JStanleyFX

JStanleyFX

While low rates are helpful for corporates and as we've seen since the GFC that can help to drive investment away from Fixed Income. But falling rates creates competition and opportunity cost for investors. With TLT sitting at 12 year lows despite seeing massive inflows, it becomes a waiting game for when the FOMC might eventually cut. Investors buying bonds...

JStanleyFX

One of the outliers from the equity sell-off was the fact that SPX seemed to lead the way lower, with NQ retaining relative strength. As an example, ES tested through the 200dma, NQ did not. If this were the 'big' sell-off, one would think that NQ would lead the way, similar to how the sell-off priced in last year when NQ was down as much as 36.52% from the highs...

JStanleyFX

last week was the first weekly close below 2k in GC since the recent breakout. Weekly chart highlights the multi-year range, big question is whether sellers have enough to re-take control of near-term trends this week. I don't doubt that Gold can prod a lasting move above 2k, I just don't think that'll happen until the Fed pivots and I'm not expecting that while...

JStanleyFX

USD has been sold hard since early-March when the banking crisis came into the equation. But now that banks aren't looking so bad and rates in the US have been going up, USD has started to exhibit early tendencies of a possible bottom. Last week was the first weekly bar that didn't sell-off since early-March, around when the banking crisis started to get...

JStanleyFX

not a setup chart but still interesting... USD/JPY in response to headline CPI YoY since 2021. The red line is the Powell pivot on 'transitory,' the blue line the first rate hike in March of last year.

JStanleyFX

ARKK was up as much as 40.57% from the May low to this week's high. A whopping figure by any account, but given how aggressive the sell-off was leading into the May low, that run can still be considered a pullback in a broader bearish trend. With SPX and NQ making fresh lows in June, ARKK did not, which was unusual because for much of the bearish trend in Q1...

JStanleyFX

Parity came into play earlier in the week and, normally, a major psychological level of this nature would stall the move for a little bit. But, USD strength is just dominating at the moment and parity is holding bears back from a deeper break. Looks like a short-term head and shoulders setting up, with parity as the neckline. Keeps door open for a breakdown in...

JStanleyFX

we're starting to see divergence in European credit spreads again, so wanted to publish this so that we can all follow along as this theme continues to evolve.

JStanleyFX

Gold set a fresh two-month-low this week. Support played in off of a prior swing low at 1854 but, the bounce from that level was cut short as price action started to find resistance at a spot of significant support. That support spans from the 1900 level up to 1923.70, which was the all-time-high for a decade before Gold burst through that level in the summer of...

JStanleyFX

Another week of heartbreak for Gold bulls... Gold geared up for a breakout on Monday and on Tuesday, price action finally tested above the 1850 level. This was confluent with a bearish trendline connecting the ATH to the November swing-high. Given the rather healthy bullish construction that had showed in the few weeks prior, the door seemed open to upside. But...

JStanleyFX

There's a bullish channel in the Nasdaq that started around the 2020 Presidential election and held the lows all the way into 2022 trade. This week saw that channel shredded through as NQ quickly went into an oversold state on the Daily chart. This is only the 2nd such instance of that signal since the pandemic almost two years ago, and the last one of these...

JStanleyFX

EUR/USD put in a breakout this week, running up to fresh two-month-highs even as US inflation printed at 7%. As looked at last week, this appears to be more of a technical move after EUR/USD found support at a significant spot from Fibonacci levels at 1.1187-1.1212. That zone came into play ahead of Thanksgiving and after buyers held support above that area for...

JStanleyFX

EUR/USD is now on week 7 of a small range that's built after a major spot of support came into play. The support emanates from two Fibonacci levels, one at 1187 and the other at 1212. The latter of those prices is the 61.8% retracement of the 'lifetime move' in EUR/USD. The pair came crashing into this zone ahead of the Thanksgiving holidays and that's what had...

JStanleyFX

Gold prices came into the week clinging to a range that had held for the past couple of weeks. Before that, price action had pushed below a bear flag formation, eventually setting a near-term low around 1763 with range support holding around the 1770 level. FOMC brought a quick push of USD strength, which helped Gold to temporarily breach that support. This...

JStanleyFX

The British Pound has been extremely weak of late, even as expectations remain for the BoE to hike rates in 2022. The bank was even expected to hike in November. At the time, the pair was holding just inside of the 1.3900 handle, threatening to break above a bull flag formation that had built in. When the BoE didn't hike, the pair started a swan dive that...

JStanleyFX

Oil is putting in a bounce from the very bottom of the zone looked at on Monday. bulls aren't out of the woods just yet, but this has the makings of what could become a reversal theme. Next major levels - 70 big fig, 71 swing res, 72.45 recent swing high, above that and targets can shift back to 75.

JStanleyFX Updated 

I had warned of a pullback in Crude in early-November. and this comes after a series of breakouts that I've been following on the long side, going back to May Earlier in November, WTI had run into a massive Fibonacci level and prices were very stretched. It was the type of trend that gets funny comments on Twitter if you try to fade. But, good resistance is...

JStanleyFX

Gold is now testing support in the bear flag formation. How we got here... Gold prices broke out above a big level of resistance earlier this month, fueled by a really strong inflation print. But that breakout topped out at 1876, where a 50% marker resides from a longer-term Fibonacci retracement. As that resistance began to show, Gold prices built that bear...