JWagnerFXTrader

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

EURGBP appears to be finishing a move lower as the pair plows into a cluster of wave relationships. It appears to be close to finishing wave 4 (w-x-y). That wave count suggests a 5 wave move higher that could reach .8150. When you draw a trend line connecting the end of wave 1 & 3, then duplicate that line to the end of wave 2 to obtain an approximate area for...

JWagnerFXTrader

With the Fed beating the drum of rate increases, many are looking for the Greenback to fundamentally strengthen. Though when and if the Fed actually increases rates is a debate for another day, let's look at the technical picture for EURUSD. It appears we are finalizing the 4th wave of a 5 wave diagonal pattern. We're looking for this 4th wave to terminate in...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

With the ECB event risk Thursday morning, let's take a step back and see what the higher probability patterns are. The preferred patterns being watched are bullish in nature. Both bullish patterns suggest we are in the 'C' wave of a large flat correction that began in March 2015. The March 24 low is the key level for the immediate bullish price action. A...

JWagnerFXTrader

The break above 1.1087 on Feb 3 eliminated the bearish impulse and left us with higher probability patterns of: *A 5 wave move higher beginning Dec 2015 that likely overcomes 1.1720 (bullish) *A bearish diagonal such that last week's 1.1376 high was wave 2 of the diagonal (near term bearish to below 1.0517) Though prices have sold off 200+ pips from last...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

On Wednesday afternoon (or Thursday morning in the Eastern part of the world), we have 2 central bank rate announcements within a couple hours time; 1) FOMC, 2) RBNZ.. This post is meant to assess the wave patterns prior to the news with key levels in focus. The bigger picture pattern we've been tracking is a W-X-Y dating back to 2011. This is a big pattern to...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

In yesterday's webinar for the TradingView community, we talked about the EURUSD in the current market environment. (see the video clip from the 1:26:07 - 1:27:45 mark -> www.youtube.com ) It appears as though the pair has finished a blue 'b' wave triangle and we are thrusting lower in the 'c' leg of a zig zag. There is another alternative that resolves as a...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

We've written about the GBP/USD a couple of times over the past month or so anticipating a wave 'B' bottom. This week, Sterling pivoted at the point where wave 'B' could be a false break down. This pattern we're favoring is the expanded flat pattern that began on March 18 2015. Wave A is a double (flat-x-zigzag) that terminated on June 17, 2015. Wave B as...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Last night, the Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates which made for a weaker Yen driving the GBPJPY higher. Last week, we anticipated a move up to the 174 region and now that we are there AND we have the BOJ driving negative interest rates, do we continue higher or is this it? When assessing the intraday charts, there is a strong confluence of wave...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Wednesday afternoon, the Fed shares with us their view on monetary policy in the US. In advance of the news events, we like to take a step back and assess the patterns on the chart to identify some key levels to watch out for. This allows us to detach as best as possible when the news is released. Going into the news Wednesday afternoon, we're following this...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Wednesday morning (in about 10 hours) we have the Bank of Canada releasing their latest monetary statement. Economists are widely expecting the BOC to hold rates at 50 bp. However, there is some speculation that the recent weakness in oil prices may be a reason to drop rates and leave open the door for negative rates into the future in an effort to help the...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

I've been watching the Sterling closely lately. Though I think we are looking at long term weakness in Sterling, this chart paints a compelling picture of some near term strength brewing for GBP. (GBP/USD paints a similar picture too). 2 points that converged near 164.60: *1 year standard deviation channel typically contains prices *1.618 extension for wave...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

For those intimate with Elliott Wave counting, check out this chart. The EUR/USD and AUD/USD have been diverging in price over the past few days creating some large moves in the EUR/AUD cross pair. The Elliott Wave picture has a wave count that suggests a wave 3 of iii underway from the Jan 19 low. If this is the case, then prices are likely to aggressively...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Tomorrow morning, the US Non-Farm Payroll report will be released which could create some volatility for the USDollar. Today's post is meant to provide a frame work of levels to monitor so when the news is released, we can follow our own plan rather than getting emotionally driven by the market. After careful study of the price action since early December, there...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Last week, we shared an Elliott Wave count which was medium term bullish based on a diagonal pattern that may be ending soon. Today, I would like to add a little twist and another variation of the count. The resolution is similar to the post from last week except prices may dig a little deeper. Under the count above, 1.4639 is the key level that keeps (iii)...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Taking a step back, this move from the summer 2015 highs is either a 'B' wave or a diagonal of some sort. This could be a leading diagonal lower in a wave 3, but the higher probability count is an ending diagonal of a 'B' labeled in the chart above. The wave relationships play out to where the Dec low occurs near 1.618 at multiple levels. Based on the wave...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Multiple Elliott Wave patterns are lining up that suggest EURUSD may fall towards 1.0750. 1) In the context of a medium term bull trend, an a-b-c expanded flat from Dec 3 points to 'c' of 2 to 1.0750, then a larger bull run kicking off 2) A wave 4 triangle suggests this move from Dec 3 to Dec 9 was 'a' of a triangle. 'b' of a triangle likely presses towards...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Today's drop penetrates deep enough into a support zone to consider the risk to reward ratio of a long position. The long position would be based on the current drop being wave iv and that means a wave v higher may begin soon. This pattern is valid so long as prices are above 121.49. First target would be 124 and a secondary target up near 125.35. Below 121.49...

JWagnerFXTrader

It appears the Kiwi has been building impulsive moves higher followed by corrections lower. From an Elliott Wave perspective, circle wave 3 stopped at the 1.618 extension of the circle wave 1 measurement. This is a common relationship between '3' and '1'. If this is the case, then the proposed wave '4' should hold above the Nov 19 wave '1' high of .6593. ...