JoelAdams00

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Last visit Joined 2 years ago Canada ca.linkedin.com/in/joeldavidadams
Markets Allocation
38 % stocks 17 % commodities 45 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 20% | 6 SPY 10% | 3 USOIL 6% | 2 W1! 6% | 2
JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 FXI, D, Long , 2 months ago
FXI: FXI Oppertunity
34 0 4
FXI, D Long
FXI Oppertunity

China had a monstrous collapse in 2015, after that rally it is now showing some short term weakness. The problems they face are currency, slowing growth, and house prices. I believe that house price may effect stock prices but it shouldn't be something that effects the whole market because the problem is evident, when we know about the problem we protect against ...

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 INDA, W, Long , 2 months ago
INDA: India set up
34 0 6
INDA, W Long
India set up

Within the interest rate cycle all countries are at different phases, Japan is the leader followed by Europe followed by USA followed by Emerging Markets. With an interest rate around 6.2% they are far from the lower band thus behind the USA in the cycle. Since the USA had rates around 6.2% coming down from 8% in the 1990s we can assume this is about where India ...

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 NGF2017, D, Short , 2 months ago
NGF2017: Changing weather
67 0 5
NGF2017, D Short
Changing weather

Natgas has been on a great run because of the cold area over Canada that may enter the USA. However last two days it has become less like to enter the plains. As natgas is overbought, calendar spreads showing relative weakness, and larger than normal volumes in inverse etfs, all these factors support my opinion of warmer weather next week. aka lower natgas prices.

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 W1!, D, Long , 4 months ago
W1!: Long Wheat that is all.
38 0 2
W1!, D Long
Long Wheat that is all.

Just long wheat covered calls for the next 3 years.

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 NGAS, D, Short , 5 months ago
NGAS: Natural Gas weakness compared to spreads
87 0 1
NGAS, D Short
Natural Gas weakness compared to spreads

Natural Gas in seasonally slightly bearish, the dec16-dec17 spread is showing a lot of weakness compared to the spot price. I'm short from around 2.9 looking for 2.75 and we'll see from there.

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 CL1!, D, Short , 6 months ago
CL1!: Oil vs Spreads
63 0 2
CL1!, D Short
Oil vs Spreads

Notes on Chart

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 XOM/88.63-XLE/70.77+2, D, Long , 6 months ago
XOM/88.63-XLE/70.77+2: XOM vs XLE
44 0 2
XOM/88.63-XLE/70.77+2, D Long
XOM vs XLE

we know XOM is the largest and best integrated in the business. However, last couple weeks it has heavily under performed the XLE. Lets look for a convergence in price. Long XOM and short XLE in a 1:1 ratio. (I'm still learning how to properly match volatility in pairs trades but I think this should be ok) FYI not real money just recording it here for learning ...

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 GLD*2.66666/128.85-GDX/31, D, Long , 6 months ago
GLD*2.66666/128.85-GDX/31: Long gold short Gold Companies
60 0 2
GLD*2.66666/128.85-GDX/31, D Long
Long gold short Gold Companies

Gold companies have rallied well vs gold itself since january. Let's see if this reverts. I think I properly volatility (not a expert on this) 2.666 the notional value in gold vs 1 notional value in gdx. not doing this with really money just a theoretical exercise.

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 USOIL, 240, 6 months ago
USOIL: Ok who's right here?
74 0 3
USOIL, 240
Ok who's right here?

I'm mostly recording this for my own personal records. The crude oil market has been fundamentally bearish and therefore price has dropped from 52ish to 40ish. Today we got a clearly bearish EIA report, however the gasoline draw was large it was not enough to offset the others. Price initially dropped to new lows and since has rallied to almost 41. So the ...

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 W1!, D, Long , 7 months ago
W1!: Possible Divergance on Wheat
33 0 1
W1!, D Long
Possible Divergance on Wheat

I don't trade wheat and won't be taking this trade. I just want keep an accurate log of this idea. The spreads have stopped dropping and are rising while the front month price has continued to sell off. In addition the price of wheat has been in a steady downtrend with in increased rate downward lately, so may be a climax of selling. Seasonally wheat should ...

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 RBZ2016-HOZ2016, D, Short , 8 months ago
RBZ2016-HOZ2016: The widow maker spread RB-HO
85 0 4
RBZ2016-HOZ2016, D Short
The widow maker spread RB-HO

Short RBZ2016 long HOZ2016. Last year the price of RBOB rise relative to the price of HO. Refineries switched to produce more RBOB compared to HO we are now seeing weakness in RBOB compared to HO due to over supply. Looking for $-0.3 As described by traders in industry trade is the widow maker because of the volatility within it.

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 SPX500, 120, 10 months ago
SPX500: SPX500 why you no friendly
71 0 2
SPX500, 120
SPX500 why you no friendly

HS on spx500 everything else is falling apart. USDJPY, oil, triple C bonds, Biotech. Time to abandon ship or buy the dip around 1970.

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 SPX500*DXY, D, 11 months ago
SPX500*DXY: SPX500 with dollar taken into acount
75 0 3
SPX500*DXY, D
SPX500 with dollar taken into acount

I'm sure this isn't a valid chart but it shows us that a lot of the strength in the last week has actually been from the dollar weakening vs other currencies.

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 NFLX*AMZN*GOOG*FB*AAPL, D, a year ago
NFLX*AMZN*GOOG*FB*AAPL: FANG + AAPL
FANG + AAPL

Possible HS on everyone's favorite stocks

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 SPX500, 15, a year ago
SPX500: Oil vs Spx
47 0 1
SPX500, 15
Oil vs Spx

The correlation between Spx500 and oil has been going on for months. Historically it shouldn't be this correlated. I have been watching to see any changed to this correlation, I figure it will come at a price extreme for one of the two. Today we saw a lot of volatility which can mean a change in attitude. I noticed in the last bit of the day and into after ...

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 SPX500, D, Long , a year ago
SPX500: FED RAKE HIKE
129 0 1
SPX500, D Long
FED RAKE HIKE

Same old story will the fed high rate or not? Here we go, I believe the fed will hike rates next week. However I believe it will be a one and wait and this will be taken very positively for the market. This one and done idea is more important than the hike hike it self. Watch old Janet talk about it here ...

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 SPX500, D, a year ago
SPX500: 2015 vs 2011
68 1 1
SPX500, D
2015 vs 2011

This looks to familiar not to bring up. The main difference I see is that the retrecements down after the initial drop are larger in 2011 than 2015 (double). However same thing going into the end of the year. Just here for everyone to see.

JoelAdams00 JoelAdams00 SPY, D, a year ago
SPY: Short the Market, Long Oil
57 0 3
SPY, D
Short the Market, Long Oil

I know oil looks very bearish but I think the market has much more downside potential. Also I have experience working in the oil business and it's much more emotional than you think. When they see oil below 40 they are gonna get scared and react.

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