After some time of hesitation (brutal rejection at the daily 200 Smma in pink, a false breakout), the market produced a false breakout at this extremely important Smma.
Settling above = Bull market, settling below = bear market. Yes i prefer to keep it simple with Bitcoin as an investor.
A golden cross of these 50 and 200 Smma is what i am looking for to be 90%...
Fibo 0.5 resistance,
Daily Smma 200,
Gonna be very tough to break through, but:
Retracement or false breakout?
This is the exact area of the current structure where you absolutely do not want to trade, but want to study the market behaviour.
Weekly Smma 50 is as well here, and a weekly high Rsi is as well...
Judge by yourself;
-A significant drop before the market creates this pattern
-happens some time after a daily chart Smma death cross formed
-happens after Btc lost at least 80% of its value in Usd
-happens when Btc is under its daily 50 Smma
-forms an inverted U with an ascending trendling having almost the exact same "angle"
During the failed...
Before you ask yourself if i just drew these fibonacci levels, the reply is no, they are dating from this chart below
Same as in 2015: .786 is a natural level, it ended up the bear market, so there is definitely a possibility that the same natural move...
I am talking about this weekly 200 Smma, that is still there, very close, and that was hit in 2015, ending up the bear market.
This area around the 2 500$ is also a possible colliding area, coinciding with the end of the 2015 bear market (Monthly...
Bitcoin is starting to form a similar structure as the bottoming structure of 2015.
No double bottom, no spring, no true recognizable bottoming pattern yet, but the market is possibly stabilizing Bitcoin in this area after a V reversal.
The 1week log chart shows some possible similar ranging between the 2 main Smmas:
The monthly candles are starting to look very similar than during this particular 2014 area of the bearish structure, where the bear market was close to its final stages of new lows.
The monthly 50 Smma did hold Bitcoin at the time and created the start of a market bottom, printing a long wick on this Smma.
There were also...
Very early since the Dec leg down
-Analyze of this rectangle range
-break and use of the rectangle resistance line + blue smma = ideal scenario
-break of the rectangle support, = behaviour of Btc when meeting the pink Smma
-Rsi bullish div. with a ranging Btc to be analyzed as a possibility if bottoming here
During the previous waves since the 20k top (around the 6k levels), when Bitcoin formed lower highs, it used to retrace to the 382 or almost to the 382 fibonacci level of the previous bull trap wave.
This is not a target, but a quick basic overview of the buyers strength.
I want to check if the buyers are still having the same buying interest (or not) in this...
This is how i see the current Bitcoin crashing structure.
The breakdown below the 6k descending triangle broke the main bullish structure.
I am expecting a slow declining Usd value, in a sort of similar way of the first Bitcoin bubble.
Lonely differences: market cap, and time frame.
As you can see, the current crashing market is developping around 6x slower than...
Unless you have some spare money and want to gamble, there is still no signal that this is the bottom, or that Bitcoin is reversing. Maybe it is bottoming, but we cannot know it for now.
This bear market could last another year, and why not another years, we do not know.
Bitcoin could reach the 3k support, or hit the weekly pink...
-Bitcoin is crashing slower than expected; (uncorrect time frame)
-Bear market might last longer than expected;
-Crucial support was crucial, Bitcoin rested above it and retested it way more than i would have expected;
-Once support broke Btc immediately dived, to form a bear flag around 5400;
-Then Btc went to the 3.500 and bounced;
-The time frame was not...
Buyers were used to try rallying Bitcoin to the natural 382 level after an important dip and a massive quick sell.
Let us see if buyers are still reproducing this 382 retest, if they are stronger (goes above 382) or weaker (cannot reach...
I would say Bitcoin is at this equivalent area of the previous bear market.
The two daily candles look very similar
If i am correct, this should normally be the wave 3 of the main structure since the 20k
The wave 3 generally does not react to the oversold Rsi (which happened so far), and always produces a weak bounce higher...
Remaining calm and patient is important.
Impossible to know where we are in the bear cycle: maybe Bitcoin bottomed, maybe not.
For exemple, IF, then this would be the bottom :
And this would not
This is impossible to know for now.
But the bottom is most probably not far.
We need to...