Bitcoin historical volatility (HV) nearing 40
$BTC volatility this low has historically led to major price action between 30% to 60% movement in the following weeks
From current price:
30% move to the upside is $12,200
30% move to the downside is $6,500
Put your seatbelt on
ETH is at a major support area against BTC
It needs to hold here as the next major support is quite the drop
Look for a potential bounce but I'm not attracted to catching falling knives, which means if ETH continues to fall, I'd rather be in BTC
Long story short - the average pullback after death cross in the previous uptrend was 24.6% and lasted over 3 weeks until the golden cross happened (where the 50MA crosses above 200 MA)
We could see price pullback to $8000 to $8200 with a new uptrend starting in the middle of August if the price action is similar to the 2017 uptrend
Bitcoin is finally consolidating after weeks of blasting resistance areas
We're in a ranging pattern to cool off - here are the areas I'm watching for a break above or below to $9k or $6k
As of now, we're hanging in a condensing price formation that should lead to some volatility near the CME Bitcoin Futures expiration around May 31st
Bitcoin - % Return & Future Peak High
Each market cycles rate of return has been 20% or 1/5 of the previous cycle return from bottom to new peak high
With cycle bottom at $3148, this next market cycle could give 2300% returns based on historical data with a Bitcoin high at $78,500
$ALT Season in the making? - Just watch Bitcoin dominance
Bitcoin dominance dropped 10% to 14% during the monster altcoin runs in 2018
My strategy for buying altcoins is to watch the charts for BTC dominance % to pullback
An alt rally could push BTC % back down near 50%+/-
One possible scenario is Bitcoin continues to make its way up to the peak interest area at $6400+
Lots of historical volume at this level and would create peak fomo
This is where people who bought previously at $6k have the opportunity sell to fomo buyers before a retrace
After months of uptrend it could be healthy for a pullback -(red lines show...
The guppy is the most beautiful indicator in a traders toolbox. I enjoy watching as this collection of EMAs helps paint a clear picture of uptrends and downtrends.
Blue and green supper guppy means that there is a confirmed uptrend while red guppy shows a confirmed downtrend.
We haven't seen the guppy flip bullish aka confirmed uptrend since the alt-season of...
Zoom out - the 2019 bear market could be similar if this is accumulation.
Bitcoin quickly approaches the 50 Week Moving Average that held down Bitcoin back in 2015. While many call for a $6k retest, this MA along with prior horizontal resistance could hold down Bitcoin for the time being.
Will be interested in seeing if the 200 Week MA acts as support if...
Previous bear market held down Bitcoin during accumulation at the 50-Week MA.
As Bitcoin moves closer to the $5500-$5600 area resistance, we see that the 50 Week MA is very close by and could add pressure along with horizontal resistance to keep Bitcoin from pushing to $6k at this time.