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SNAP went down some 7% on Thursday on little news, and with some attributing this fall to a single tweet. This market capitalisation loss of $1.5bn looks more like profit-taking after the recent stellar performance. The stock held the support line of post-earnings breakout at $17, and continues to fall but in low volume. In the absence of further negative news,...

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The 10% correction is now behind us, as the market is proving resilient. All short term technicals are back in the green (daily chart). What we need now for a full resumption of the previous uptrend is: - Volume confirmation of the current reversal - A close above the triangle which I drew on the daily chart Taking profits on my long volatility position (VXX) for...

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LULU has been toying with its historical high around 82 since mid 2013... It is now back there and attempted yet another breakout above its historical high as late as last week. It has also been building a base since Dec 2017 towards the very top of its current range. All these elements make a breakout more probable, but not guaranteed. I would watch and interpret...

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SHAK sold off hard last week notwithstanding improving numbers (revenues +31%) It is currently rebounding on the SMA200 support, which has proved resilient so far. The SMA 200 support level also corresponds to the medium term support line (Aug 2017 to date). Finally, the daily candle today (hammer) comes as an added confirmation of potential rebound. I would...

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The US Equity market has been visibly gearing for a correction since mid Jan this year (please see related comments below). A 10% fall in one week is a good start; We are now half way to a new, bear paradigm. Yesterday was technically as bad, if not worse, than Monday: - The S&P 500 was in a downtrend all day; - It fell on greater volume than average (2x); -...

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TSLA's technical picture is mixed and the stock is trading in the middle of a one-year channel. Very little cues from the market as to the potential direction post earnings (tonight). The stock has been quite volatile and should remain so in the current environment. Buy Feb 16'18 $355 calls which are 3.9% out of the money. I paid $7.55/share for them. Bet on ...

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The index attempted to rebound yesterday for a second day and failed. Yesterday it pulled up most of the day and ended below the open and below the previous close in high volume. It would have to climb some 7% to claim back its previous up-trending channel. This will take time, if we ever get there. More caution is warranted from here.

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SNAP held it ground yesterday, ending the day up in good volume in a terrible market. This confirms that the stock is heavily shorted (c. 30%) and has a limited propensity to fall further from here. It also augurs well ahead of earnings, but is no guarantee of performance as the stock has proven to be extremely volatile, especially around company releases. In...

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WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY? The market was down significantly yesterday in an organized, structured manner, without much panic. As if the operators knew that the time for consolidation would come, and had collectively decided that the time was now, on the Monday of Feb 5, 2018. Let's point out that this was probably the most widely anticipated correction: The market...

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My cautious call of 2 weeks ago may have been premature (see link below). However, we are now seeing additional cautionary signals on the SPX : 1. Two consecutive down days at the beginning of this week; 2. Visible break yesterday on the index (gap down); 3. Reasonable volume on the downside; 4. Traded and closed below SMA10; 5. Tech...

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THE BACKDROP Strong uptrend still in place in the longer term time frame. In the medium-term, some mixed signals and hesitation. Short-term, the stock continues to show strength by testing its intraday all time high at 190.66, ahead of earnings publication tonight. FB also remains one of the best growth stories out there, and a “generational” stock to hold for the...

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THE BACKDROP GE closed at $32.25 on Dec 20 2016, at the top of its long term trading channel. The stock has lost 50% since, closing at 16.26 yesterday. This downfall has been ugly, with heavy selling volume, especially most recently. There is no telling how much lower the stock will go. Currently, the stock looks oversold on all time frames and could be ready for...

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Beautiful uptrend in NFLX continues, supported by excellent fundamentals. This is one of my growth stocks of choice. If you own it, you have made the right choice. If you don't, it's not too late. BUY JAN 26'18 $235 CALLS to get exposed synthetically. This provides full upside exposure with no risk of downside if the stock tanks on disappointing earnings....

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BABA’s exceptional run seems to be triple-topping. While the long-term trend remains up, the short and mid-term pictures look like they have turned to the downside. The company should announce earnings on Feb 1 before market open and I would wait for this catalyst to go long, just in case any fundamental disappointment should take us lower to confirm the poor,...

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Yesterday’s session was interesting for multiple reasons. Firstly the S&P configuration: Opening above the previous historic high but slowly eroding intraday from that new top, to end below the previous close in above average volume. Secondly, the technicals on the index suggest a reversal could be at play from a very high RSI above 80 (overbought). Thirdly, the...

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THE DAWN OF ASSET MANAGERS As discussed towards the end of last year, 2018 should be the year of the brokers and asset managers (please watch related ideas below). In this context, and with a dividend yield of 6.36%, BX is probably one of the best asset management pure-plays out there. The trend has been strong on all time frames and the stock is attempting a...

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US Equity indices are perched up at historical highs, while volatility remains historically low and USD-sensitive commodities benefit from lower dollar. This is a perfectly synchronized market move. Expect continuation in the equity uptrend until one of the following happens: 1. Marco disappointment, 2. Corporate earnings disappointment or 3. Surge in Fed Fund...

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This post takes over from the previous one (see below), as we propose to take full profits ahead of earnings publication on July 13. The logic is to entirely remove any risk related to earnings disappointment, while keeping full upside exposure. The cost of this strategy will be < 2% (to be put in perspective with the 22.5% we have achieved so far on the long...