GTStockmaster

GTStockmaster 22 views ・

Healthcare is mirroring 2015-2016's triangle breakout pattern here with an obvious move above the trendline. LOTS of people see this, and there are many people viewing this as a repeat of the post 2015 rebound. I'm not totally sold on that scenario however. 2015-2016's healthcare consolidation saw a lot of frauds busted and companies deflated. Currently, we do not...

GTStockmaster 142 views ・

Great setup to go long weed stocks right now. This may seem counterintuitive during what looks to be a coming market selloff and fears over recession, but this is shaping up to look as a great mid-term trade. Some Quick Thoughts... From a chart pattern perspective, this chart is almost a perfect "v" type dip, with accelerating selloffs eventually leading to a...

GTStockmaster 397 views ・

This ratio shows more crowding into mega cap names within the S&P 500

GTStockmaster 53 views ・

Copper is interestingly a great gauge of economic health coming from Asia, and also a relevant view on global growth / inflationary expectations. We've been battling two head and shoulder formations since the GFC. First, the very large commodity bubble formed a big head and shoulders that peaked roughly around 2012, a time where China had maxed out its credit...

GTStockmaster 68 views ・

I've been watching this natural gas producer as it's one of the most productive gas producers with one of the best balance sheets out there in a highly beaten up industry. Their valuation is great despite some challenges in the natural gas industry, and they saw a huge selloff after worsened guidance recently. I'm now buying on this weakness. Here is...

GTStockmaster 31 views ・

Basic chart showing CNY & EM

GTStockmaster 90 views ・

JPYUSD broke out today with a huge 1% move to break out of a 4 year long wedge. This is a bit of a technical move, but it has loads of fundamental implications. Before I go into detail, note that before and during every major market breakdown, JPY spikes, at least in modern times. It has a reputation as a safety currency / safe haven due to this reputation. The...

GTStockmaster 90 views ・

Just looking at two potential necklines. Both probably matter. If you take away the overthrow in 2008, you get a very clean horizontal neckline that just broke, signaling recent acceleration downward in AUD. This is also likely why we were muddling around recently in the current range for such a long time. The other neckline was already broken, but it based on...

GTStockmaster 74 views ・

Not that this is necessarily meaningful, but I find the characteristics of these assets rather strikingly similar. While I certainly would not trade off this alone, it kind of cements my view that Gold is potentially due to for a huge selloff here, which is a very contrarian take in today's market environment. The charts read extremely similarly... peak...

GTStockmaster 1014 views ・

See chart

GTStockmaster 92 views ・

2018 saw a rolling bear market in emerging markets, with a lot of EM currencies getting crushed vs. the dollar. Why has everyone forgotten about this? The issues are systemic, and the buy-down of the USDHKD peg only kept the eurodollar market functioning for long enough to forestall some further pain. Now that the peg has been hit again, we are starting to yet...

GTStockmaster 52 views ・

Unsurprisingly, similar to the currency, the outperformance of the Chinese stock market vs. the S&P 500 falters when the Chinese currency can't be sustained. Not quite as direct of a relationship, but this clearly affects emerging markets, which are highly indebted to the dollar. This is visible if you go back further as well - the broad rolling emerging market...

GTStockmaster 75 views ・

Unsurprisingly, right as the USDHKD Peg hit it's 7.85 limit, China lost its ability to prop up the Yuan, and the Yuan started to fall once again. This is further confirmation that the Yuan is subject to dollar pressure, and Hong Kong is China's "release valve" for dollar funding pressures. When the peg gets hit, the CCP has a difficult time keeping the RMB afloat.

GTStockmaster 150 views ・

Cross = very negative, and typically occurs during a fed rate cutting cycle. These often top-tick markets, and this has been a very reliable indicator across all the bull and bear markets for quite some time. Note - I use ICSA because despite it being noisy, it's actually a cleaner data series when you just smooth it with a moving average (I use EMA). It's not...

GTStockmaster 1684 views ・

Getting close to inversion. If the 10y keeps the breakout momentum up, we will invert soon.

GTStockmaster 61 views ・

Today's read (not accounted for in this chart) is starting to make this a bit worrying. ICSA rising again week over week, threatening to break momentum. ICSA is a noisy indicator, but if you simply add smoothing with a moving average calculation, it becomes a better version of the unemployment rate. I say it's better because it's not subject to data issues such as...

GTStockmaster 105 views ・

USDHKD is a proxy for monetary "stuff" going on in China. China can stimulate when this peg is not being hit as most of their dollar funding seems to be running through Hong Kong. When the peg gets hit however, we see noticeable problems and effects around the world. We are now about to see the peg get re-hit once again, which will likely kick off another wave of...

GTStockmaster 35 views ・

Addendum Chart with more long-term picture + momentum indicators added on.