Lazy_Investing

Lazy_Investing

Stock indexes and crypto markets can expect a slightly down but somewhat quiet trading day today due to options expiration. The maximum pain on the SPY is $388, recommend fading any bounce today into the close on stocks and BTC. There will likely be a lot of volatility next week, I expect a fake rally then a strong sell-off.

Lazy_Investing

The events over the last week have shaken the crypto world to the core. With good reason there has been fear and panic. Traders and investors were beginning to resemble a Knives Out style murder mystery, not knowing who to trust and who is about to stab them in the back. Now that FTX has finally declared Chapter 11, the next question is, what now? The biggest...

Lazy_Investing

As financial common sense slowly returns to the British government, so too will stability to the pound. While the UK markets have a long way to go to restore credibility and trust, traders are beginning to return the pound. The FOMC announcement today will move the markets and trying to predict the capricious nature of the Fed is impossible, but the technicals...

Lazy_Investing

After reaching a high of over $41 in 2021, Lithium Americas has languished since, spending much of its time in the $20’s range. This is not surprising, since LAC does not make any money and carries over $230 million in liabilities. However, I believe that LAC share price has the potential to make an exponential run over the next 5 years. The bearish case. Before...

Lazy_Investing

Over the last week, we can see evidence of institutional buying, however, the downtrend is not broken. What the buying means: 1) Institutions believe we are closer to the end than the beginning. 2) The 3600 region is a level where they feel some stocks are on a discount. It is not easy to move into large positions, so fund managers saw this as a long-term...

Lazy_Investing

After a nice solid bounce over the last week, the market is beginning to pull back. Why is this happening and what can we expect next? Previously I had posted that the 3850-3950 region was a key area of support. Once that level was broken, this region is now a key area of overhead resistance. Here are two scenarios on how this might play out. 1) The most likely...

Lazy_Investing

If we perform a fib retracement from the bottom of the 2009 crash to the 4800 top and the bottom of the 2020 crash to the 4800 top. Some of the retracements line up. We have already seen it bounce off the first alignment from just above the 3800 level. The bottom seems to be pointing to around 3200. It probably won't go there right away, as a slight bounce is...

Lazy_Investing

The S&P 500 hit the mid 3850 region as we have been expecting and we saw a bounce from that level. Here's the kicker, there seems to be more downside to come. At a market bottom, price action is panicked get out at all cost selling. While the selling last week was extremely broad across the market, and a few stocks got hammered significantly, such as COIN, the...

Lazy_Investing

As conditions worsen in the markets and a soft landing seems less likely, the 3200 range is looking more and more likely as a final end to the sell-off. This would put the correction at 33% which is not unusual for a bear market.

Lazy_Investing

The VT which tracks global indexes is showing clear signs that the global market is rolling over to the downside. The end of this decline is around the $79-83 price range. With geopolitical and inflation concerns, we could reach this buy zone quickly. At that point, there will be a lot of stocks at a great discount.

Lazy_Investing

The market touched the bottom of the down channel yesterday and turned around. From here the market will likely bounce, however, the gap above 4k was not closed so expect this to get filled after this countertrend bounce. The weaker the market, the more likely we will see 3600 area before this is over. Short-term = Expect a countertrend bounce to around the 4400...

Lazy_Investing

I expect the gap around the 4000 level to be filled by mid-May taking it to the bottom of the channel. This isn't likely the bottom, but it will probably be the start of a short-term rally.

Lazy_Investing

The bear market rally has ended and now the index is at a crossroads. scenario 1) the market forms a new base over the summer then rallies to new highs. 2) We retest the lows and head to the 3800 region which is an unresolved magnet. The macro picture is horrible, but as was famously said, the markets stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Trade...

Lazy_Investing

BTC has broken above resistance ($45.8k - $46k). It looks like it may now test that region as a support. A rejection of that price level signals a move up to $53k area. A close below signals a move down to at least $41k possibly $37k. Keep you positions small on short term BTC trades and the stops wide enough for volatility.

Lazy_Investing

I was stopped out of a short yesterday after a vicious countertrend rally. Volume is declining so we can expect the market to pullback. If we see a strong decline this week back into the channel that seems to be developing, I will open another short. If we see strong close on above average volume from here, the bearish case is weakened and we may test the highs....

Lazy_Investing

Concerns about Cardano being a failed project seem to be over as ADA has made a massive move in the last few days. There is overhead resistance at around 1.19 area. If ADA pulls back from there, an ideal place to add to your position is 1.04. Stop is below 0.80.

Lazy_Investing Updated 

After the news of the 25bp rise from the Fed today, the market had a strong rally and broke above its downside channel. Tomorrow is a pivotal day. If we see follow through, this rally will continue to the 4500 region. But if tomorrow the SPX breaks back into the channel to the downside, it will likely continue to the bottom of the channel. Trade accordingly.

Lazy_Investing

Every time the S&P 500 rallies, volume indicates institutions are selling into this rally. The fundamentals continue to decline with a recession clearly on the table.