Sell NatGas up here - 13 year trendline tag on daily. Short via futures or long $KOLD
Natural Gas has a strong seasonality - and May is only 2 weeks away.
Look how insanely clean the tag was on the 1hr chart.
Looking for short the indexes this week. Ain't no rally like a bear market rally!
/ES had a nice squeeze, recaptured the 50w SMA - but it got capped at the 200dma. We had a 50% retracement, but we have lots of overhead resistance such as the 200dma and daily Ichimoku Clouds.
I'm looking for shorts to reset and looking for a flush to ~4000 or so - then buy...
Pretty interesting chart here.
The 10year yields have now retraced .618 of the move from the 2018 highs to the Covid 2020 lows.
FOMC is in 2 days - if Powell offers no surprises, I wouldn't be shocked to call this the top in the 10 year for now. IF we start to get a reversal in rates - get long bonds such as $TLT or $ZROZ - and tech might even rally.
NQ1! broke the 50w SMA but we need to backtest and confirm the break IMO. That said, there are lots of headwinds this coming week with the Fed tightening, overall weakening Economy, margin compression etc
NQ1! is now trading -4 standard deviations from its 50dma
I strongly believe that we can use this bounce for...
Oil has been on an absolute tear since early December. The current price trend has formed a rising wedge and now we are into the resistance trendline from the highs last fall.
I tend to be a contrarian and fade the mob - every talking head and news outlet is talking about how we have to go long commodities, and the "buy commodities" narrative is all on the...
NG is getting oversold on the daily - its back to July Levels.
Initial indicator was to long NG once we bounced off the green trendline. 9dma/20dma rejected NG today so we just have to wait, but this could be a decent swing trade!
As we enter the final leg of the secular bull market, lots of folks are pointing to look at how broad the rally will be.
Industrials have one of the cleanest, and healthiest charts of all the sectors that I can find. Classic consolidation/bull flag to test the 200d SMA and 50w SMAs. There are lots of ways to play this, but I see the sector having at least...
The Global Economy is slowing down.
China is slowing, DXY is spiking, and the case for base metals is starting to wane.
Looking at things like NG1! and Copper, things are starting to look like blow off tops.
I am slowly building a large longer term Copper short position that I can scale into - TP will me the weekly 50 SMA.
I have found the most rewarding...
Oil looks to be breaking out of a 2 month long descending wedge. The 100d Linear Regression Channel had us bounce off the top in August, and the bottom in Sept. We have Stacked Inverse Head & Shoulders - massive upside possible.
Today things that oil has accomplished TODAY (9/2/2021):
1) Cleared 9d/100d confluence
2) Cleared the 20w SMA
3) new weekly...
NG1! might be doing one of its epic fake outs - right here at a very key level.
Fundamentals - there is a giant Category 4 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that is going to slam into Louisiana and the NG/Oil rigs. I bet this drives a lot of traders into the energy space.
Technicals - Fisher traders will note NG made a very late day A up on Friday. NG also...
Bonds appear to be breaking out alongside DXY.
Record amounts of shorts have been piled onto Bonds to the order of 4 sigma - everyone and their dog is short bonds - so you know what that means!
Rates aren't rising, the Bond market sees what is coming - and it is deflationary. Use a leveraged Bond ETF such as TMF to capture the big move in bonds!
Monthly chart doesn't look that great IMO, ripe for at least aa 20% correction.
Monthly price is extended WAY above MAs, and rejected to top trendline that runs back to 2008.
Lumber Prices have gone down a LOT - check LBS1!
Everyone that wants to buy a home - has bought one. We are about to enter a...
The DXY has been super strong lately and lots of folks are wondering where the final target is.
One way to do this, is to view a leveraged currency ETF to try and identify patterns. The ETF leverage amplifies the movements you might otherwise of missed.
Classic Inverse Head & Shoulders on EUO. EUO is a -2x EURUSD ETF that you can trade in the stock market....
See my other post talking about how the SPX could be near a 100 year topping pattern.
With BTC down >50% thus far, could BTC be the canary in the coal mine for the broader market? Historically,
All indexes look to be topping out on larger Time Frames (such as weekly/monthly) - so where does that leave the Nasdaq?
Do we get some sort of global deflationary...
Long term trends on overall market are looking weak.
SPX has a megaphone on the weekly/Monthly chart - typical signals of a chart. We look around the market right now and speculative excess and ferver are everywhere - from BTC to DOGECoin to meme stocks - Next crash on SPX should run ~50% or so, and take 2-4 months. Maybe we get a 3rd touch on megaphone by Sept 1st 2021?