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By Andria Pichidi Pound Crosses UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tweet-reminded his government’s position: “We are ready to work with our friends and partners to get a deal. But if you want a good deal for the UK, you must simultaneously get ready to come out without one.” Johnson, who will be meeting Germany’s Merkel and France’s Macron this week, is above all...

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A risk-off theme propelled the Yen higher while the likes of the China-proxy Australian Dollar, and many developing-world currencies, underperformed. The Brexit-afflicted Pound also posted fresh major-trend lows during a notably thin Asian session (amid holidays in Japan and Singapore) before rebounding some. Cable lifted back above 1.2105 after printing a...

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By Andria Pichidi - August 2, 2019 It was another volatile day in the markets after Wednesday’s post FOMC gyrations. Stocks sold off in Asia overnight,with the Australian 10-year rate dropping nearly 12 bp, GER30 futures are down -1.8 bp, CAC 40 futures down -2.1% as fresh China-tariff threats from US President Trump spooked markets. US futures are also broadly...

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By Andria Pichidi - July 29, 2019 Sterling has started the week under a lot of pressure, which follows weekend polls showing, in one case, a 10-point “Boris bounce” swing in favour of the Conservative Party. This will up odds for the new prime minister calling a new election, which he needs to do, and win, if he wants to strengthen his negotiating position with...

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Central bank meetings are the highlight once again, and include those of FOMC, BoE and BoJ. Fed Chairman Powell is expected to deliver a 25 bp rate cut, while markets have already diminished expectations for an outsized 50 bp rate cut by the Fed at its upcoming FOMC, which has returned some support to the US currency. Tuesday - 30 July 2019 Interest rate...

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Following yesterday’s better than expected Durable Goods headline report (but weaker advanced indicators report) what can we expect from today’s US GDP numbers for Q219 ? The market consensus is a growth of 1.8% in Q2, with a sturdy 2.5% growth rate for final sales thanks to solid growth rates of 3.9% for personal consumption and 4.3% for government purchases,...

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EURGBP, Daily The risk of a surprise from the ECB has risen after yesterday’s round of weak PMI numbers,¹ which not only highlighted that the German manufacturing sector is sliding deeper into recession, but also that the fallout from global trade tensions and rising risks of a no-deal Brexit scenario is not limited to Germany. Today’s Ifo reading is unlikely to...

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The Euro remains under pressure following the PMI data dump. Earlier the key economies of France and Germany posted weaker than expected composite numbers with the stand out number being the continuing deterioration in German manufacturing. At 43.1 the index is at a seven-year low and the contraction accelerates as the global trade slow down bites. The country,...

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By Andria Pichidi - July 23, 2019 Brexit will leap back to centre stage now that the new UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has been selected. Already Moody’s and Goldman Sachs’ analysts, among others, have warned of an increased likelihood for the UK leaving the world’s biggest free trade area without an agreement on divorcing terms or an outline of new trading...

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By Andria Pichidi - July 23, 2019 All eyes will be on the ECB on Thursday with Draghi and Co set to confirm that the central bank is heading for additional easing measures as global growth slows down while global trade tensions escalate. First quarter Eurozone GDP numbers came in stronger than expected, but were boosted by special factors including stock...

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Gold has been in demand for nine consecutive weeks and with the dollar outlook weakening where could everyone’s’ favourite precious metal move to next? Gold has been in demand for nine consecutive weeks and with the dollar outlook weakening where could everyone’s’ favourite precious metal move to next? 9 Weeks Up The rally in the Commodity complex and...

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By Stuart Cowell - July 17, 2019 USOil fell 3% yesterday following comments from US Secretary of State Pompeo in a cabinet meeting, who said that for the first time, Iran is prepared to negotiate on its missile programme. Since the downing of the US drone by Iran in the Persian Gulf, US/Iran tensions have been high. This news may signal a shift of policy in...

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Copper, a key industrial metal bounced from June lows on Wednesday (July 10) breaking the 20-day moving average. It held gains into the end of last week as the USD weakened. The move has followed-through today (July 15) on the back of better than expected Chinese Industrial Production data. The engulfing nature of the July 10 candle was a strong bullish signal....

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UK GDP growth grew at 0.3% in May in line with expectations, helping to lift the beleaguered GBP, but other industrial manufacturing production data was weaker than expected with previous estimates also being revised lower. Both the services and production sectors grew by 0.3% in the 3 months to May 2019, contributing positively to headline GDP growth. However,...

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By Andria Pichidi - July 10, 2019 Bank of Canada’s announcement is expected to result in no change in rates and a repeat of the data-driven mantra. Given that recent data has been consistent with their ongoing view that the economy is on the mend from the Q4/Q1 weakness, the takeaway should be for continued steady policy through year end. For example, the latest...

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By Andria Pichidi - July 6, 2019 An interesting week is coming up, following a confirmation that the US and China will resume trade negotiations.Market attention is also honed in on the central banks, as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress. In the UK, the focus turns to GDP. Monday – 8 July 2019 Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00)...

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By Andria Pichidi - July 9, 2019 Brexit: There continues to be a dearth of anything approaching what might be called a substantive development. But there are signs of what the tone of “final” negotiation into the revised October 31st Brexit deadline will be. First off, the Conservative Party’s leadership looks set to deliver Boris Johnson as the new prime...

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USD firming has been a prevalent theme so far today as USDJPY, EURUSD and Cable all breach post-NFP positions. 109.00 1.1200 1.2500 All these key round numbers are very much "in play". USD Bid ahead of Powell, Clarida and Bullard.