Joy_

Joy_

We've had the panic, then rally, from Q1 lows... now we should resume the slow drop. Things might change if market internals pick up, which would suggest the Bull market mentality is back... but so far. no cigar.

Joy_ Updated 

Bear Market for US stocks started a year ago, (See post linked below "Was this the final hurrah?") 1st phase is over, where smart money is out. 2nd phase is when the public get involved because MSM start talking non-stop about the recession (falling earnings for overvalued companies) This will be phase 2. And it will be very volatile. More-so than what we've...

Joy_ Updated 

5% rally in a month. that's all i have to say. All details in all the other posts identical to this one. (Titled : counter trend rally or Snap back rally) See links below

Joy_ Updated 

So, this is for those who can handle the risk 10% in a month. Well worth a punt here. See prior instances of this setup for info. Rally into Labour day (US) before the next leg down is the hypothesis.

Joy_

So, we've had the relief rally from the March panic lows. "Market Internals" are now displaying everything other than strong, healthy bull market characteristics... (look 'em up)... This means a sustained rally from here is currently unlikely. First thing to be tested , is obviously the March lows, probably by June/July time. With the expectation that we drop...

Joy_

Just like after all storms, then comes the calm... A nice slow, laboured drift back to no mans land (by summer time, Northern Hemisphere) Same "behaviour" expected as last time I posted "an idea" with this same title back in March 2020.

Joy_

*** this idea was previously hidden by a moderator -*** The previous title made a joke about people who use this site for advertising their "FREE" channels. Anyway, the original post (less title is below) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Insider info straight from Mr P himself. He's supporting the QQQ's along with the...

Joy_

Selling has stalled out for now. (watch the volume) Could it bust lower? Sure. But now that everyone is talking about war and such.. it's probably not going to. And if you see trashy newspapers/tv/soc media suddenly talking about the markets falling.. it's definitely too late to sell and most likely a good time to get long, especially if you didn't use Monday's...

Joy_

Following on from the last post on here, (links below) RUT, broke the range I mentioned 2150/2350 indicating the bull still held. I said clues of how the RUT behaves at the range highs would be an indication of overall market strength We are now there. RUT broke highs- but HAS NOW FAILED to be convincing - (by closing back inside the range) Even if you don't...

Joy_ Updated 

Looking for new ATH's within a month. Expecting Powell to use very moderate language to give the Bulls one last hurrah.

Joy_

Since Nov 2020, the number of stocks trading on the NASDAQ exchange increased 16% from ~3500 to over +4000. When was the last time there was such an increase? Secondly, pay attention to the Price-volume action of Jan 1980. or June 1983

Joy_ Updated 

Monday 9th November saw similar "internal " market characteristics to 82 other instances since 1980. 90% (74) of them led to higher prices in 6months to 1 year. The remainder are strongly negative, including one instance on 11th August 1987. (look into Leadership, Breadth, Price volume metrics) (then basket the cases into Valuation bins) Looking for market to drop...

Joy_ Updated 

Stocks oversold here (on Internals' basis). At prior support too. Could tank but odds favour a rally into election day, and then 50dma (not shown) dictates 3400 ish

Joy_

If sell-off is done, we retest the highs. Worth a punt from here

Joy_ Updated 

SPX Bias short after massive volume the last few days. Range of 3125-3225 will dictate for the next couple of weeks but bias down for now. 3000 needs to be taken out for March lows to be in play

Joy_

The storm came immediately and now a possible drift before the next big move. Expecting ~3000 on SPX before the next solid move

Joy_

Part one of the bear is complete. Slow rally into summer, with the SPX reaching ~3200 about 8% from friday's close

Joy_ Updated 

The stock market is not healthy if you look under the bonnet. If this is the start of the bear, then ~2960 is the first target roughly 14% below 3330 on the SPX.