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'I'm absolutely flying now. The ball looked like a beachball travelling in slow motion to me and the Worcester bowlers are in bits having worked so hard to get us to nine down only for Tuffnell to thwart them.'
That's a line from Phil Tuffnell's (the famous English cricketer/Question of Sport jester) biography.
I played cricket and was pretty decent at schoolboy...
Let's have a think about what that means...
It's broken through this ratio previously.
In Feb '16, when the US was allowed to export crude oil and later in July that year.
Let's look at some of the factors affecting the current environment.
There 74% of the US yield curve is now inverted.
There wasn't $1tn of negatively yielding corporate debt (high...
Here we have the Bank Index vs Fed Funds.
What can we deduce here?
Well, banks are likely to be far less profitable when interest rates are falling... and in the Eurozone firms' case, we see profitability dampened heavily with negative real rates of return.
This is likely due to the misallocation of capital that occurs with risk premium compression.
Right, a bit of a congested chart...
In white, we have $XLF, purple, the US unemployment rate, orange is the European bank index and in yellow, we have the effective Fed Funds rate (US interest rate).
Recent rhetoric from the Fed has been pretty dovish, and we have had a pause in hiking rates, with there likely to be absolutely no hike this year.
If an economy...
In blue, we have Eurodollar futures inverted...
This pretty much reflects LIBOR...
What are we seeing?
Well, as US rate hike expectations hit their peak (there is now minimal chance of a hike in 2019 and 2020 hike chances are decreasing), we are seeing a reaction in Bitcoin...
This started back in December, but I really needed a full quarter to see if it were...
Doji candle has shown some indecision before pushing down and breaking a key past support price.
The context of price here is key.
Since we know that a decision has been made here that has pushed price out of a range value, we know that a return to this zone is going to have a fair amount of supply resting here.
Fundamentally, we have to keep the Fed's balance...
This is a Wyckoff topping pattern.
We are going to unwind the move that led to the rally in EUR vs Sterling.
Brexit fears have been price in on the most part, and the Eurozone is looking pretty weak, if not for the ECB propping up the currency with QE still.
I do not think this propping up will end, either.
This is the biggest bullish sign for me since we have been down from the highs.
The inside day failure has a very high success rate of bullishness.
Also remember that CME BTC futures expire tomorrow... CBOE BTC futures last Wednesday caused a reasonable bounce, so look for longs on the NY open.
We've returned to the yearly low zone where buying was found last Wednesday (BTC futures settlement which could have an effect on XRP due to correlations).
This Friday we also have the CME settlement. We will see more contracts expire, which could lead to greater BTC buying now the monthly hedge is complete.
In my view, I'm seeing a move to about $2.40 on XRP....
Last week I noticed a bounce in BTC (and altcoin) spot markets on expiry of CBOE futures.
Essentially, large players are using the futures market to hedge their underlying spot position.
As long as there is a contango (futures price trades at a premium to spot), there's a valid hedge opportunity on any price drop.
This means that if a large player is long a...
Cause and effect.
That's all that you really need to know.
Always ask yourself, 'which area started the move that caused a long term key level to break?'
What is this important? Because it shows a clear supply and demand imbalance at that price.
It shows that there is interest at this specific zone, at which, there is likely to be unfilled pending orders, as...
I'm targeting 80.00 here.
Essentially, we are going to reverse the bullish move made by the ending of QE in 2014 (not the rolling over of assets though).
This is a simple fundamental play, which can also be backed up by the heavy break of support at 91/92.
We should see the Euro push up further from here as dollar hedging costs have increased drastically, which...
Market moved into value tail. Market always wants to get back to value area to be able to initiate further moves. Weekend fear of NK subsided so would expect move off current support where Wyckoff bottom has been established. Intra week I remain bearish, however.