JazzForex

JazzForex

In a surprise move, the Bank of Canada cut their interest rate last week. This pair immediately rallied upon the release of that news. Tonight, the FOMC stated the timeline of any rate increase would depend on economic data. This statement seems to have given another boost to this pair, bringing the price close to the potential reversal zone (PRZ) of a bearish Bat...

JazzForex

The Australian dollar rose strongly after a report showed the nation’s underlying inflation accelerated. This moved the price of this pair above the B point of a potential bearish bat on the 30M (where its helped further by a daily support level) so this set up qualifies as a trade candidate and it goes on my watch list. Price has travelled only about 40% on the...

JazzForex

This pair had a 300-pip rally yesterday on the 1H when most euro pairs rallied after the Greek election results were known and speculation that the victorious Syriza party would not force an exit from the Eurozone gained ground. It reversed when it ran into strong structure resistance at 178.93. After a pullback its now approaching that same resistance level, but...

JazzForex

The euro had a relief rally yesterday due to speculation the victorious Syriza party in the Greek elections will not force an exit from the Eurozone. This pair therefore spent most of its time yesterday making a 50% retracement of the latest swing low on the 1H but it seems to be preparing for some more downside. I was able to draw an exact 480 pips wide bearish...

JazzForex

Fundamentally, my directional bias for this pair remains to the downside in spite of a positive GBP retail sales % last Friday and good data on the UK employment situation last Wednesday. A real boost to the GBP could come from a rate hike, but the unanimous vote by the BoE members to maintain rates at their current level of 0.5% signals the UK, like many other...

JazzForex

This pair has been ranging in a 290 pip wide bearish channel on the 1H for the last 4 days. The upper trendline has been tested 4 times and the lower trendline twice. The announced QE programme for the Eurozone and the Greek elections this Sunday, with the Syriza Party leading in the polls (looking end to austerity measures and seeking forgiveness for part of the...

JazzForex

This pair has been ranging in a 255 pip wide bearish channel on the 30M for the last 3 days and 18 hours. We can now see the contour of a 5-point extension structure taking shape: a deep bullish Crab pattern. The price comfortably passed the B point on its way towards the potential reversal zone (PRZ) and has progressed 75% on its way to completion point D. Main...

JazzForex

We have a Bat pattern finishing on the 30M chart. Price already tested the PRZ (and overshot it a little, but could still stabilise and reverse nicely) and the RSI is clearly oversold. When defining the PRZ for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1272 AB =...

JazzForex

Arguably the biggest news event this week will be the ECB press conference Thursday 14:30 CET. Officially its just a periodic meeting where they convene to vote on their benchmark interest rate. But in reality, they will discuss the purchase of government bonds and all eyes will be on the press conference after the rate announcement, as the market expects Draghi...

JazzForex

POTENTIAL SCR*W FACTOR 1. Must have a centralised price feed to insure reliability of quote. 1a. There should be no delays, re-quotes, rejections or manipulations of price. 2. Check fine print of contract for any unfair rules they may impose upon you as a trader. 3. Are there conditions in the broker agreement under which profits can be made void and if yes,...

JazzForex

BROKER RISK PROFILE 1. Must be regulated by a regulatory authority. 2. Must have a (relatively) clean regulatory record. 3. Must have they been in business for several years. 4. Must have a segregated bank account for holding retail client funds. 5. Must be a member of a compensation fund, which compensates losses (up to a certain amount) in case of...

JazzForex

FINDING TRADE CANDIDATES You can only profit from that which you can anticipate. So here I describe in detail the steps I take to identify potential trading opportunities. I ensure that as many ideas as possible are taken into consideration. I list 13 concrete steps to do this and how to prioritise the trade candidates. One of those steps, indeed, is scanning the...

JazzForex

REASONS TO TRADE I write in detail why I trade, what I find appealing about it, what motivates me and why I believe I can be a good trader, based on my characteristics as a person and my skillset / competency profile. Tip: its important to be honest in the assessment of yourself and its wise to include input from others to objectify your profile. MY APPROACH I...

JazzForex

This pair has been ranging in a 230 pip wide bearish channel on the 30M for the last 18 days. It sharply dropped 100 pips last Friday, on the back of US hourly earnings data being reported at -0.2%, raising warning flags regarding the economy. On top of that, FED members expressed there will be no hurry to do a rate hike this year. Despite all this, on the daily...

JazzForex

This pair lost more than 200 pips last Friday, following the release of a disappointing UK manufacturing pmi. This leading indicator of economic health unexpectedly dropped to a three month low of 52.5, while experts had expected an increase to 53.7. When later the same day the US manufacturing pmi came out and was unfavourable, the Yen found relative strength,...

JazzForex

Last week the BoJ confirmed its pledge to continue the massive stimulus program, targeting a 2% inflation rate. The FED had one day earlier dropped its pledge to keep borrowing costs near zero for a “considerable time”, though the final statement was somewhat muddled. The theme of these diverging monetary policies will be the underlying driver of increased buying...

JazzForex

This pair has basically been ranging in the daily chart since October. The RBNZ recently disappointed more hawkish investors after announcing interest rates would remain the same until at least the end of April. On top of that, the NZD is correlated to the commodity gold, the price of which has not gone up much the last month despite a full-blown currency crisis...

JazzForex

The Yen has been gaining against the Euro last week in the run up to today’s general elections of the world third largest economy. This was mainly caused by the drop in oil prices, leading to a higher demand for save haven currencies like the Yen. This strengthening weighed on this pair. Polls meanwhile show the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to win...