Kirn

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Markets Allocation
12 % stocks 10 % cryptocurrency 2 % forex 76 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
TVC:USOIL 42% | 18 XAUUSD 11% | 5 SPX 9% | 4 FX:USOIL 7% | 3
Kirn Kirn SPX500, 1M, Long ,
SPX500: spx500 gap fill on monthly
103 0 2
SPX500, 1M Long
spx500 gap fill on monthly

The last two dips like this had a two month down gap followed by a monthly bar closing around the previous high. Looking for more or less of the same here. Decent support held at 200dma.

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 15, Short ,
USOIL: Bearish Cat Formation.
73 0 2
USOIL, 15 Short
Bearish Cat Formation.

Short.

Kirn Kirn XAUUSD, 1W, Long ,
XAUUSD: Long XAUUSD late stage economic cycle inflation - trade war 3700
173 2 0
XAUUSD, 1W Long
Long XAUUSD late stage economic cycle inflation - trade war 3700

The last time the US tried to have a trade war was back in 2002 where the dollar fell dramatically. Late stage economic cycles are characterized by rampant inflation of industrial inputs and also gold as a hedge against inflation. My target of around 3700 in the next few years seems insane. Yet, when compared to the last time this same political situation was ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 30, Short ,
USOIL: Another short scalp
122 0 2
USOIL, 30 Short
Another short scalp

Rather overbought on a short squeeze/breakout run from the previous few weeks of sideways. Pretty gnarly 4hourly candle that closed 50% below the high and a bearish engulfing on the 30min. Quickly sold off from 64. Could see a dollar to the downside of the daily pit close of 63.55 - around 50ma .5 fib retracement. At the extreme end of things I could see a ...

Kirn Kirn XAUUSD, 240, Short ,
XAUUSD: Waiting for long entry at 1300 and 1285. Target 1650.
133 0 1
XAUUSD, 240 Short
Waiting for long entry at 1300 and 1285. Target 1650.

Descending right triangle continuation pattern. Looking for .62 retrace. FOMC coming up

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60, Short ,
USOIL: End of contract short.
302 0 4
USOIL, 60 Short
End of contract short.

Theres a double tap on the upper trend-line and a fed meeting in a few days and the end of the cl contract month. Looking to re enter long possibly at the .62 fib retracement. Stop above trend break.

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 240, Long ,
USOIL: Long WTI to 65
158 0 2
USOIL, 240 Long
Long WTI to 65

It looks like a triple bottom. Oil tends to trade in $5.00 ranges so after the last support of 60, I assume 65. Sorry no advanced mumbo jumbo RSI pentagram neil gartman virgin sacrifice.

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60, Short ,
USOIL: Short WTI with monthly supports.
130 0 2
USOIL, 60 Short
Short WTI with monthly supports.

Low of the December monthly contract is the first white arrow/support line Low of the Novermber monthly contract is the second white arrow. EIA is likely quite bearish, wouldn't be surprised if after tapping that previous monthly low that it retests this 58.45 support area. Basically what this would look like is, new low created by EIA, retracement 1$ upwards, ...

Kirn Kirn XAUUSD, 240, Long ,
XAUUSD: A deciding point in XAU.USD
110 0 4
XAUUSD, 240 Long
A deciding point in XAU.USD

If the daily can close above the .318 retracement of this last bull cycle then it would be reasonable to assume it will test the upside again around 1367 and since the last high broke the previous cycle high, I assume this will break away from this few year long sideways range. However, if today cannot convincingly close above that level, 1300 is the next guess, ...

Kirn Kirn BTCUSD, 240, Short ,
BTCUSD: Short Bitcoin, target fib extension 1.618 at 2200.
200 0 1
BTCUSD, 240 Short
Short Bitcoin, target fib extension 1.618 at 2200.

This is the beginning of the phase where people should be afraid of holding bitcoin, even if they believe in the technology. Anything below 2200 could signal a total breakdown of the structure 1k easily, 400 possible, or less for the reason that follows. Of course mining difficulty could decrease, but it just became 11% harder and will not downgrade for over 2500 ...

Kirn Kirn XAUUSD, M, Long ,
XAUUSD: Wondering if there's a regression to the mean of gold/spx500 log
102 0 2
XAUUSD, M Long
Wondering if there's a regression to the mean of gold/spx500 log

I was trying to find out what sort of slope velocity gold had in relation to the s&p... did it follow with a lag, or trade inversely? There isn't a great relationship that I've found for determining if people will buy gold during dips, or when they will do it during that type of movement. I did see gold acting as a lagging asset following market value increases, ...

Kirn Kirn SPX500, 1D, Short ,
SPX500: Small s&p dip. target 2600
147 0 2
SPX500, 1D Short
Small s&p dip. target 2600

The distance of the last two significant dips taken from the previous high a week or two ago would measure out at 2600. Halfway there already. That would mean a 30% ish retrace from the start of the bull cycle that started on the last election.

Kirn Kirn EURUSD, W, Long ,
EURUSD: Eur.Usd long 1.4 target
143 0 7
EURUSD, W Long
Eur.Usd long 1.4 target

I believe the dollar will continue to fall, but will not fulfill the final fib extension trend at 1.43 and simply make a double top at 1.4. This rally in the Euro is in the short term due to speculation based on increasing US debt and geopolitical uncertainty created by Trump- perhaps even a cross continental superficial bias towards the latter. I believe in the ...

Kirn Kirn NI225, W, Short ,
NI225: Japanese Market Recession. Calling top.
103 0 3
NI225, W Short
Japanese Market Recession. Calling top.

The fib 1.618 extension happened jan 1. Japanese growrth has been a major issue for some time, partly due to their populations age distribution. This may be why USD.JPY has been holding up so well given the context of the dollar index in general. Funds will flee these markets and buy into US markets, thus sparking the return from EUR.USD 1.4 peak and so on. ...

Kirn Kirn XAGUSD, D, Long ,
XAGUSD: Long Silver, likely just a triple bottom target but IHS present.
118 0 1
XAGUSD, D Long
Long Silver, likely just a triple bottom target but IHS present.

Weird looking inverted head and shoulders implying a test of the previous high, if neckline is broken. The more likely scenario is the lower target determined by measuring the triple bottom created, if one does not look at the long wick on silver. That's if silver breaks up another few % above this resistance to confirm the measured move into the new trading ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60, Short ,
USOIL: Short oil for the week, target 63.18 due to assumed crude build.
117 0 1
USOIL, 60 Short
Short oil for the week, target 63.18 due to assumed crude build.

I typically look at 10:00 EST for weekly direction as that is when the genscape crude inventories estimate comes out. That point is the green arrow and the market took a tumble after that, so I assume there will be a large crude draw, seeing as genscape is much more reliable than API data. Looking at a slightly lower low to confirm bear move tomorrow, around ...

Kirn Kirn AMZN, D, Long ,
AMZN: Long AMZN to 1600, then short to 1k support.
282 0 3
AMZN, D Long
Long AMZN to 1600, then short to 1k support.

Just looking at another dumb Fibonacci extension that I see popping up everywhere.

Kirn Kirn SPX500, M, Long ,
SPX500: Sketches for my own use on the S&P to be continued. Top 3100.
104 0 1
SPX500, M Long
Sketches for my own use on the S&P to be continued. Top 3100.

I am working on finding the next retracement from the assumed 3100 top 1.618 target from creation of the S&P with a bottom in 2009.

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