Oil will rebound, and Russian stocks is one of the best ways to play this rally IMO. Going long YNDX here based on its recent strength vs RSX. I think it's in the position to lead the market up when oil finally bottoms.
BNS has been tightly correlated with CAD since July 2014. Specifically, the relationship appears to be:
(daily % change in BNS) = 2x(daily % change in CADUSD)
CAD itself is correlated with oil.
I originally planned to buy CAD for an upcoming oil rally. But I ended up buying BNS instead. It pays a 5% dividend.
I think it might be instructive to take a look at the real price of oil by getting the inflationary effects of paper money out of the picture.
Sadly, tradingview has no data from before 1984, but a cursory look at the chart shows that oil is already at its lowest level since 1988.
Personally, I'm betting on some ...
This chart shows the price of Brent oil in RUB. Now, the thing is Russian government needs it around 3200 RUB per barrel to balance the budget. So, shorting Russian currency when UKOIL*USDRUB<3200 used to be a reliable trade since 2011.
Not so anymore...
This chart plots weekly performance of NASX vs NYA. In my last post back in July I noted that NASX/NYA was pushing into major long-term resistance. I expected a significant multi-week correction to proceed from there. However NASX did not breakdown in August, indicating that the real correction is potentially still ...
Going long in COP as a hedge against my long position in USDRUB. Just like Russian currency COP is strongly correlated with Brent. It just bounced off a long-term support. This could become a major bottom.
7% dividend yield is a nice bonus :)
My chart shows the price of Brent oil measured in Russian ruble. As you can see the devaluation of Russian currency proceeds in line with the falling price of crude. Oil and gas income accounts for over 50% of federal budget revenue in Russia. Therefore weaker ruble is necessary to offset the effect of lower oil ...
This chart shows the performance of NASX vs NYA (logarithmic scale). The resistance line goes back all the way to 2008. Every time NASX/NYA touched the resistance line in the past was followed by a multi-week correction (underperformance of NASX relative to NYA).
The action over the last three weeks looks like a ...
This chart shows the price of Brent oil as measured in RUB. Russian blend is actually called Urals, but I couldn't find data for Urals, so I'm using Brent as a proxy. It strongly correlates with Urals, but a couple of dollars more expensive.
Russian budget for 2015 assumes USDRUB=61 & Urals oil=$50, which ...
This chart shows weekly performance of QQQ vs IWM. The idea is the same as here https://www.tradingview.com/chart/QQQ/DMRXDtf3-Short-QQQ-Long-DIA/
Assuming orange band resistance holds:
1st target - 34EMA
2nd target -125 EMA
3rd target - rising channel support
This chart shows weekly performance of QQQ relative to DIA (logarithmic scale). The resistance line goes back all the way to 2007.
I'm short QQQ, long DIA. Assuming the resistance holds:
1st target - 8EMA
2nd target - 34EMA
3rd target - 125EMA