut its rate, while slower economic growth is waiting to hit the dollar. Norway's economy is doing great, and therefore they expect to increase the cash rate. also looking at USO vs the pair, as it have been highly diverge against each other....

Fx-AlphaStrats

Aiming to support employment growth and to provide economic support RBA cut its cash rate by 25 bps to a low of 1% at the july meeting. The Australian economy grew below trend at 1.8% this was followed by low consumption and income growth. while increased investments in infrastructure is providing a pick up in activity in the resources sector. a pickup in...

Fx-AlphaStrats

Canadian benchmark rate is at 1,75% and is expected to rise gradually but is dependent on the oil prices, as growing concerns over growing surplus and lower demand. Canada is highly dependent on the U.S. economy where there are expectations on a slowdown to more sustainable pace through 2019. Consumption spending and housing investment is slowly weakening, and...

Fx-AlphaStrats

Gold and oil prices is one of the facts for rising and falling Cad. a small pullback in oil is expected before more upside potential. Risk of higher us oil output =lower prices. slowing global economy=less demand But there are some potential in the EM, Which can increase the demand and push prices a bit higher. OPEC just released its oil market report, where...