I had to go all the way up to the monthly to find some kind of pattern because everything else is pure chaos.
I don't trade these timeframes and wont be trading this instrument but this looks like a short squeeze right here.
There is a reason its doing this. Equities are at all time highs, dollar is weakening, vix is falling.
Still cannot bring myself to be a...
Regression shows reversals off 2nd deviation channel. Every time it reversed it made it back to the mean. The market might be looking for fundamentals to create a reason to go short.
Something to consider.
What I am seeing:
Price has been rejected in this supply zone on a few occasions near price level 1.08900
Price has been accepted at a demand zone near price level 1.08200
Reversals out of supply back into demand.
Buying appears strong. Selling appears to be weak. Technically this looks like buyers are lurking below but for the time...
Dollar is strong across the board. If this pushes higher then hopefully it will get into an overextended condition and might be good opportunity to take a short.
Must be patient.
For long positions, anything that pulls back to the bottom of the rising channel has a potential for a long.
4 hour chart shows what looks like exhaustive buying as price looks like it is leaning over and could not break the prior swing high.
Rally up could be protected by 0.638. Stop will be placed beyond this price level.
Top of descending channel would coincide with approximately 705 fib retrace.
Looks like second attempt to push higher was stopped at 1300.
Price is currently at support of 1269 and should it break this level and hold then 1220 looks like an easy target.
A double bottom could be forming here (which could mean a push back up to 1300) but to me it looks like bears are still firmly in control.
Im still short biased as the recent bear candles are strong which is inline with the preceding selloff. Bulls have a lot of strong levels to break through. Bears have it a lot easier.
This could be accumulation though. Have to wait and see, Ill be cautious with longs.
1. Quiet week ahead
I will wait for price to break this range before taking a position. There have been 3 attempts at resistance which leads me to think that players need liquidity and will go hunting within this range
1. I think if we continue to see dollar strength then the emerging markets will continue to weaken.
2. This is also a big round number level. Traders will be reacting here.
Hopefully a pinbar will give us an opportunity on this one.
Although price has reversed here a few times before, I would be watching for a push below this level as the big players look for liquidity. If price breaks 45 Ill look for opportunities to the 50 level.
A break below and the obvious target is 40.
Ill be watching this one closely.