HEADER - It's 1840.55 as I type this and 12:03 PM on the east coast. Gold really needs a strong close to keep this realistic. Final draft because gold is running out of time to make a new May high. I'm running out to time to prove this process worthwhile to some important people, and they don't seem to be too interested. Sigh... May 25th is FOMC minutes, May...
HEADER - Is the gold bull still alive? Will faith be restored to shaken believers?
SUMMARY - As stated in 21 A-B-C, I hedged for this scenario. Those hedges are now full blown longs. Despite odds of it going to zero with NO VOLUME INDICATORS showing it remotely possible, I held on to this scenario for so long because the foundation of my theory on price...
HEADER - It should be much closer to this vs. 21B.
SUMMARY - Again, barring a very, very, very, very late miracle of 20H DRAFT 3 playing out, this is how gold goes down. Maybe for A VERY LONG TIME.
DETAILS - Links for 20H, 21A, and 21B are below. I have a small hedge that pays for all my puts if 20H decides to play. Besides that, I am all the way in short...
HEADER - No more time. No way out. The only way is down.
SUMMARY - Barring a miracle, this is going to happen. After 1760, 1720 will be next likely by 5/23, almost definitely by 5/27. Odds of 1700 are real for next week.
DETAILS - This is continuation of 21A. Link is below. That 5 hours to stop bears gave us 1820, which actually took 7 hours. The...
HEADER - Bulls have literally hours left to stop this move. Five hours max.
SUMMARY - Clock is almost out.
DETAILS - The 3x3 charts show this move is next. The only way to stop it is $40 spike up in 12 hours. The implications of this move for the rest of 2022 can not be overstated.
HEADER - This is second draft of 20H.
SUMMARY - We don't have a bottom yet. The clock on this move running out. This is the only version of this move left that fits the curves.
DETAILS - See 20H link below for background
HEADER - I have much, much more conviction now.
SUMMARY - I've covered the put hedges (paired of a straddle yesterday) this morning. 55% of trade funds in with 45% left for tomorrow.
IRL RATIO/BAR - 3/4, 45-min bar, zoom in at 11-min, 22-min and zoom out at 90-min, 3H, 6H, 12H, D, 2D, 4D, 8D.
DIRECTIONS - Upload IRL from my scripts page. You have to click my...
HEADER - I have enough conviction in May rally to take first entry now.
SUMMARY - I have enough evidence that 20E IS TOO SLOW.
DETAILS - The 80 hour set of curves have shifted into rally position. I have conviction that THE ENTRY FOR THIS RALLY IS NEXT 55 HOURS. That is all of Tuesday, all of Wednesday, and Thursday by 8 AM ET.
HEADER - This should be better than your average weather forecast.
SUMMARY - This is culmination of everything since series 16.
DETAILS - Links to 20 A-B-C-D are below, as are everything else since 17G. Unless my expectations for new all time high by 5/27 changes, I will post nothing else until then because my entire focus will be on execution. Usually, I...
HEADER - This is detailing for 20C.
SUMMARY - This is what I said I would post in 20C.
DETAILS - If I consider next 80 hours - AND ONLY NEXT 80 HOURS - of regressive curves, this is the most likely for now. I have confirmed this should be solid for 3 days or a tad longe, or until I post something stating otherwise. Links for 20A, 20B and 20C are below.
HEADER - This is a supplement for 20B
SUMMARY - 3X layers produced this for incoming 72 hours. As of right now, this is much more credible than 19A.
DETAILS - 5/11 orange vertical is CPI release about 8:30 AM ET. 5/12 red vertical is PPI release at same time. Regressions forecast made w/o consideration of events at that time. They just happen to line up...
HEADER - These are time/price limits for low and high for the next 15 trading days.
SUMMARY - This combines everything in 19A and 20A and super simpllified.
DETAILS - This is what the math says at 1882.93 right now:
1. the last 6 weeks I've been searching for that May rally
2. regression curves say the next 3 weeks (15 trading days) will deliver
HEADER - I am still on 19A . These charts need to be saved for later bc they are 3-min and 6-min charts.
SUMMARY - Can't see 1820 breaking by 5/12-13 (next Thursday and Friday). These are notes I need later if 1820 hold end of next week.
DETAILS - This is worst-case bull scenario, meaning 1820 hold for next week and new all time high end of May.
HEADER - The trade here is short at B about 1920-ish (Tues-Wed 5/10-5/11). Close at C 1780 or less (Friday 5/13).
SUMMARY - The slide this morning was expected, but not under 1880. See 18D link below. This situation INSTANTLY makes this move to 1780 55% vs all other outcomes.
DETAILS - I gotta run right now, so no time. Get trading funds ready for this...
HEADER - 90 min to go until FOMC.
SUMMARY - 18C didn't get lower, which really does annoy me. That seems to mean that 5/12-5/17 window is a lower low 1833. We will deal with that later.
DETAILS - Odds now favor low 1849 was the low (for now). 1855 is daily swing low 1920 tomorrow. Then zig zag to another low around 5/13-5/16 (Fri-Mon). All for now.
HEADER - Watching Ferris Bueller's Day-Off Wrigley Field scene on Youtube and whipped this up. Swing and a miss? Let's find out.
SUMMARY - This is five different sets of regressions, 40 min bars, 40 hours out. 1825 (maybe 1815), then 1890 Thursday morning.
DETAILS - This is just a zoom-in for 18A for Wednesday and Thursday. Short until noon Wednesday...