Mansasuma

Mansasuma

- biweekly volatility metrics have been extremely low for several periods now - direction of volaility expansion uncertain though the biweekly gravestone doji provides a bearish bias - downside target 1000 - 1100 - in case of upside expansion it is likely Ethereum trades north of 2600

Mansasuma

- confirmed breakout above key weekly resistance - pure air above and with historically low volatility it is likely the next 4 weeks are vertical - final target anywhere between 1.6 - 1.8t

Mansasuma

- monthly dragonfly doji is a very strong sign - while it is unclear if this is a macro or a market cycle bottom it is likely ETC reaches at least 40$ in the mid-term

Mansasuma

- positive correlation between btc dominance and Bitcoin has been present for the majority of 2023 - since correlation is positive and dominance has broken out of a macro bottoming formation it is likely BTC goes much higher overall - alts to heavily underperform (btc pairs) - final target of this clear dominance breakout between 58 - 60%

Mansasuma

- an update on this analysis: - falling wedge breakout both on price action and the RSI - with prices going back above 19k, FTX´s downfall and contagion seems to have been digested by the market - final target of the breakout is north of 35k - expect alt/btc pairs to get destroyed as BTC sucks up all liquidity

Mansasuma

- accumulate SHIB, sell it for at least a 300% profit in a few months

Mansasuma

- the real fun begins once price starts closing above the m-a pivot (when blue arc holds as support)

Mansasuma

- quite a powerful setup on the weekly: consecutive rising wicks imply rising demand and rising demand implies there are no willing sellers left, at least at this price point - bottom confirmed only if 17.8k is reclaimed on at least a daily closing basis - with the CPI & FOMC coming in on the 13th & 15th of December, it is likely next week´s price action will...

Mansasuma

- Nancy not candidating for another term in Jan of 2023 has so far been interpreted pretty bullishly by the market - overall structure resembles a descending broadening wedge which by itself is a bullish formation - invalidation of this thesis is if price goes below the point at which ol Nancy made her announcement - a new SPX ATH at a time where everyone expects...

Mansasuma

- the chart has been nothing but down only since inception - don´t think it´s a problem of Coinbase being a crypto company either, in bull markets, exchanges make absolutely massive revenues yet it seems COIN failed to capitalize on that - confirmed breakdown of an almost 200 day long range - Brian Armstrong selling the last of his shares is not exactly confidence inducing

Mansasuma Updated 

- everytime this volatility metric touched or even went below the yellow line, at least a 30% move followed, often times much more - because of FTX, crypto is in massive contagion risk - time to find out once and for all if Tether really is backed 1:1 (spoiler alert: unlikely) - be mindful of exchange risks, the only exchanges I really do trust at this moment are...

Mansasuma

- clear macro symettrical triangle that has broken down - with Bitcoin losing key support that is 17.5k chances are the entire market has a meltdown

Mansasuma Updated 

- not much to say, with BTC confirming a downside breakout it is more than likely all alts follow - unlike some, TRX hasn´t fallen too much so there is still time to position yourself short as the R:R is still favourable, SL slightly above the neckline of the descending triangle makes sense - looking for at least a 50% drop

Mansasuma Updated 

- update on this analysis where I was extremely extremely wrong and predicted that DXY would go down much earlier/faster than it actually did - ascending broadening structures usually have a bearish resolution - daily HMA continuation signal provides additional confluence - US midterms likely act as a catalyst

Mansasuma

- after it was announced that FTX was in serious trouble, BTC took a plunge below 18k - while you would normally assume continuation to the downside, in my mind, there are several things off here: DXY being bearish (see this post: ), shorts paying insane funding and total OI almost wiped which begs the question of how much lower can we actually go - confirmation...

Mansasuma Updated 

- massive volatility expansion on the 4D timeframe - it´s likely SOL falls an additional 40 - 50% before the damage of the expansion is done - Alameda potentially going bust

Mansasuma

- clear change of behaviour - not fully confirmed just yet but if price does not regain the white dotted line very soon it´s likely Bitcoin is heading much lower - final target of this downside move could be anywhere between 10 - 12k - black swan event in the form of FTX´s downfall

Mansasuma Updated 

- SBF turning from Batman of the crypto space to Joker - volatility incredibly, incredibly low