Huntz

Huntz

XLE just broke down from its ascending channel, which might be signalling that the market is pricing in a global slowdown. XLE also broke down from an ascending channel in '08 and '14. In the case of 2008, SPX crashed. But in 2014, SPX traded sideways/flat for a while

Huntz

Whenever the price of XLE and SPX diverge, we seem to get a massive crash. XLE creeps higher, but SPX makes new lows. Historically, what tends to happen next is that SPX falls off a cliff, as was the case in the 2000 and 2008 bear markets. Today in 2022, XLE was creeping higher as SPX was making new lows. What happens next?

Huntz Updated 

Pretty interesting relationship between QQQ vs SPY. QQQ/SPY started massively deviating from the long term trend around March 2020. We've since reverted to the mean a bit, and are now potentially showing signs of a top, which would mean QQQ is set to underperform vs SPY. Double top scenario: -we get rejected off the 21-week EMA, then break down from the...

Huntz

The rally we experienced in the last month was simply to retest the top of these two channels. The market is respecting those resistances and staying within the range of the channels. It might give you an idea of where we trade in the coming months. Note: I'm using $AAPL here as a proxy for the overall market.

Huntz Updated 

The price action between 2014 and 2022 is different, there is no doubt about that. But look at the moving average (yellow line) of the RSI. It is very similar, almost identical. There were 6 key moves in the 2014 bull cycle which I highlighted on the chart. There seem to be 6 corresponding key moves for the current cycle as well. The 6th move, which marks a...

Huntz

When the price of Oracle reverts to the mean, then we know it's over. Current price action is a repeat of the 2000 dotcom bubble. That's my running thesis right now.

Huntz Updated 

This is the monthly chart for QQQ, using log scale. H&S pattern in the RSI seems to precede market volatility. It happened in 2016 and 2018. It seems like another head & shoulders pattern could be forming this year. We're already showing signs of a bearish divergence between monthly price and monthly RSI, so it's possible the RSI makes a lower high to form...

Huntz

A huge bearish divergence that started in Feb 2020 might be indicating a pullback is coming. Historically speaking, all the bearish divergences in the past have usually signalled tops and resulted in large drawdowns.

Huntz

Just comparing current day to 2018. It does seem a little similar. We could see a 10% move down to reach the box.

Huntz

It appears we might see a bearish cross on the monthly MACD for SPY. The histogram reached its highest level back in Jun-Aug 2021. The histogram measures the spread between the two EMAs. We might conclude that we've never seen the market rally as much as this in such a short amount of time. The Covid recovery was truly unprecedented. The QQQ monthly MACD has...

Huntz

I took the bar pattern of the 2000 bubble pop and subsequent bear market and copied it to the present day to see what it would look like. I did adjust the shape a little to make the H&S look more symmetrical, just like the H&S in 2000. You can see it fits rather well. - The RSI is topping and expected to trend lower. - The bottom of the breakdown lines up...

Huntz

Things are looking very similar to how they did in October 2018. > In 2018 FAAMG fell by 25%. > If we correct 25% like we did in 2018, it would take us to the lower support of this ascending channel. > A 25% correction would also take us perfectly to the 100-week MA. > Bearish divergences are shaping up in similar ways as well. It's interesting to note the...

Huntz

I'm seeing a lot of similarity between the Covid crash and current day. WHAT HAPPENED DURING COVID CRASH: -Closed red at the end of Friday -Gapped lower on Monday -Broke support levels and then smashed through the 200 EMA (4H) -Retested the 200 EMA (4H) but got rejected -Dropped another 30% before bottoming out SIMILARITIES: -This Friday we closed red and we...

Huntz

Is it just me or does this look like the fine work of Richard Wyckoff?!?

Huntz

When ever Apple hits the top of the rising wedge, it seems to experience at least a 30% correction shortly after. The points at which that happens are highlighted by the yellow circles. The bottom of the rising wedge seems to be where the price eventually bottoms out (blue circles), but it has broken down from the rising wedge before. Right now, the top of...

Huntz

Closed below the yellow trend line on the 4H (log scale). The trend line seems to be significant since January 2021. On the linear scale, however, we haven't broken that trend line yet.

Huntz Updated 

Seems like a H&S pattern is forming on the 1H. If we break down then price target is the 28.5k support level. 28.5k was confirmed as a strong support level 3 times back in January of this year. The H&S pattern is even clearer on the ETH and ADA charts. We will have to see if we bounce, but it's looking bearish from here.

Huntz

BTC/ETH chart might be reversing right now. A bounce off the lower support level of the descending channel might have initiated this reversal. 50% outperformance by BTC is possible.