Kirn

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Short WTI
Markets Allocation
17 % stocks 6 % cryptocurrency 78 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
USOIL 72% | 13 BTCUSD 5% | 1 AMD 5% | 1 AMZN 5% | 1
Kirn Kirn AMD, W, Long ,
AMD: Long AMD measured move
111 0 3
AMD, W Long
Long AMD measured move

AMD was trading between pennies and $10.00 a share and has recently broken into the 10+ range on an increase in volume around double what is normal, which is convincing. A breakthrough from one trading range into the next implies a test of the top of the new range, or measured more, at 20. There was a rejection at the halfway mark in the range at $15.00 too, ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 240, Long ,
USOIL: Possible medium-long term Elliot wave.
36 0 0
USOIL, 240 Long
Possible medium-long term Elliot wave.

Thought it was weird when I was doing the math on Elliot wave ratios for this that some of the points matched up with trend lines set now.

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 240, Long ,
USOIL: Oil breakaways after EIA
88 0 2
USOIL, 240 Long
Oil breakaways after EIA

There are three possibilities for the Eia report tomorrow: 1. There is the expected 6million draws in both crude and distillates respectively, without a large crude build, I would expect testing 54, just shy of the high for the year, maybe 53.74. 2. Most likely scenario: there are the draws mentioned above, but a surprise crude build of 12million estimated on ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, D,
USOIL: Oil near term short to 44.00, long term long to 60.00.
131 0 8
USOIL, D
Oil near term short to 44.00, long term long to 60.00.

I read a bunch of articles stating that oil was going to hit $44.00 a few weeks ago, before the Irma/refiner rally this week. I wonder if following news articles in order would be an effective way to trade. For example, when $49.00 was broken upwards this week, I saw all over twitter that $60.00 was finally in range. However, that didn't really make sense because ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, D, Short ,
USOIL: Vague idea of what the candles on the next few days could be.
71 0 5
USOIL, D Short
Vague idea of what the candles on the next few days could be.

Just continuing the short idea, looking for re-entry sometime tomorrow- higher than 47.

Kirn Kirn SPX500, D, Short ,
SPX500: spx futures short
134 0 7
SPX500, D Short
spx futures short

Why? for bragging rights

Kirn Kirn USOIL, D, Short ,
USOIL: Usoil short idea.
216 0 6
USOIL, D Short
Usoil short idea.

There was a very bullish inventory report that did not break $49.00, nor was it able to stay above too convincingly today (Thursday). This idea is premature because there is no candle to imply a downtrend, so it would be smart to keep a small lot size until there is a red candle below $49.00.

Kirn Kirn USOIL, D, Short ,
USOIL: Continued Short Usoil
165 0 2
USOIL, D Short
Continued Short Usoil

I see a couple ways of looking at this. We now have a lower high 54vs 54.38 and a lower low 52.3 vs 52.55. I think that finally means the bear trend is being confirmed for more people. I normally look at simple retraces and price targets. Those imply 50% of the last move targeting 49, which was my original plan. I am also starting to look at other patterns like ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 15, Long ,
USOIL: Oil Day Long
104 0 4
USOIL, 15 Long
Oil Day Long

I circled the two gap ups we had recently in yellow. The second one is harder to see, but it originally looked like an exhaustion gap. However, we're in a weird gray zone right now at 53, but I think if an hour candle closes above $53.3 then there will be a quick move to 44, before being quickly rejected. I think this would have to happen tomorrow before API ...

Kirn Kirn BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: Long BTCUSD
315 0 3
BTCUSD, D Long
Long BTCUSD

1200 was an obvious double top. If you use cup/handle patterns then a 30% retrace max (for a handle) is 880. If you use simple retraces then a 50% retrace from the last short term move from 580-1180 is 880. Bitcoin bounced off of both of 880. Could test 1200 again. Given that people in China aren't allowed to buy gold anymore due to their government stemming ...

Kirn Kirn SPY, D,
SPY: Brief long into Short.
58 0 3
SPY, D
Brief long into Short.

There's a lot of enthusiasm in the market right now. I think that could cause a pop up out of this cyan channel. However, there's still a lot of uncertainty within the new administration and weakness in the economy. If everything remains stable, I would expect and breakout to be faded back to the red line. Basically, I'm shedding longs around 230 if possible and ...

Kirn Kirn AMZN, D, Long ,
AMZN: Long AMZN
57 0 2
AMZN, D Long
Long AMZN

The majority of hedge funds had 70% of their non-realized profit in their top 3-4 holdings before the election. What I thought could happen is that they would take profit causing a dip in the S&P as a whole, but with a republican government fostering growth in the repressed industrial sectors like shale and manufacturing I think we will just see a shift from the ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, D, Short ,
USOIL: Short through 55 ceiling.
100 0 2
USOIL, D Short
Short through 55 ceiling.

Before the OPEC cut my original price target was 55 and I had added from 46.3 to 43.3. There were a number of huge multi billion dollar buy ins one day at close around 46.3 and the subsequent floor was around 43 so if we assume that "big money" people kept risk/profit at 3/1 (industry standard)... the final target must have been 55. I don't know if they were ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60, Long ,
USOIL: End of month long
71 1 0
USOIL, 60 Long
End of month long

Black line shows what I think will happen. Oil will move up until end of buying new contracts this month, then settle lower as people take profits throughout. The same thing happened last month with profit taking adding 3$ to price of oil. The other line is the extreme of the same idea, the higher up it goes, the more profit taking will happen. Either way, don't ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60,
USOIL: Head and Shoulders
182 0 3
USOIL, 60
Head and Shoulders

I know Vitol chief said that opec cuts aren't enough, so did Goldman. Aka, they're trapped short. I assume that's why we didn't break up much today based on DXY going down and a 300k cushings draw on genscape. This is a hypothetical H+S. I'm not in long, but I will hope to short at this long term down trend line. 47.58

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60, Short ,
USOIL: Maybe last bull before 43
175 1 3
USOIL, 60 Short
Maybe last bull before 43

I was rather surprised that the price rallied today on the announcement that there would be no decision in Algiers. It could be that the price was already factored into where we were trading this morning. The red lines indicate what I think will happen if that is the case, assuming a bull EIA (api/genscape draws). Otherwise, people are still holding their ...

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 60,
USOIL: Short, then long.
135 0 2
USOIL, 60
Short, then long.

The numbers today on EIA didn't add up properly, there is some sentiment that the 6million draw should have been 2million. I see a cup/handle formation. Looking to exit short from 45.45 at 44.7 (at the lowest) as a cup handle and also as people exit positions in anticipation of OPEC.

Kirn Kirn USOIL, 240, Long ,
USOIL: Fundamental WTI Long
203 1 4
USOIL, 240 Long
Fundamental WTI Long

Wti bounced off of the price floor that is the highs of the first day that OPEC announced possible freezes. Furthermore, Libyan oil exports were disrupted by military conflicts. There was also a huge supply disruption in east coast gasoline, so I expect a long trend next week. Also, Managed funds closed 22% of their shorts last week, we could see them waiting for ...

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