Kirn

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Markets Allocation
14 % stocks 11 % cryptocurrency 3 % forex 71 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
USOIL 42% | 15 XAUUSD 8% | 3 SPX 8% | 3 BTCUSD 5% | 2
Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60, Short ,
USOIL: Short WTI with monthly supports.
120 0 1
USOIL, 60 Short
Short WTI with monthly supports.

Low of the December monthly contract is the first white arrow/support line Low of the Novermber monthly contract is the second white arrow. EIA is likely quite bearish, wouldn't be surprised if after tapping that previous monthly low that it retests this 58.45 support area. Basically what this would look like is, new low created by EIA, retracement 1$ upwards, ...

Kirn Kirn XAUUSD, 240, Long ,
XAUUSD: A deciding point in XAU.USD
101 0 3
XAUUSD, 240 Long
A deciding point in XAU.USD

If the daily can close above the .318 retracement of this last bull cycle then it would be reasonable to assume it will test the upside again around 1367 and since the last high broke the previous cycle high, I assume this will break away from this few year long sideways range. However, if today cannot convincingly close above that level, 1300 is the next guess, ...

Kirn Kirn BTCUSD, 240, Short ,
BTCUSD: Short Bitcoin, target fib extension 1.618 at 2200.
196 0 1
BTCUSD, 240 Short
Short Bitcoin, target fib extension 1.618 at 2200.

This is the beginning of the phase where people should be afraid of holding bitcoin, even if they believe in the technology. Anything below 2200 could signal a total breakdown of the structure 1k easily, 400 possible, or less for the reason that follows. Of course mining difficulty could decrease, but it just became 11% harder and will not downgrade for over 2500 ...

Kirn Kirn XAUUSD, M, Long ,
XAUUSD: Wondering if there's a regression to the mean of gold/spx500 log
96 0 2
XAUUSD, M Long
Wondering if there's a regression to the mean of gold/spx500 log

I was trying to find out what sort of slope velocity gold had in relation to the s&p... did it follow with a lag, or trade inversely? There isn't a great relationship that I've found for determining if people will buy gold during dips, or when they will do it during that type of movement. I did see gold acting as a lagging asset following market value increases, ...

Kirn Kirn SPX500, 1D, Short ,
SPX500: Small s&p dip. target 2600
135 0 1
SPX500, 1D Short
Small s&p dip. target 2600

The distance of the last two significant dips taken from the previous high a week or two ago would measure out at 2600. Halfway there already. That would mean a 30% ish retrace from the start of the bull cycle that started on the last election.

Kirn Kirn EURUSD, W, Long ,
EURUSD: Eur.Usd long 1.4 target
135 0 6
EURUSD, W Long
Eur.Usd long 1.4 target

I believe the dollar will continue to fall, but will not fulfill the final fib extension trend at 1.43 and simply make a double top at 1.4. This rally in the Euro is in the short term due to speculation based on increasing US debt and geopolitical uncertainty created by Trump- perhaps even a cross continental superficial bias towards the latter. I believe in the ...

Kirn Kirn NI225, W, Short ,
NI225: Japanese Market Recession. Calling top.
89 0 2
NI225, W Short
Japanese Market Recession. Calling top.

The fib 1.618 extension happened jan 1. Japanese growrth has been a major issue for some time, partly due to their populations age distribution. This may be why USD.JPY has been holding up so well given the context of the dollar index in general. Funds will flee these markets and buy into US markets, thus sparking the return from EUR.USD 1.4 peak and so on. ...

Kirn Kirn XAGUSD, D, Long ,
XAGUSD: Long Silver, likely just a triple bottom target but IHS present.
116 0 1
XAGUSD, D Long
Long Silver, likely just a triple bottom target but IHS present.

