JWagnerFXTrader

JWagnerFXTrader

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is a sentiment measure of the crypto market. The index is at its highest level since April 2022 and has made a tremendous rebound in just a couple of weeks in 2023. The problem is that sentiment is a contrarian indicator. The index has pushed to a multi-month high while price has yet to forcefully push to higher highs. In fact,...

JWagnerFXTrader

$MATIC has held up well over the summer of 2022 while the rest of crypto fell. Here are 2 possible counts I'm considering that imply another rally. The first is a triangle pattern (black labels) and the second is a w-x-y combo (blue). If its the triangle, this rally is wave (d), then a brief setback in wave (e) that leads to a powerful rally. If its the combo,...

JWagnerFXTrader

It appears DXY is nearing the end of a down wave. If the blue count above is correct, then DXY is poised to rally back to 106-108. I can count the minimum waves in place for the downtrend to be completed. There might be another jab lower, but this downtrend is mature and in need of a bounce. Pricing above 105.05 increases the odds this Elliott wave count is...

JWagnerFXTrader

Gold prices appear to be forming an Elliott Wave diagonal pattern. This pattern is confirmed on a break down below the support trend line near $1820. If this is a leading diagonal, then a correction to $1710 is considered the next "normal" move. If this is an ending diagonal, then a correction to below $1620 would be expected. This pattern is valid so long as...

JWagnerFXTrader

Crude oil is falling in a 'C' wave that likely reaches $62 or lower levels. The 'C' wave will likely take on a motive structure (impulse pattern or ending diagonal). Once the final low is printed, then crude will rocket up to new all-time highs. If the decline in wave 'C' is not a motive structure, then it will be a big clue that it is wave 'C' of a large...

JWagnerFXTrader

The rally in BTC begins to breathe new life into crypto. The top at today's $45k does push the bounds that Bitcoin is still inside of a smaller triangle pattern. If indeed BTC is still grinding through a bullish barrier triangle, then a corrective dip will need to begin immediately that carries BTC back down to $41k. A print above $45,426 suggests the triangle is...

JWagnerFXTrader

Bitcoin's path is predicated on it's near-term movements. There are two Elliott wave models we are following. The first one suggests Bitcoin will continue correcting lower from nearby levels. This correction likely retests the Jan 24 low. This model suggests Bitcoin has rallied in a small degree wave and will correct lower in a small degree wave . The...

JWagnerFXTrader

HBAR is the 33rd largest coin/token by market capitalization. Using Elliott Wave Theory as our guide. $HBAR spent 2020 rallying in wave 1 and correcting in wave 2. Then, in the early days of 2021, HBAR rallied in wave ((iii)) of 3 driving it up near $0.40. The high registered in H2 2021 was the end of minor wave 3 and arrived at the 1.618x wave 1 relationship...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

FTT has rallied then declined in a 5-3 Elliott wave pattern. In Elliott wave terms, when you have a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave decline, most times, it is followed by another five-wave advance. From June 2021 to the Sept 2021 high, prices rallied in a five-wave impulse pattern. Then from September 2021 to the December 2021 low, a three-wave...

JWagnerFXTrader

USDJPY found a top in November from a wave going back to the beginning of 2021. The rise from January 2021 was an ((a))-((b))-((c))- zigzag pattern. The ((b))-wave of the zigzag was a triangle pattern. From there, the ((c))-wave busted higher with wave (v) of ((c)) taking the shape of an ending diagonal. The uptrend culminated into a final wave of multiple...

JWagnerFXTrader

The low in December 2021 for AUDUSD appears to be an important low that likely leads to a rally of .76 and possibly higher levels. The December 2021 low was possibly the end of the corrective wave that began earlier in 2021, or minimally, appears to be the end of the wave that began May 2021. Either way, a rally is developing to correct a portion and possibly...

JWagnerFXTrader

Bitcoin's pattern and recent price action suggests new all-time highs are on the horizon. If you stand back and look at the price action from the summer 2021 low, you can clearly see 3 waves rally. (see the black trend lines). Now, I have this listed as an extended wave 3. But, if we were to play devil's advocate for a moment, the market moves in patterns of...

JWagnerFXTrader

Binance (BNB) is unloading a trend wave that could reach $1500 within the next few months. Using Elliott Wave Theory as our guide, we inspect the market’s trends (called waves) to determine where we are within the 8-wave Elliott wave sequence. Within the idealized 8-wave structure, the market rallies in five waves followed by a three wave setback labeled A-B-C. ...

JWagnerFXTrader

EURUSD has been digging lower since January 2021. It appears this 10-month bearish wave is about to end as we can count the minimum waves in place. The 10-month Elliott wave pattern would be considered a double zigzag labeled ((w))-((x))-((y)). Each of the waves ((w)) and ((y)) are zigzag patterns. Additionally, the whole pattern has retraced back to 1.16...

JWagnerFXTrader

Earlier today, DJI pushed to a high that overlapped the previous low (see yellow rectangle). That overlap eliminates the rally as being wave 4 of a bearish impulse. That overlap does not eliminate lower levels, but does restrict how the count can be made. One possibility is that DJI is unloading in a wave 3 lower and today's rally was simply wave (ii) of 3. In...

JWagnerFXTrader

The Elliott Wave analysis for gold is bullish on the recent move above $1800. This price movement suggests the crash low on August 8 was a 'C' wave. A new wave higher has begun that will most likely terminate above $1920. So far, gold is building a nice impulsive wave. Prices may scoot straight up to $1920 OR pause first around $1840 before extending its run...

JWagnerFXTrader

GBPUSD looks ripe for a turn higher. We've been anticipating for a few weeks a dip in the latter portion of a 4th wave. Now, the dip has come. The bullish outlook for Cable (GBPUSD) is based on prices holding above 1.3483. A print below 1.3483 will create a need to go back to the drawing board for the Elliott wave picture of this market. There are 2 main...

JWagnerFXTrader

One of the benefits of Elliott wave is that it provides context for describing market behavior. A correct interpretation of the Elliott wave pattern can help you forecast important turning points. With these turning points identified, solid risk to reward ratio opportunities can be bubbled up as well. We have such a case within USDJPY. The choppy and...