Kumowizard

Kumowizard

First pls let me inform all of you who follow me, that from today I will be on holiday until 13rd March, so I will publish only few times maybe until I am back. Ref.: In my previous post I was too optimistic too early, with the idea of taking small long positions. I thought the Daily Slow Stoch upcross would mean a sideaway move followed by a breakout...

Kumowizard

It was sooo close.... but as I called your attention ytday, we still have to be cautious, as only a real break below the support could have given a valid sell signal. The px action within a day was good for observing a few things: 1. now we see the bulls are very desperate to buy at any px. Of course, as they know as well, that in case 1840 and maybe later the...

Kumowizard

I don't see any good risk reward trade here in EURUSD. Charts are really mixed, with lot of questions. It is basically trading in a range, I can not even say confidently it is building a top, or bottoms. Daily chart indicators mixed. On 4 Hrs, the ADX is too low, Slow Stoch turning up right now, but in a non trending environment this upturn doesn't really mean...

Kumowizard

This move was quicker than I expected. I thought it would reach my initial px tgt 4,2220 by Wednesday. The breakout and further direction is clear, it can either fly more or pull back. Since I will be on holiday from 5th till 13rd, I rather close this long. Those who still like to play it can keep 1/3 of the long position opened in 4,1600 - 4,1700...

Kumowizard

Is USA far enough from Ukrain and Europe to ignore the move in European equities so much today? Let's see how px action developes today after US mkt open. The last bar was a denial and refused to break below 100 WMA and the trend. Slow Stoch is a bit low as well, so we may see some pop up in opening hours, but DMI turned bearish. Something is cooking here. Watch...

Kumowizard

I think in a bearish move DJIA is even more likely to outperform the broad SP500 indx. If you don't like the idea to hold a long DJIA vs short SP500 spread, at least this spread chart gives some indication which indx is more vulnerable now. That is the SP500, so if you look to short stg in a possible coming breakdown, the risk-reward might be better on this.

Kumowizard

Daily chart: MACD negative divergence, and likely a bearish cross soon, Slow Stoch is bearish, DMI gave sell signal. Will it be a double top pattern? Supports at 3046-3065 4 Hrs chart: Inner trend break, DMI sell signal, Tenkan/Kijun weak bearish cross above the cloud, Future cloud is close to a bearish cross, Price testing 100 WMA. However actual Kumo...

Kumowizard

Gold had a nice bullish run this year. From these levels I expect consolidation and some correction based on the followings. Daily: Slow Stoch turns down, MACD is about to cross down (not yet valid) / 4 Hrs: Weak Tenkan/Kijun bearish cross (happened above the cloud), Price is entering the cloud, Chikou span is coming below the price, Future Kumo started to...

Kumowizard

EURHUF is consolidating, though the consolidation range is very wide: 308,15 - 314. I have never ever done this kind of price pattern projection before, but this time I find it interesting, with some "if" to add. Upside with "IF"s: If Daily Ichimoku setup still favours long (still good chance in all parameters), if the inner trendchannel bottom and key...

Kumowizard

"It's overbought!", "Too optimistic!", "Stocks valuation is insane", etc. Is it? I don't know. But should we care at all until px is going higher? I feel as well a great temptation to short, but I don't pull the trigger, just because it "feels like toppish!". Yes there are clearly signs mkt is overbought. However trading is (or should be) betting with the...

Kumowizard

.... but I just don't like it. The main problem is I don't know what is really that I don't like. Maybe the daily divergence? Maybe the momentum that is loosing a bit on 4 Hrs? Maybe the VIX which is clearly not dropping? Maybe it looks a bit overbought? I would rather stay out of it, can not really recommend re-open longs (which I recommended to close earlier in...

Kumowizard

It is very hard to give any high probability prediction here, still looks like consolidation within a tightenning triangle on 4 Hrs chart. Bulls need a decisive break above 3160 to keep the rally alive. If 3120 breaks, then we will see a bit deeper correction, but since Kumo is very thick, the same px action can occur like in case of EURUSD recently. So it can be...

Kumowizard

It looks like EURPLN slowly building a bottom. 4 Hrs chart has established a small rising trend channel. Px action suggests, that from time to time some strategic buyers step into the mkt. Chart look supportive for long position, so it might be a buy on any dips, to accumulate longs. Size up with a break above 4,1700. Stops to/below 4,1400 - 4,1450 area. I have a...

Kumowizard

4 Hrs chart clearly tells us Bullish momentum is lost, WTI started to consolidate. Based on daily chart there is good chance we might see a corrective move to 99,30 support area. It worths to watch. In case px breaks below 101,20, the move can be very quick. For now I recommend TP on longs, and buy May 99,50/95,00 Put spread as initial bearish bet. Outright short...

Kumowizard

Some friends asked me yesterday why did EURUSD moves so much higher from the Lows of sub 1,3650? What was the reason behind this move? My answer is simple, and since I do not care much about fundamentals when observing charts and price action (fundamentals just confused me too many times and too early), the answer is pure technical: the Kumo (Cloud) was too thick...

Kumowizard

Following Ukraine story line, European indexes seem to break important supports today. US mkts will open soon. Let's see how SP500 will hold this critical zone. For the last few days I've been calling attention to close long positions. Now I call attention to start watching for shorts in this descending triangle area. I don't think US mkts can ignore the risk that...

Kumowizard

Two daily reversal candle, followed by todays px action. Daily MACD turning down slowly, Slow Stoch back below 80. 4 Hrs trend breaks just now, DMI close to a bearish cross. Bund is flying, EURCHF down. Equities are getting close to a major correction again. Maybe it is time to put on some initial shorts, or buy put options. We are still far from a major selloff,...

Kumowizard

Ref to my previous post: USDCHF is becoming more and more bullish as well, but I think due to selling on EURCHF, this pair will move a bit slower than EURUSD or other USD crosses. Anyway, without further comments, the charts tell us to buy!