Generalmonkus

Generalmonkus

50% fib seems to be holding on 4h... for now. Lots of interpretations for on how this could go - price action is confusing but on lower time frames than this, seems to be impulsing up. The longer term charts are clearer to me which is where my analysis is based on... I am most likely incorrect with timing this long as w4s are so soooooooo soooooooooooo tricky, but...

Generalmonkus

Following on from the weekly analysis, you can see my thinking here... my question is will the next move be w5 or will we still be stuck in a w4 of w5 triangle consolidation, ie. we are now in the D wave.

Generalmonkus

I'm not sure what larger degree we are in - some say the rise is over, but I disagree. I still think there is more upside as the larger degree is either still 3 or 5. I'm going on we are in a wave 4 of larger 5 so there is one more up to come. Price action in the orange circle shows what im thinking is a quick abc w2 retracement, so we are now in a larger complex...

Generalmonkus

What happens after the end of the triangle?! DXY should have lower to go and then stage a strong rally to the top triangle resistance line, after which it will fall - but will it continue to fall or bounce back after that...? Food for thought...

Generalmonkus

... carrying on from my last analysis, this EW count puts us currently in W4 of c of C of W4 (refer to monthly chart I published to make sense of this). So I figure a good trade set up confirmed with a few other things would be at the 23 fib (red horizontal line). Failing that, the next fib support comes in at 1.6155 ish. The multi-year support area comes in at...

Generalmonkus

Looks like a classic EW corrective wave. This bull market ain't done yet... just think we have lower to go first.

Generalmonkus

I'm not confident about the shorter term EW count so I'm just waiting for a trade set up to go long. Not sure where this is yet... will be watching closely as I believe that if one can get long, a ride to the 1.74+ area is likely.

Generalmonkus

I think we are in C of W4 and we have a last sharp rally higher to another fib level at which point the last W5 fall will hit GBP hard. However, if you look at the really long term data, after W5 it is possible that GU mounts a huge rally and basically the USD collapses. Where W5 ends... who knows but probably at least the 2008 low. This hypothesis lines up with...

Generalmonkus

i think this is W4 so waiting for a buy at the 23 fib...

Generalmonkus

Last red daily candle looks like a failed probe lower, thus just consolidation probably.

Generalmonkus

We're either completing W2 now or we are still in W1 and maybe w4 within W1. I'm banking on we're in W2 though. Short at 23 fib

Generalmonkus

Short at W4 which should also coincide with the 200 EMA on the 15 min chart... you can look for confluence of other indicators/moving averages etc on higher time frames, but this is my entry if we get there...

Generalmonkus

One can now see how the 'b' wave ended with the FOMC meeting. It's hard to see but I think it's valid. With higher time frames this cannot be seen due to the volatility within the higher time frame candles. Wave 5 of 'c' was a very quick affair from the spike low of wave 4 which was a zigzag flat... so now we can count the down waves of this short. I'm looking to...

Generalmonkus

... zooming in even more - see previous posts. One more to come!

Generalmonkus

... following on from my weekly analysis. Hopefully, again, self-explanatory... note the orange highlighted indicators giving sell signals, neg div on RSI, the lack of bounce at the trendline and looks to be breaking. Also, note the last decline... i suspect this next candle will be a long red one! But that's just an idea. NOTE: C target is only a possibility......

Generalmonkus

Hopefully the chart is self explanatory. My target longer term is about 1.43 - basically the length of the black trendline, so another equal leg up. We've already had an abc (pink highlight) so now this is the 'X' in between, before the next leg up in my opinion. So we need an abc(de) or something for the 'X wave - I believe that we've had 'a' and the fomc...

Generalmonkus

OK so I did a weekly view... some things to notice... From an EW perspective the weekly view is clearer than a daily view... I do think we are now in a W4 correction, with an extended W3 completed at 1.64839. We have broken upwards through the top rail of the large triangle everyone knows about after weekly consolidation beneath it. SO... this top rail should...

Generalmonkus

Maybe we're only in wave 4!?