Weird looking inverted head and shoulders implying a test of the previous high, if neckline is broken. The more likely scenario is the lower target determined by measuring the triple bottom created, if one does not look at the long wick on silver. That's if silver breaks up another few % above this resistance to confirm the measured move into the new trading ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60, Short ,
USOIL: Short oil for the week, target 63.18 due to assumed crude build.
109 0 1
USOIL, 60 Short
Short oil for the week, target 63.18 due to assumed crude build.

I typically look at 10:00 EST for weekly direction as that is when the genscape crude inventories estimate comes out. That point is the green arrow and the market took a tumble after that, so I assume there will be a large crude draw, seeing as genscape is much more reliable than API data. Looking at a slightly lower low to confirm bear move tomorrow, around ...

Kirn Kirn AMZN, D, Long ,
AMZN: Long AMZN to 1600, then short to 1k support.
276 0 3
AMZN, D Long
Long AMZN to 1600, then short to 1k support.

Just looking at another dumb Fibonacci extension that I see popping up everywhere.

Kirn Kirn SPX500, M, Long ,
SPX500: Sketches for my own use on the S&P to be continued. Top 3100.
100 0 1
SPX500, M Long
Sketches for my own use on the S&P to be continued. Top 3100.

I am working on finding the next retracement from the assumed 3100 top 1.618 target from creation of the S&P with a bottom in 2009.

Kirn Kirn XAUUSD, W, Long ,
XAUUSD: Work in progress long chart 1470-1371-1650-1710-1570 price actio
76 0 0
XAUUSD, W Long
Work in progress long chart 1470-1371-1650-1710-1570 price actio

Probably dumb late night stuff.

Kirn Kirn USOIL, D,
USOIL: Waiting for $60.00 re-entry on WTI for Q4 push to $89.00
119 0 1
USOIL, D
Waiting for $60.00 re-entry on WTI for Q4 push to $89.00

Dollar index is still being murdered, but today's daily candle may be a sign that it will pause before FOMC. The dollar will continue to fall, and OPEC has stated that the oil market will be "rebalanced" by Q4 this year. The current Fibonacci extension of 1.618 (the general final target ratio) is $90, so while many consider $100 oil to be the norm, that may come ...

Kirn Kirn GDXJ, D, Long ,
GDXJ: Long GDXJ (JNUG) until 1.618 fib extension of past bull wave85.3
79 0 2
GDXJ, D Long
Long GDXJ (JNUG) until 1.618 fib extension of past bull wave85.3

Dollar crashing, Trump risk, more-so US debt may be downgraded + crypto failing expectations.

Kirn Kirn BTCUSD, 240, Short ,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin
188 1 1
BTCUSD, 240 Short
Bitcoin

okie.dokie

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60, Short ,
USOIL: Short through OPEC meeting. Save me Dennis Gartman
138 0 2
USOIL, 60 Short
Short through OPEC meeting. Save me Dennis Gartman

An actual clean head and shoulders on WTI... it looks like hedge fund money and its traders have gotten into this commodity after all. The $57.50 neckline was broken and later the pullback tested and held, which means that support became resistance. The measure of the initial target is $56.00 which another large support at $56.60, but I haven't marked that. ...

Kirn Kirn ETHUSD, D, Short ,
ETHUSD: Conspiracy theory Etherium short, data being deleted- target 160
279 3 7
ETHUSD, D Short
Conspiracy theory Etherium short, data being deleted- target 160

As you can see, all data was removed from Etherium history starting from one month ago. At this rate who knows where it will go. I'm short because you don't need to buy back a stock for somebody to cover your short position if data bars aren't available for it. I say good day to you sir.

Kirn Kirn AMD, W, Long ,
AMD: Long AMD measured move
289 0 3
AMD, W Long
Long AMD measured move

AMD was trading between pennies and $10.00 a share and has recently broken into the 10+ range on an increase in volume around double what is normal, which is convincing. A breakthrough from one trading range into the next implies a test of the top of the new range, or measured more, at 20. There was a rejection at the halfway mark in the range at $15.00 too, ...

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