JulianVillamizar

JulianVillamizar

The dollar closed last week with gains, a move that left the door open for a technical rebound; the bullish momentum would be associated with international risk scenario and correction of oil . Oil moved away from USD50 amid China slowdown and the strong dollar, despite the market expects rates to remain stable after the weak jobs data, Brexit has led to the...

JulianVillamizar

WTI is in a key price level for technical analysts, in coming days could show a change of direction or short-term bullish euphoria. This is what investors should consider. For weeks there is evidence of a minor imbalance between supply and demand of oil, two weeks are completed with falls in US inventories. This means that the market correctly anticipated the...

JulianVillamizar

Last week the dollar broke its medium-term uptrend. With a further rise in rates from the Banco de la República, the intention to enable auction sales with a rise of 3% compared to the TRM average of 20 days and the recovery of oil, vendors will have control of the market during this week. The $ 3,380 is the new resistance level, so while below this level, the...

JulianVillamizar

After the production agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia, it is possible that the imbalance between supply and demand decreases and even set aside in coming months. Based on this statement and Fibonnaci retracemen of previous days rally, while the pet'roleo is over USD28 is likely to advance to USD38 .

JulianVillamizar

The inverse correlaion between oil and the dollar remains , therefore fell last week nearly 140 pesos. With falls on Thursday and Friday a pattern of bearish candles known as "Techo en Pinzas" was formed. This move leaves the 3,320 as a resistance . While the dollar does not close above 3,320 , there is a likelihood of a correction towards 3,120 or 3,060 ;...

JulianVillamizar

After bullish momentum yesterday and rupture of the USD29,80 resistance, oil has room for a rebound to the USD35 and USD38 leves. There is a buy signal in the RSI and will be soon at the MACD, the latter presents divergence with the price. These three indicators increase the likelihood of upward movement. The expectation of falling prices to USD20 has possibly...

JulianVillamizar

With a doji and near the day of thanksgiving candle, oil remains in indecision. Investors expect the weekly crude inventories variation to define a trend. After the fall of previous weeks , the price had a slight technical rebound as it leaves the new level of USD42.50 as resistance . The trend and bearish sentiment has not changed, but the upside breakout of...

JulianVillamizar

With today rise, WTI leaves a large white candle and the potential for a boost to USD48 and USD50. New support for the upward movement is located in the USD44.80, Breaking down this level it implies that the bullish move fails. The medium trend remains bullish after the rebound in the 61.8 % retracement of the previous rally. Support for this movement was the USD42,70.

JulianVillamizar

After breaking the USD44,20 the likelihood of falls to USD41.80 and USD39.70 it is the most likely scenario. But if the price breaks the USD44.20 upward, it could advance to USD47.50 and USD50 .

JulianVillamizar

After breaking the wedge upward , the objective of this figure is equivalent to the previous rally. Thus the WTI price can reach the resistance of USD54 . The new support of uptrend are USD48 and USD46 , this strategy would fail if the WTI drops below USD45,80 .

JulianVillamizar

After breaking the long term trend, AAPL managed to catch up and consolidate this rebound as a false breakout . Further, the stock bounced off the 50 % of the long term Fibonnaci retracement, so the long-term trend remain in force. Based on the false breakout and moving averages of 20 and 40 periods , the stock is likely to rise up to 116.90. Stop loss should be...

JulianVillamizar

The devaluation of other currencies against the dollar has made Chinese exports less competitive and affect the growth of this country. China faces its slowdown with interest rate cuts . This monetary policy , reduced export competitiveness and economic slowdown justify a future policy of devaluation of the yuan. Buy and hold USDCNY

JulianVillamizar

A less than estimated GDP growth for the EEUU economý and a core CPI under 2,1% reduces the probability of a sooner increase of the FED rate. Staility of rates means that the dollar can loose some strength giving room for an upside movement of commodity prices. Last friday's strong movement of WTI end on a candle that offsset the previous six days price fall...