Kirn

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Joined
Markets Allocation
18 % stocks 9 % cryptocurrency 73 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
USOIL 72% | 8 BTCUSD 9% | 1 SPY 9% | 1 AMZN 9% | 1
Kirn Kirn USOIL, D, Short ,
USOIL: Continued Short Usoil
133 0 2
USOIL, D Short
Continued Short Usoil

I see a couple ways of looking at this. We now have a lower high 54vs 54.38 and a lower low 52.3 vs 52.55. I think that finally means the bear trend is being confirmed for more people. I normally look at simple retraces and price targets. Those imply 50% of the last move targeting 49, which was my original plan. I am also starting to look at other patterns like ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 15, Long ,
USOIL: Oil Day Long
97 0 4
USOIL, 15 Long
Oil Day Long

I circled the two gap ups we had recently in yellow. The second one is harder to see, but it originally looked like an exhaustion gap. However, we're in a weird gray zone right now at 53, but I think if an hour candle closes above $53.3 then there will be a quick move to 44, before being quickly rejected. I think this would have to happen tomorrow before API ...

Kirn Kirn BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: Long BTCUSD
309 0 3
BTCUSD, D Long
Long BTCUSD

1200 was an obvious double top. If you use cup/handle patterns then a 30% retrace max (for a handle) is 880. If you use simple retraces then a 50% retrace from the last short term move from 580-1180 is 880. Bitcoin bounced off of both of 880. Could test 1200 again. Given that people in China aren't allowed to buy gold anymore due to their government stemming ...

Kirn Kirn SPY, D,
SPY: Brief long into Short.
58 0 3
SPY, D
Brief long into Short.

There's a lot of enthusiasm in the market right now. I think that could cause a pop up out of this cyan channel. However, there's still a lot of uncertainty within the new administration and weakness in the economy. If everything remains stable, I would expect and breakout to be faded back to the red line. Basically, I'm shedding longs around 230 if possible and ...

Kirn Kirn AMZN, D, Long ,
AMZN: Long AMZN
55 0 2
AMZN, D Long
Long AMZN

The majority of hedge funds had 70% of their non-realized profit in their top 3-4 holdings before the election. What I thought could happen is that they would take profit causing a dip in the S&P as a whole, but with a republican government fostering growth in the repressed industrial sectors like shale and manufacturing I think we will just see a shift from the ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, D, Short ,
USOIL: Short through 55 ceiling.
97 0 2
USOIL, D Short
Short through 55 ceiling.

Before the OPEC cut my original price target was 55 and I had added from 46.3 to 43.3. There were a number of huge multi billion dollar buy ins one day at close around 46.3 and the subsequent floor was around 43 so if we assume that "big money" people kept risk/profit at 3/1 (industry standard)... the final target must have been 55. I don't know if they were ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60, Long ,
USOIL: End of month long
68 1 0
USOIL, 60 Long
End of month long

Black line shows what I think will happen. Oil will move up until end of buying new contracts this month, then settle lower as people take profits throughout. The same thing happened last month with profit taking adding 3$ to price of oil. The other line is the extreme of the same idea, the higher up it goes, the more profit taking will happen. Either way, don't ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60,
USOIL: Head and Shoulders
179 0 3
USOIL, 60
Head and Shoulders

I know Vitol chief said that opec cuts aren't enough, so did Goldman. Aka, they're trapped short. I assume that's why we didn't break up much today based on DXY going down and a 300k cushings draw on genscape. This is a hypothetical H+S. I'm not in long, but I will hope to short at this long term down trend line. 47.58

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60, Short ,
USOIL: Maybe last bull before 43
170 1 3
USOIL, 60 Short
Maybe last bull before 43

I was rather surprised that the price rallied today on the announcement that there would be no decision in Algiers. It could be that the price was already factored into where we were trading this morning. The red lines indicate what I think will happen if that is the case, assuming a bull EIA (api/genscape draws). Otherwise, people are still holding their ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60,
USOIL: Short, then long.
132 0 2
USOIL, 60
Short, then long.

The numbers today on EIA didn't add up properly, there is some sentiment that the 6million draw should have been 2million. I see a cup/handle formation. Looking to exit short from 45.45 at 44.7 (at the lowest) as a cup handle and also as people exit positions in anticipation of OPEC.

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 240, Long ,
USOIL: Fundamental WTI Long
201 1 4
USOIL, 240 Long
Fundamental WTI Long

Wti bounced off of the price floor that is the highs of the first day that OPEC announced possible freezes. Furthermore, Libyan oil exports were disrupted by military conflicts. There was also a huge supply disruption in east coast gasoline, so I expect a long trend next week. Also, Managed funds closed 22% of their shorts last week, we could see them waiting for ...

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