Glewis54

Glewis54

Pretty clear Head and Shoulders top formation here. Keep some cash on hand in the event of lower prices. Even as dollar is at a low, silver not doing so well. Sounds like value opportunity to me, at least on the physical side.

Glewis54

Perceived channel looks like it might be worthwhile to buy a couple of puts to take advantage of this potential. Preserve cash in case we do get down to 16. Chances are that physicals might not be available at those low prices. If they are, How I'd love to buy physicals for under $20! Those were the good old days. But maybe we will see it again.

Glewis54

Without too much noise, interest rates appear to be creeping up. In comparing with other trading instruments I watch, it appears to have the biggest potential for a move. As the rising rates indicate an increase in inflation, I've also had my eyes on a few commodities. Inflation has too long been downplayed but we all know the reality of inflation because we...

Glewis54

Basic assumption is that we are in correction phase with higher prices to come. Will be watching premiums on physicals. If those retreat any, I'll add.

Glewis54

With the pennant thought suddenly dashed, the other formation I had been looking at is a head and shoulders. Seems to be an unusual place for such a topping formation to form, but that is what it looks like. Still have lots of cash on hand as I had recently sold my Jan 2021 options in an effort to roll out to 2022. See also that the 2023 LEAP SLV options are...

Glewis54 Updated 

anticipating a breakout. Appears to be classic Pennant formation that follows a large move.

Glewis54 Updated 

SPY breaks into the stratosphere. No limit on how it will go now. Up another 1/2 percent per day into the election? Anyone see any signs of topping?

Glewis54

Not a sure thing, but I generally look for such signals as a three day, three week or three month tests of highs to signal a sell. With stochastics turning down as well, I took some money off the table in the paper market to raise cash in the even that we do have a decent correction. My appetite for physicals however continues. While the prices may go up and...

Glewis54

Next stop 30??

Glewis54

Last time silver moved like this was in 2010. While one can look for 30, like last time, before any pullback, One has to just sit back and let this puppy run. Everything else is at the highs, why not silver?

Glewis54

Last year when looking at the possible double bottom scenario, an imagined breakout looked something like what we have just seen, especially in the cash trade where prices rallied to a serious resistance level. The Double Bottom scenario assumed that we would break through resistance and then back down to test the break out level. Support here, at just...

Glewis54

As mentioned before the Wave 5 in commodities is often the most explosive. We are seeing it today. Curious if the March selloff below previous lows was an aberration, if that can be, and we go back to the double bottom theory. We are right there, at least in XAG, have to see how it plays out in SLV later. In that theory, we would have a breakout above this...

Glewis54

I had been watching the 17.69 level as a possible "neckline" for a reverse head and shoulders formation. Strength continues so just sitting back and letting it play out. As always, I try hard to suppress my optimism but the strength has definitely shown proof that the move is impulsive.

Glewis54

Added a bunch of 2022 LEAPs just in case. Could see an explosion. At least if wrong, my time frame has been extended out another year

Glewis54

My expectation for some downside action last week did not occur. On Friday, thought it was going to happen with a quick slam down to 16.30 but by the time I could blink, it was quickly rising back up. Such a bid in the paper market is to say the least, a bit surprising after the long, sustained selling that we have seen for years. I guess I'm not used to it at...

Glewis54

Looks like it can go down to 15.50. What comes next? Not sure but have been lightening up on my paper longs.

Glewis54

As suggested a couple of weeks back, a three week test of the high (on the closing basis) tested and failed. On an interday view, I was looking for a possible high of 16.65. We got up to 16.60 and fell from there. I took the opportunity to sell off some of the in-the-money Jan 2021 calls, as if this setup proves correct, no telling how low prices might...

Glewis54

Looking ahead, not certain where we are in the Wave formation. Did we just complete a wave 1 of a new bull phase? Or a Wave B of a correction? Only time will tell. We can see the two previous tops. My automatic expectation going forward is something similar to the yellow circle where we see what has been a typical three week testing of the high. The closing...