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The Canadian economy is on a shaky foundation. And finally the Canadian banks look a bit wobbly.
It's time for the dollar to flex its muscles over the weak suburb of China that is Australia.
Modi's demonetization effort has bit the Indian economy quite hard. Perhaps there is a case to be made from a long term perspective that the banking sector is a buy after the recent sell off. Given the technicals and on going chaos, I'm going to wait and see if a better buying opportunity emerges. Possible targets are the parole black lines.
I spy an inverse H&S pattern. Bullish on Europe. Technicals look good. Check out my blog for more information. https://klendathucapitalist.com/2016/12/13/another-head-fake-why-the-euro-may-go-higher/
I believe inflation is about to rip through the EU and push yields higher, breathing new life into the banking sector. For more information please read: https://klendathucapitalist.com/2016/12/24/predictions-for-2017-shit-escalates/
Bearish momentum divergence. The rise of long term yields on the Fed meeting was comical and offered a great opportunity to get long US bonds at least for a short term trade.
Yield curve is flattening with each rate hike as the short term floor is hiked higher. Not a stable environment for better loan growth. These are the leaders, do people really expect a hand off back to FANG?
I've never seen such a coiled spring in all my life. Trading in a 4+ year channel, on top of a triple symmetrical triangle on shrinking time horizions and now a 4 week channel as well. I mean I do not know what else to say. This thing is going to blow like mount saint hellen and to which direction do not know.
The dollar is likely to hit a short term peak as expectations of THREE rate hikes slowly melt away. US treasuries are due for a significant rally. Have a good day folks this just looks too pretty.
I believe now is the appropriate time to begin hedging for huge Black swan style events. This near vertical run in the KRE banking index is now above the 07 highs. It tried to break above the +8 year long channel but failed. I expect a much lower retest. At the very least, I believe low delta long duration put options on this ETF to be a very cheap trap that ...
Gold appears to be making a short term bottom on the 4 hour chart. I'm looking to buy some miners for leverage here.
Slowly scaling into financials. I admit I may be booking myself into the spa for a "face-lift" but the risk reward seems skewed in my favor to take a stab here.
Taiwan's fate is intertwined with China's. China is tightening liquidity in the country to try and temper inflation. This should reverberate through the rest of the world over the next month or so. Taiwan looks technical week on a daily and monthly basis.
Interesting momentum on EUR/USD. See the inverse of this pattern in the DXY. Could be in for a bit of rally in the Euro to catch the dollar bulls offsides.
I may regret this, but damn does this look pig look ugly. There's a lot of Trump brand lipstick on it don't get me wrong, but this rally is just too far for me not to take a stab.
Are people still bullish? I'm confused...
We are about to transition from a risk-ON inflationary environment to a risk-OFF inflationary environment. That means bond yields might fall even though inflation is rising. The US has been a huge beneficiary of the risk-ON move and as a result should see outflows. That means lower equities, and a weaker dollar. Given a falling dollar, rising inflation, and ...
They cheap over 70% of the time. Libya has just announced to add 300k barrels per day of output. I'm hedging this position with a consumer discretionary company GCO short. If oil rises or stays flat on a YoY basis oil will be 40-60% higher. The consumer will thus be hammered and my short should pay off. If oil falls, the consumer looks weak regardless. Higher ...