Miners have been on a tear in the past couple of months, now they are overreacting as gold makes the path down.
I am already exposed to gold short from 1230-e40; then added at 1255, as per previous ideas.
Now I am looking at the miners to hedge for the weekend. If gold breaks down under 1220, it will get ugly and the market seems to be accounting for said drop...
Tonight is big.
The chart is self explanatory,
I have started taking out my long positions and accumulating shorts.
Though the bull run remains strong and just because of one candle down, it does not signal a crash.
TBH, there are a lot of reasons for gold to run hot in the past month, to me it was USD weakness that attracted the first wave of speculative...
The Dollar is not regressing upward and making some of its losses in anticipation of Yellen reiterating the policies of a hawkish fed.
Though the dollar is fundamentally strong, and for good reasons, there is a conflict in the wishes of the White House vs. The Federal Reserve.
There will most likely be more downward pressure afterward as it over-extends.
Miners seem to be waiting for Gold above 1219/20 as a breakout. The next fib level will be around 1235-1240.
TP at 25
TP2 at 24.75
This is if we break the cup and handle.
If you are a shorter term trader I suggest waiting to see for a clear breakout and buying the momentum.
PBOC will sell more dollar as the greenback approaches the 7 mark. When you see their volume hitting the highs buy gold.
Alternatively, you can buy gold no and sell at MA crossing on the 1H, and then some more at the top of triangle.
This is a high reward/risk trade.
Go get them.
Fundamentals for USD, i.e. hawkish fed leading to strong 10y is expected to continue, althought this is a very short-term trade into the night.
Got in at 116.705
Warning. Watch out for the MA and fib levels and it could retest bottom of the channel also.
I have a moving SL, and don't mind getting out earlier - you shouldn't either.
Trade within your limits...
I want to first direct your attention to last year, as most traders have also seen the resemblance between the start of the bullish market and this year. This will also play (due to the blatant resemblance) into the fear of bears that have leverage futures to really drive this metal down.
Second, this is the lowest levels of RSI continuity also...