Having bounced back from their week-end plunge, the Indexes will undoubtedly swing downwards again. The Support Line of the 2016/ 2017 Uptrend will likely cause another upswing, before the indexes settle into a downtrend that will break through that Support Line.
The current downtrend could continue for the month of February, with a possible revival in March/ April. If no revival in March, the downtrend is underway. However, an upswing in March may indicate a continuance of the uptrend until another challenge c. May.
At this stage, it would be premature to expect a trend reversal. However, I anticipate a mild correction to offset the excessive exuberance of January's advance. Then, we should watch to see if shares continue their upward course, or commence a downtrend in anticipation of coming interest rate hikes.
The Euro is approaching the top of its current uptrend against the Dollar. The turning point will come when the market begins to anticipate an increase in American interest rates, while the Euro zone holds rates down.
If the markets move in seven year cycles, then there are two ways of looking at the present manifestation.
First, the Bubble of 2014 was not sufficiently burst, and a collapse is imminent.
Second, there was a sufficient correction in 2014, and we will continue in a Bull Market until 2021.
It is likely that world-wide policies of Quantitative Easing and Low...
February 2017, I made a premature prediction of a tumble in share prices (Line A). It looks like the tumble is about to happen at last (Line B) . We are probably seeing the beginning of a Bear Market to take us into 2018.
Motor Cars are obsolescent technology. They promised transport to any destination at any time of day or night. The present reality is gridlock, destinations inacessible, unsustainable road building, air pollution. E-cars are not the answer, but a new transport technology of capsules travelling in tubes, described at krunchiescab.blogspot.ie The Motor...
With a P/E that is still over 21, even though it may rally from its present low, it looks inevitable that CRH, like American shares in general, will continue to fall for a considerable time. A substantial rise in earnings is necessary to maintain current price levels. European shares trade at a P/E of around 14 and American shares must correct to similar levels. I...
Bouncing off Resistance Line R today seems to indicate a downswing. I guess we will see a movement somewhat along the track described by the green arrow. Looking back next month, we will say that the downtrend began on the 1st of March.
Pulling out of its recent down-swing, we watch to see if the index will be constrained by our speculative Resistance Line (purple), or if it will crash through this line to resume the up-trend. The up-trend has already proceeded beyond reason, and I won't be taking a long position. Should it bounce off the purple line, however, I am ready to resume a short.