JohnKeverich

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Markets Allocation
67 % stocks 7 % forex 4 % indices 23 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
AAPL 15% | 9 UKOIL 10% | 6 QQQ 7% | 4 AMZN 5% | 3
JohnKeverich JohnKeverich YNDX/RSX, W, Long ,
YNDX/RSX: Playing upcoming oil rally with YNDX
19 0 0
YNDX/RSX, W Long
Playing upcoming oil rally with YNDX

Oil will rebound, and Russian stocks is one of the best ways to play this rally IMO. Going long YNDX here based on its recent strength vs RSX. I think it's in the position to lead the market up when oil finally bottoms.

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich BNS, D, Long ,
BNS: Long BNS based USDCAD correlation
28 0 0
BNS, D Long
Long BNS based USDCAD correlation

BNS has been tightly correlated with CAD since July 2014. Specifically, the relationship appears to be: (daily % change in BNS) = 2x(daily % change in CADUSD) CAD itself is correlated with oil. I originally planned to buy CAD for an upcoming oil rally. But I ended up buying BNS instead. It pays a 5% dividend.

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich AAPL, D, Long ,
AAPL: Playing for a short-term bounce
100 0 1
AAPL, D Long
Playing for a short-term bounce

AAPL closed well below its daily BB on high volume. There is a decent chance it bounces here. Went long at Friday close. Ready to add lower on Monday.

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich CL1!/XAUUSD, M, Long ,
CL1!/XAUUSD: Price of oil in terms of gold in the long-term buy zone
218 1 5
CL1!/XAUUSD, M Long
Price of oil in terms of gold in the long-term buy zone

I think it might be instructive to take a look at the real price of oil by getting the inflationary effects of paper money out of the picture. Sadly, tradingview has no data from before 1984, but a cursory look at the chart shows that oil is already at its lowest level since 1988. Personally, I'm betting on some kind of reversion to mean. Daily ...

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich UKOIL*USDRUB, M,
UKOIL*USDRUB: Russian rouble detached from Brent in December
119 0 0
UKOIL*USDRUB, M
Russian rouble detached from Brent in December

This chart shows the price of Brent oil in RUB. Now, the thing is Russian government needs it around 3200 RUB per barrel to balance the budget. So, shorting Russian currency when UKOIL*USDRUB<3200 used to be a reliable trade since 2011. Not so anymore...

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich CHK, W, Long ,
CHK: Long-term channel.
58 0 1
CHK, W Long
Long-term channel.

Bounced strongly off the channel support. Up 9% on Friday alone. Might be worth a shot

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich NASX/NYA, W, Short ,
NASX/NYA: NASX/NYA update
7 0 0
NASX/NYA, W Short
NASX/NYA update

This chart plots weekly performance of NASX vs NYA. In my last post back in July I noted that NASX/NYA was pushing into major long-term resistance. I expected a significant multi-week correction to proceed from there. However NASX did not breakdown in August, indicating that the real correction is potentially still ahead of us. From the trading perspective, it ...

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich UKOIL, D, Long ,
UKOIL: February fractal
23 0 0
UKOIL, D Long
February fractal

This corrective move up clearly resembles a pattern from 01.30-02.03.15 Expecting 125EMA to be hit eventually.

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich IBB, D, Short ,
IBB: IBB short set-up
5 0 0
IBB, D Short
IBB short set-up

IBB triggered H&S by breaking below 360 and hit 284 a few days later! I don't believe this correction is complete though. It's retesting neckline now. Going short here with a stop just over 360.

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich UKOIL, D,
UKOIL: Pivotal moment for oil - potential bottom
31 0 0
UKOIL, D
Pivotal moment for oil - potential bottom

Brent needs to turn down here and now, or else we may have a bottom in place. Close over 8EMA is initial confirmation of a bottom, and close over 51 cofirms new uptrend.

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich COP, M, Long ,
COP: Betting on rising oil prices with COP
25 3 0
COP, M Long
Betting on rising oil prices with COP

Going long in COP as a hedge against my long position in USDRUB. Just like Russian currency COP is strongly correlated with Brent. It just bounced off a long-term support. This could become a major bottom. 7% dividend yield is a nice bonus :)

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich UKOIL*USDRUB, D, Long ,
UKOIL*USDRUB: USDRUB: central bank intervention?
52 0 1
UKOIL*USDRUB, D Long
USDRUB: central bank intervention?

USDRUB appears to have temporarily decoupled from Brent - could be a sign of intervention. Long USDRUB at 70.90

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich UKOIL*USDRUB, D,
UKOIL*USDRUB: Russian ruble: stay short, stay safe
22 0 0
UKOIL*USDRUB, D
Russian ruble: stay short, stay safe

My chart shows the price of Brent oil measured in Russian ruble. As you can see the devaluation of Russian currency proceeds in line with the falling price of crude. Oil and gas income accounts for over 50% of federal budget revenue in Russia. Therefore weaker ruble is necessary to offset the effect of lower oil prices. That way pensions will get paid even when ...

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich IBB, D,
IBB: Biotechs on the verge of Abyss
7 0 0
IBB, D
Biotechs on the verge of Abyss

IBB needs to turn up here and now. Sustained break of 360 and the nearest support is 330

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich NASX/NYA, W,
NASX/NYA: The potential for a multi-week correction in NASDAQ Composite
24 2 1
NASX/NYA, W
The potential for a multi-week correction in NASDAQ Composite

This chart shows the performance of NASX vs NYA (logarithmic scale). The resistance line goes back all the way to 2008. Every time NASX/NYA touched the resistance line in the past was followed by a multi-week correction (underperformance of NASX relative to NYA). The action over the last three weeks looks like a classic Evening Star reversal pattern.

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich UKOIL*USDRUB, D,
UKOIL*USDRUB: The relationship between oil and Russian ruble
850 1 2
UKOIL*USDRUB, D
The relationship between oil and Russian ruble

This chart shows the price of Brent oil as measured in RUB. Russian blend is actually called Urals, but I couldn't find data for Urals, so I'm using Brent as a proxy. It strongly correlates with Urals, but a couple of dollars more expensive. Russian budget for 2015 assumes USDRUB=61 & Urals oil=$50, which translates into 3050 RUB per barrel of Urals and roughly ...

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich QQQ/IWM, W,
QQQ/IWM: Short QQQ, Long IWM
19 4 0
QQQ/IWM, W
Short QQQ, Long IWM

This chart shows weekly performance of QQQ vs IWM. The idea is the same as here https://www.tradingview.com/chart/QQQ/DMRXDtf3-Short-QQQ-Long-DIA/ Assuming orange band resistance holds: 1st target - 34EMA 2nd target -125 EMA 3rd target - rising channel support

JohnKeverich JohnKeverich QQQ/DIA, W,
QQQ/DIA: Short QQQ, Long DIA
7 0 0
QQQ/DIA, W
Short QQQ, Long DIA

This chart shows weekly performance of QQQ relative to DIA (logarithmic scale). The resistance line goes back all the way to 2007. I'm short QQQ, long DIA. Assuming the resistance holds: 1st target - 8EMA 2nd target - 34EMA 3rd target - 125EMA

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