So far in history, Bitcoin has been above the Weekly 50 MA going into a halving.
However, we are currently under the Weekly 50 MA with roughly a month until halving.
Yes, it is true that Bitcoin has never gone through a pandemic recession.
At the moment, I expect us to stay below the 50 MA until June-July, before starting a long-term bull market.
Drawing simple charts is not easy, because a trader's mind always wants to account for every risk. But, I have tried to do it here.
The chart says it all. The horizontal line is important because it was the bottom before we rallied to $10.5k in early-2020.
If we can close our weekly candle above the 200 weekly MA support, that means we most likely already saw the bottom.
If we close our weekly candle below the 200 weekly MA support, then I see $3200-$3500 levels as a possibility. Although it is unlikely, it is possible to have a $1000 dollars Bitcoin if we break $3200-$3500 convincingly.
The chart show long-term support at the current price levels. While this can break, I expect $BTC to have a short-term rally. Traders may use the rally to exit their LONG positions and the price can fall further.